MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001176 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news coverage September 29 on the aftermath of the KMT's defeat in Saturday's Yunlin County's legislative by-election and its impact on the year-end city mayors' and country magistrates' elections; and on other local political issues. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" discussed the People's Republic of China's celebrations of its upcoming 60th anniversary and the parade, in which an arsenal of new weapons will be displayed. The article said the display of China's military might "brings little comfort" to "the people of Taiwan and U.S. military personnel who would likely intervene on Taiwan's side in the event of war." An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" discussed the Obama administration's policy to engage China and urged Washington "to send a clear message to PRC leaders that they should respect the right of the 23 million Taiwan people to determine their own future through democratic processes without coercion." End summary. A) "It's Scaring the Neighbors" The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (9/29): "The People's Republic of China (PRC) celebrations of its 60th anniversary on Thursday will very much be a military affair. In fact, Beijing has been boasting that the nation's newest nuclear missiles will be part of an arsenal of new weapons - 90 percent of which have never been paraded before. ... The state-run People's Daily newspaper, however, quoted [General] Gao [Jianguo, executive deputy director of the office of the National Day Military Parade Joint Command] as saying that this unprecedented display of military might is not about intimidating China's neighbors, but rather a celebration of the country's achievements, adding that 'a country's military ability is not a threat to anyone, what is important is its military policy.' This assertion, however, brings little comfort to those against whom such weapons would be used -- mainly the people of Taiwan and US military personnel who would likely intervene on Taiwan's side in the event of war. ... "... For one thing, a decade ago the balance on military power in the Taiwan Strait was still in Taiwan's favor and China had yet to develop, or at least deploy, weapons meant to delay or deny the entry of US forces in the Strait. The situation today is drastically different. Not only has the balance of power shifted in Beijing's favor, but China has become far more assertive and, thanks to President Ma Ying-jeou's pro-China policies, its leadership feels that its objective of unifying Taiwan and China may finally be within its grasp. Should domestic politics in Taiwan between now and 2012 threaten to derail moves toward that goal, and if the US continues to suffer from a weakened economy and a number of taxing military deployments, Beijing may have little compunction in using its growing arsenal to achieve its aims. "This year's parade will also see a greater representation from all branches of the military, with many items having an offensive, rather than defensive, purpose. Generals in Beijing can say what they want, but the fact of the matter is, huge displays of offensive military equipment signal to the rest of the world, and more specifically the region, that China has the means to flex its muscles when necessary. Of the two key factors in a state's decision to use force - intent and capabilities - Beijing is now showing that is has the latter. The main question now is whether Beijing will, over time, develop the intent. ..." B) "Obama Must Not Forget Democracy in Asia" The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] editorialized (9/29): "In the face of the arrival of the People's Republic of China as a regional power, the new United States administration of President Barack Hussein Obama accented multilateralism in his outline of foreign policy during a speech at the United Nations General Assembly last week with his call for 'a new era for the U.S. to engage with the world.' ... However, it is unfortunate that Obama did not shed some light on how his democratic government would defend and promote the democratic values of democracy and human rights in the world community. As citizens of Taiwan, we are particularly eager to see how the Obama administration views the rise of a still-authoritarian and aggressive PRC and strikes a balance between engaging Beijing while preserving and cherishing Taiwan's democracy and substantive independence. In a speech last week to the Washington-based Center for New American Security, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg delivered a 'strategic reassurance' to U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific region and to his PRC counterparts. ... We can appreciate the Obama administration's perception of the need to engage Beijing, but we also realize perfectly well that underlying such notions is the Obama administration's desperate need for Beijing's cooperation on various international issues. Nevertheless, we urge the Obama administration to adopt a more balanced approach when it attempts to engage the PRC. In particular, we urge the Obama administration to avoid drifting toward the chimera of a consolidated bilateral relationship such as a 'G-2' concept with an authoritarian PRC while neglecting America's long-standing and value-based partnerships with democratic allies throughout the world. "Significantly, most U.S. allies have already publically or privately expressed concern over whether Washington has put too many of its bets on China and has erroneously downplayed its relationships with other regional allies. Indeed, the stark reality that there are grave uncertainties over the scale and motives of the PRC's rapid expansion of its military clout and its continued and even intensifying campaign against democratization in Asia should speak volumes on the urgent need for closer partnership between Washington and its democratic allies in the Asia-Pacific region from Japan to Australia and, albeit unofficially, Taiwan. Furthermore, the Obama administration should carefully examine and ascertain how genuine Beijing's willingness is to comply with international norms and whether the PRC actually views the United States more as a potential partner and "hedge" the risk that the PRC sees and treats the U.S. as a threat. ... "What is more worrisome is the possibility of 'trade-offs' between Washington and Beijing. ... It is especially sad to see that Obama has not yet offered any significant criticism of the PRC's gross violations of human rights in Tibet or in China itself. We call on Obama to uphold the founding values of his country and his Democratic Party and express his concerns over China's pervasive violations of human rights during his first visit to the PRC later this year. Moreover, even though Washington is evidently satisfied with the efforts of President Ma Ying-jeou's Kuomintang government to improve cross-strait relations, we urge Obama to send a clear message to PRC leaders that they should respect the right of the 23 million Taiwan people to determine their own future through democratic processes without coercion. ..." STANTON