MELES TOUTS "GREAT VICTORY" IN SOMALIA, CONCEDES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000697 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ECON ET SUBJECT: MELES TOUTS "GREAT VICTORY" IN SOMALIA, CONCEDES FOREX PRESSURES Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Answering questions from Parliament, Prime Minister Meles' touted Ethiopia's "great victory" in Somalia. Meles said that Ethiopia had achieved its objective of greatly reducing the threat to the Ethiopian "system" posed by the "conspiracy" of Eritrea, Somali extremists and "anti-peace elements" within Ethiopia. Meles acknowledged that the threat of terrorist incidents continues, but assured Parliament that broad pressure on the Ethiopian state, both internal and external, had been alleviated. Meles also asserted that a number of hard-liners in Somalia had moved away from extremism and into the "peace camp." Meles provided a sobering view of Ethiopia's forex crisis, conceding that the situation is worsening and noting that the problem will not end soon. Meles said Ethiopia is focused on boosting exports and tightening access to forex in Ethiopia to ensure that the country has adequate reserves to meet on-going demand requirements. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Prime Minister Meles took prepared questions from Members of Parliament (MPs) at the Ethiopian Parliament on March 19, 2009. Approximately 400 MPs attended, constituting a quorum for the purposes of conducting parliamentary business. The event was open to the local and international press and the diplomatic corps and was broadcast live on Ethiopian television. Somalia: A Great Victory -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Meles, responding to a question from an opposition parliamentarian, touted Ethiopia's military intervention in Somalia as a "great victory." Noting that Parliament approved of the intervention, Meles said the goal had been to disrupt a "conspiracy" of hard-liners in Somalia and Eritrea and anti-peace elements in Ethiopia who wanted to harm the Ethiopian state. "We intervened to reduce the threat of these disturbing elements," Meles said, and we won a "great victory." Alluding to the violence in the wake of Ethiopia's 2005 national elections, Meles said that "anti-peace elements working in Ethiopia against our citizens, and working with (Somali extremists) and Eritrea" were "pressuring Ethiopia inside and out." Now, Meles explained, "these anti-peace elements cannot harm the Ethiopian government." Meles added that Eritrea cannot invade Ethiopia. "Our steps," Meles said, "significantly weakened the anti-peace elements." Meles explained that Ethiopia's victory in Somalia cannot be quantified by numbers of the enemy killed or weapons seized, as both people and weapons can be replaced. Rather, Meles said "'significantly weakened' means that the system in Somalia and the region is not as conducive to hard-liners. When we intervened in Somalia, the Islamic Courts Union had established a system where everyone followed the hard-liners. Now, fundamentally, this has been changed. Many members of the courts no longer support the hard-liners and have moved into the 'peace camp.'" ¶4. (SBU) Referencing Somali unity Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Sharif by title only, Meles said that Sharif has been "separated from hard-liners and disturbances" and now cooperates with Ethiopia and regional partners. Meles noted that Sharif has been to Ethiopia for consultations. Meles added that the hard-liners thought they had tribal support in the middle of Somalia, but now "this tribe" has "set itself free from al-Shabaab." "This is a great defeat for the hard-liners," Meles emphasized, "although we don't say they have been completely removed, but they are no longer a credible threat to control all of Somalia. Even though they can create danger in Ethiopia and East Africa (with terrorist acts),they cannot significantly disturb the system we live in now. We have removed the problem of the conspiracy of Eritrea, the Islamic courts and anti-peace elements from our system." Meles said he believed that the United Nations, the African Union and the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) would have preferred Ethiopia to stay in Somalia, but all lauded Ethiopia's actions. Meles said Ethiopia's relations with each of these entities has been strengthened by the ADDIS ABAB 00000697 002 OF 003 intervention. Meles declined to give Ethiopia's casualty figures for the intervention, stating that "the details are not useful for Parliament and I have no responsibility" to provide them. FOREX: The Problem is Worsening -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Meles acknowledged that foreign exchange (forex) is critical to Ethiopia's growth, but said that over the past ten years Ethiopia had little ability to generate forex and has been forced to take loans. "The structural need must be solved fundamentally," Meles said, "but we won't solve it this year." NBE reserves stand at USD 850 million, Meles said, adding that Ethiopia needs approximately USD 1.3 