MEDIA REACTION: JAPAN'S ELECTIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001068 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: JAPAN'S ELECTIONS Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news coverage September 2 on the Dalai Lama's visit in Taiwan; on the Cabinet reshuffle slated to be announced on September 7; on the Taiwan government's plan to fight the H1N1 epidemic; and on the Taipei District Court's verdicts against family members of former President Chen Shui-bian for perjury. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a column in the KMT-leaning "China Times" discussed the new Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government in Tokyo and said neither Washington nor Beijing can tell right now which line the DPJ will take in terms of its future policy direction. An op-ed in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times," however, suggested that Taiwan work hard to "support Washington's 'Japan-centric Asian Policy,'" or there will be huge change in Japan's own Asian policy if the United States shifts to a "China-centric policy." End summary. A) "Japan's 'National Interests' in between China and the United States" The "International Lookout" column in the KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 120,000] wrote (9/2): "... As of now, both Washington and Beijing maintain a wait-and-see attitude toward the [future] policy direction of Japan's new regime. Washington is of course very cautious, but Beijing is close to being quiet and serene, because neither can easily tell which line the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will eventually take in the future. People tend to use the previous words and deeds of key members of the DPJ as a basis for their general and apparent observation [regarding the DPJ's future policy direction]. ... But in reality, those [deeds and words] have nothing to do with Japan's future policy direction after the DPJ takes over the helm. What the DPJ [leaders] are pondering are 'Japan's interests.' What are 'Japan's interests' then? Japan's interests are the resources in the East China Sea and the Senkaku Islands; whatever the United States, Europe, India or even Australia can do to restrain or overcome China's growing strength is in Japan's interests; China's ability to expand its market to accept Japan's exports is in Japan's interests; and China's [decision] not to block Japan's adamant plan to join the UN Security Council as a permanent member is in Japan's interests. "As for the United States, Washington's continued reliance on Japan without increasing the latter's burdens will meet Japan's interests; also, it will be in Japan's interests if Washington can assist Japan diplomatically and treat it with reciprocity. It will serve Japan's interests if the United States does not interfere with Japan's constitutional amendments, and it is in Japan's interests if Washington allows Tokyo to cut back on its expenses on the U.S. military deployments [in Japan]. Also, it will meet Japan's interests if the United States can respect Japan's nuclear principles." B) "The Balance between the US, Japan and Taiwan" Sebo Koh, a member of the Central Committee of the World United Formosans for Independence and the spokesman of World Taiwanese Congress, opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (9/2): "Though what the Japanese prime minister-elect said before the election was alarming, my prediction is that nothing much will change in Japan's policy toward the US or Taiwan. ... Japan has had no unified national strategy since the end of World War II. Its attitude and policies toward other Asian countries follow those of the US. Tokyo's policy toward Taiwan will only change if Washington's does. People say Japanese prime ministers after the war are experts in karaoke -- Americans write songs and they sing them. The danger is changes in US policy toward Asia in general and Taiwan in particular. Though there are only hints of a subconscious shift toward a China-centric Asian policy, even those hints are worrisome. "So far, the US continues to stress the central importance of Japan in Asia, but if there is any substance at all to hints of a "China-centric policy," there will be huge change in Japan's own Asian policy. Tokyo would have to set out on its own or become a junior ally of China. The latter would be a very hard pill for Japanese to swallow. More likely, Japan will become more nationalistic and militaristic. Going nuclear would be unavoidable if Japan wanted to maintain a balance of power with China. It's difficult to imagine an Asian regional cooperative with China as the hegemon and Japan a junior partner. ... Taiwan has to work hard to support Washington's 'Japan-centric Asian Policy,' emphasizing Taipei-Tokyo relations and the Taiwan-Japan-US alliance. Unfortunately, the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou isn't inclined to do so. It falls on Taiwanese, Taiwanese-Japanese and Taiwanese-Americans to try to influence these policies. It will be hard but not impossible." STANTON