ATTEMPTED COUP OR OPPOSITION ROUND-UP?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000975 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019 TAGS: PGOV ASEC PTER ET SUBJECT: ATTEMPTED COUP OR OPPOSITION ROUND-UP? REF: A. ADDIS 379 ¶B. 2008 ADDIS 3159 Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ethiopian Government (GoE) announced on April 25 that it had arrested 35 individuals affiliated with the overseas-based opposition movement "Ginbot 7" who were planning a "terrorist attack" in Addis Ababa. The Government was quick to clarify that it disrupted a "terrorist attack" not a "coup" as had been reported by some media outlets. Without any specific information or evidence substantiating the allegations, we -- and many diplomatic colleagues with whom we have spoken -- assess the move as another crackdown by the GoE on pro-opposition individuals within the military and civil service consistent with other such acts in recent years. End Summary. DETAILS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) State Minister of Communications Ermias Legesse told Pol/Econ Chief that the group was composed of active and previously-dismissed military officers as well as a group of civilians. Ermias reported that the federal police had obtained court warrants on the morning of April 24 and, upon searching the homes of many suspects, found weapons, military clothing, maps, land mines, and documents detailing plans for a terrorist attack. Ermias declined to comment on the target(s) of the alleged attack as the case will be brought before the courts in coming days, but did say that the effort sought to disrupt activities all over the city. ¶3. (SBU) Ermias reported that one of the leaders of the alleged attack was Brigadier General Teferra Mammo while the civilian coordinator was Mr. Melaku Teferra. Melaku had been a leader of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) opposition party in 2005 who was detained and tried along with roughly one hundred other opposition leaders from November 2005 through July 2007. Melaku is currently a member of the National Council of the opposition Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ) party. The GoE explicitly argued that former CUD Vice Chairman and Addis Ababa mayor-elect Berhanu Nega was the driving force and mastermind behind the alleged attack. In response to press reports about police surrounding, harassing, beating, and arresting family members of individuals alleged to be affiliated with the planned attacks, Ermias stated that the police are only executing the warrants which they have received from the courts. BACKGROUND ON GINBOT 7 -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Ginbot 7 is a political opposition movement established in the United States on May 15, 2008 by Berhanu Nega. Berhanu Nega was a Vice Chairman of the CUD who competed successfully to become mayor of Addis Ababa in the 2005 elections. Berhanu Nega was arrested and tried along with Melaku and scores of other opposition leaders. He re-acquired his legal permanent resident status upon being released and pardoned and is now an Associate Professor of Economics at Bucknell University. On the third anniversary of the 2005 elections, Berhanu and others in the Diaspora founded Ginbot 7 (the date in the Ethiopian calendar corresponding to May 15, the day of the 2005 elections). At the founding event, Berhanu stated that the actions of the GoE demonstrate that peaceful struggle is not working in Ethiopia, and arguing therefore that struggle by any means is appropriate for Ethiopians to live freely. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) While the GoE's claims may ultimately prove true, in the absence of specific and credible information, this latest round of arrests strikes us and many Ethiopia watchers in Addis as another move by the GoE to justify the arrest of political dissenters. The GoE has a robust record since December 2006 of doing so within the military. Ref. A offers insights into GoE moves to purge the civil service of those who support the opposition, and even those who do not ADDIS ABAB 00000975 002 OF 002 explicitly support the ruling party, and Ref. B details a late-October 2008 series of arrests of ethnic Oromos allegedly for being involved in plans by the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) to conduct terrorist attacks in Ethiopia. Apart from his fiery rhetoric, we have no reason to believe that the asserted links between Berhanu Nega and the alleged plans for attacks are credible. Pol/Econ Chief spoke with Berhanu's AmCit wife, Dr. Nardos Minassie, who claimed to be completely unaware of the allegations or media reports surrounding her husband and reported being fine, staying at home, and unaffected by the incident. ¶6. (C) As have many within the Embassy, our counterparts at the British Embassy also assess that this current round of arrests are likely a variation on the theme established with the arrests reported in Ref. B. Despite the GoE's claim of having disrupted such a large alleged plot to terrorize the capital city, we have not observed any overt increase in the security presence around the capital. While we will continue to track this case as it develops, we expect that the current case will prove to be more one of political retaliation to further entrench the stifling of political opposition as Ethiopian eyes shift toward the 2010 national elections rather than one of a legitimate effort by the opposition to disrupt life in the capital or target the regime. End Comment. YAMAMOTO