billion in forex to service its USD 9 billion demand for imported capital goods and services. Ethiopia will continue to develop forex-generating sectors, such as the coffee export market, Meles said, but has been forced to purchase 8 million quintals of wheat, 6 million tons of cement and a great deal of steel, in the first instance, to stabilize domestic prices, and, in the latter, to meet domestic needs. "The pressure on our (forex) reserves is due to domestic demand," Meles said, noting that the NBE has been forced to reduce disbursements of its forex to local companies that need it in order to boost its reserves. Meles acknowledged problems in export growth due to demand destruction stemming from the global financial crisis, but added that some Ethiopian sectors are hampered by the malfeasance of exporters. Meles cited the problem of hoarding of coffee beans by producers and/or exporters as they wait for global prices to rebound, a problem which has undermined the effectiveness and efficiency of the new Ethiopian Commodities Exchange, and pledged that the GoE would seize coffee from hoarders and sell it on the international market to generate forex. "The (forex) problem is worsening," Meles concluded. ¶6. (SBU) Meles said that non-performing loans are a worldwide problem but that Ethiopia is in line with international norms. Meles said that only 10.1 percent of Ethiopian bank loans were non-performing in 2008, and the rate has dropped to 6.6 percent in 2009 (and only 4 percent at the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia). Ethiopia's central bank is working to further reduce the problem, Meles added. Concern Over Religious Rifts -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Ethiopia is known for religious tolerance, Meles said, but some very small groups of Muslims and Christians are working against peace. The Ethiopian government (GoE) has raised awareness of religious tolerance and pursues legal steps to ensure that Muslim-Christian tensions do not flare up. The GoE holds ongoing discussions with religious leaders and asks them to promote tolerance within their communities. "The police are working to safeguard against (religious violence)," Meles stressed, "but society must do its part." Meles Sees No Media Bias -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The GoE knows that radio and television are not able to reach maximum audiences due to infrastructure challenges and government regulatory capacity, Meles said. Reform programs have been designed, Meles said, but he added that "some organizations" are working to prevent community access to radio, although he said he does not think such organizations will be successful. Responding to a question about biased coverage in favor of the government, Meles said "I don't think impartiality is a problem." GoE Looks to Improve Opportunities for Women -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Meles addressed gender discrimination within the Ethiopian government and particularly the judiciary, which has only one female judge. Meles acknowledged societal discrimination against women, noting that "qualified women may face political challenges due to the backward attitudes ADDIS ABAB 00000697 003 OF 003 of our men," but he added that many women lack the qualifications to fill current jobs within government. As a result, the GoE is focused on building capacity for women. Meles said the GoE was working to "demolish men's wrong attitudes" and emphasized that priority in hiring "should" be given to qualified women, "although enforcement will vary from place to place." Meles Addresses IPR and Drug-related Law Enforcement -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In response to a question on copyright protection for Ethiopian artists, Meles said the GoE is committed to protecting intellectual property rights (IPR) and noted that the GoE has an intellectual property office, and has been establishing a legal framework for IPR protection, and has been raising awareness of the issue through public campaigns. Meles said that Ethiopia has few IPR "transgressors" but has "put them before the law" whenever they have been caught. Meles noted that "more work has to be done to pursue transgressors." ¶11. (SBU) In response to a question on drug and alcohol use by minors (under 18),Meles responded that the GoE is worried about the problem and knows that the issue is not the absence of relevant laws, but the capacity to implement relevant laws. "The problem in Addis Ababa in particular is very serious," Meles said, adding that "there are drinking facilities in schools and we remove them whenever we find them." Still, Meles contended, the GoE (and specifically the Addis Ababa city administration) has made significant progress in addressing the problem by expanding access to education, establishing youth clubs and otherwise presenting youths with alternative choices to drugs and alcohol, and working closely with local and national law enforcement. Meles pledged to "do stronger work in the future, and especially (seek to prevent the growth in the use of) marijuana." YAMAMOTO