AMHARA REGION TRIP REVEALS POLITICAL TENSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000725 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PREL ET SUBJECT: AMHARA REGION TRIP REVEALS POLITICAL TENSIONS REF: ADDIS 314 Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) A two-day visit to the Amhara region by Poloff revealed a tense political environment. Despite harassment and intimidation by the local administration, opposition party members and officials were numerous in attendance in meetings with Poloff, indicating a certain amount of freedom of association, in contrast to the extremely limited political space Poloff encountered recently in the western Oromiya region (Reftel). The post-2005 election violence remains embedded in people's memories, and opposition party members expressed fear and concern about further violence in the upcoming 2010 national election. Ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) officials in Amhara region insist that the political playing field is open and they encourage opposition parties to campaign. End Summary. Opposition Harassment and Intimidation: A Familiar Story -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) According to officials from the opposition All Ethiopia Unity Party (AEUP),local police, with orders from the EPRDF leadership, continue to arrest AEUP party members. In May 2008, eight AEUP members were arrested by the local militia without a warrant and were held for over ten months without charge. The prisoners were released in early-March 2009 without appearing in court. In addition, 41 people who were detained following the post-2005 election violence have been recently released on bail but their cases remain open. AEUP members believe that the police are delaying the cases purposely so that they can easily be re-arrested. Opposition Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ) party officials reported to Poloff that in a recent EPRDF meeting held in Gonder, the ruling party passed a motion to surveil UDJ Deputy Chairman Mulatu Fisaha and UDJ Budget Officer Tekle Gebru. (NOTE: They claim that they learned this information from EPRDF insiders. END NOTE.) Both Mulatu and Tekle confirmed that they are being followed. UDJ party members in Gonder reported that local police loiter around their office and harass and intimidate people who come to register as party members. Their landlord has been threatened for renting office space to the party, and shop owners who allow opposition parties to meet on their premises are frequently harassed. For example, when UDJ officials started meeting regularly at a local coffee shop, the owner was told by local authorities to stop serving them. One AEUP official reported that EPRDF cadres tried to provoke him by breaking into his compound and assaulting his wife while she was cooking injera. ¶3. (C) AEUP members in Debre Tabor said they did not participate in the 2008 local elections because they did not believe the election was free and fair and they did not want "to make a semblance of a multi-party democracy." Currently they are not allowed to hold public gatherings, but they use market days and church to communicate with their members. In Mesket Tsion kebele, the kebele chairman reportedly gave a speech over the church loudspeaker, telling the people that if they affiliate themselves with AEUP they are "courting trouble." ¶4. (C) Recently, 24 third-year university students in Gonder were kicked out of school after being accused of submitting forged documents when they applied for the university three years ago. Of the 24 students, 20 had served as election observers during the 2005 national elections. Students in Gonder said they felt this action was intended to deter political activism in young people. Several opposition party members reported that in order to be admitted to university or get a civil service job in the region, one must be a member of EPRDF. At a meeting with UDJ in Debre Tabor, seven of the ten members present were high school students. The students reported that in order to register at a public university one needs to present a letter from his/her kebele administration. The only way to get the letter, they reported, is to register as an EPRDF member. The students said that they are frequently harassed by EPRDF members who try to convince them to join the EPRDF. ADDIS ABAB 00000725 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) In contrast to the other opposition parties Poloff met with, the Ethiopian Democratic Union (EDU) reported that they have a "pretty good" relationship with the local administration. However, they seem to lack organization, leadership, and funding to be strong contenders in the 2010 elections. Preparation for 2010 Elections -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The AEUP has representatives in all 22 woredas in the Gonder zone, but only two offices. (NOTE: The party had 14 offices open in the region prior to the 2005 national elections. END NOTE.) According to AEUP officials, in September 2008 the party tried but failed to open an office in Belesa woreda. They presented a letter from the National Electoral Board (NEB) to the woreda administration authorizing them to open an office, but the official said that he did not recognize the name signed at the bottom of the letter (though it had the official stamp/seal) and would not allow them to open an office. Police have threatened to close the AEUP office in Debre Tabor over 30 times. UDJ tried to open an office in Chilga woreda but the local administration accused the party members of stockpiling weapons and arrested them. When UDJ officials go to the countryside to recruit new members, many farmers are afraid to be seen with them, for fear of being thrown in jail or losing their land. In light of these circumstances, opposition parties are unsure of how effectively they will be able to campaign for the 2010 elections. ¶7. (C) In Debre Tabor, AEUP members did not seem very hopeful about the 2010 elections, stating that the post-2005 violence scared a lot of people and they do not want the same to happen again. Sitting in a small, dimly-lit mud hut, AEUP members young and old, male and female recounted stories of their losses. One older woman reported that her teenage son was shot in the head during a peaceful demonstration following the 2005 elections, and nobody has been held accountable to date. Another man recounted a story of his brother being "chopped up" shortly after serving as an observer for the 2005 elections. Nobody was charged and the court dismissed the case. Lastly, one man told us that after observing the 2005 elections, armed militia beat him severely with their guns and did permanent damage to his bladder. EPRDF: A Rosy Picture -------------- ¶8. (C) Gizat Abiyu, EPRDF representative in Gonder who is also the Zonal Public Relations Officer, expressed optimism about the 2010 elections and his hope that every legal political party will participate in the 2010 elections. He added that the local government is happy to assist parties in opening offices. According to Gizat, the EPRDF is "not only a party, but the government." There are 200,000 registered EPRDF members in the Northern Gonder zone. They have offices in all 23 woredas and in over 500 kebeles. The two main objectives of the EPRDF in rural areas are improvement of agricultural output and enhancing good governance. In urban areas, the focus is on reducing poverty, creating an inviting environment for investors, and eliminating bureaucratic bottlenecks. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Opposition parties in the Amhara region are better able to meet and organize than opposition parties in other regions, but they are still subject to harassment and intimidation. We are hearing increasing reports of the EPRDF using coercive tactics to intimidate and scare the population, raising questions about whether opposition supporters will be willing to risk voting against the ruling party in the 2010 national elections. A prompt opening of political space in the countryside is essential for ensuring that the 2010 elections are free and fair. End Comment. YAMAMOTO