ADDIS ABABA RESPONSE-SECURITY ENVIRONMENT PROFILE

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 000495


DEPARTMENT FOR: DS/IP/AF, DS/TIA/ITA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC PTER
SUBJECT: ADDIS ABABA RESPONSE-SECURITY ENVIRONMENT PROFILE
QUESTIONNAIRE (SEPQ) SPRING 2009

REF: 09 STATE 13029

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1. (SBU) POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND DEMONSTRATIONS
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A. ARE THERE ANY ETHNIC OR RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES IN COUNTRY
CAPABLE OF CARRYING OUT SIGNIFICANT ANTI-AMERICAN
DEMONSTRATIONS?

-Yes, there is a sizable Muslim population throughout
Ethiopia as well as ethnic Somalis. Generally there is very
little, if any, anti-American sentiment among the majority of
the population in Ethiopia. Only small segments of the
general population within Ethiopia are prone to extremism.
There have not been any anti-American demonstrations in
Ethiopia for the past several years.


B. HAVE THERE BEEN ANTI-AMERICAN DEMONSTRATIONS IN THE
COUNTRY OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS?

-No


C. HAVE DEMONSTRATIONS TAKEN PLACE NEAR OR IN FRONT OF U.S.
DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES?

-No "anti-American" demonstrations have taken place. In July
2008, a group of approximately 120 local nationals arrived at
the front gate of the chancery during business hours and held
a peaceful rally regarding the political situation in
Eritrea. This group was accompanied by local police, read
statements, and departed the area after approximately 30
minutes. This group visited several other Addis Ababa
locations on the same day, to include the UN, AU, EU and
other diplomatic missions, in an effort to draw international
attention and support to the situation in Eritrea.


D. WHAT IS THE AVERAGE SIZE OF AN ANTI-AMERICAN
DEMONSTRATION?

-N/A


E. ARE ANTI-AMERICAN DEMONSTRATIONS USUALLY TRIGGERED BY
U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INITIATIVES, MILITARY ACTIONS, OR BY
DOMESTIC ISSUES?

-N/A, there have not been any anti-American demonstrations in
Ethiopia during the past year.


F. ARE DEMONSTRATIONS GENERALLY PEACEFUL OR VIOLENT?

-In November 2005, there were demonstrations/riots throughout
Addis Ababa in response to dissatisfaction concerning local
elections.
The Ethiopian police and security services responded with
force to quell the situation. Approximately 200 Ethiopian
civilians were reported to have been killed in Addis Ababa.
There have not been any notable violent demonstrations in
Ethiopia during the past year.


G. IF VIOLENT, HAVE ANY DEMONSTRATIONS RESULTED IN DAMAGE TO
USG PROPERTY OR INJURIES TO USG EMPLOYEES.

-No, the above demonstrations and riots primarily focused on
GOE facilities. Some passing USG vehicles were struck by
projectiles and sustained minor damage. There has not been
any property damage or injuries to USG interests during the
past year as the result of demonstrations.


H. IF VIOLENT, HAVE ANY DEMONSTRATIONS EVER PENETRATED OUR
SECURITY PERIMETER LINE?

-No


I. HAVE THERE BEEN ANY ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN THE
PAST 12 MONTHS?

-No


J. HAVE DEMONSTRATIONS TAKEN PLACE NEAR OR IN FRONT OF U.S.
DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES?

-No. The Embassy is located in close proximity (1/2 mile
radius) to several educational institutions and GOE
facilities. The 2005 demonstrations/riots in response to
dissatisfaction regarding local elections occurred within
this radius. In early 2007, student demonstrations (not
directed at the USG) at Addis Ababa University (located on
the same road as the Embassy) hindered Embassy personnel
coming/departing the compound. No Embassy locations or
personnel were directly involved or adversely impacted by
this situation.


K. WHAT IS THE AVERAGE SIZE OF AN ANTI-AMERICAN DEMONSTRATION?

-N/A. No anti-American demonstrations within the past year.


L. ARE DEMONSTRATIONS GENERALLY VIOLENT OR PEACEFUL?

-With the exception of the anti-GOE demonstrations in
November 2005 and Addis Ababa University student
demonstrations in early 2007, demonstrations and large public
gatherings in Addis Ababa tend to be peaceful and well
controlled.


M. IF VIOLENT, HAVE ANY DEMONSTRATIONS RESULTED IN DAMAGE TO
USG PROPERTY?

-No. See Item G above.

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2. (SBU) MACRO CONFLICT CONDITIONS
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A. IS THE HOST COUNTRY ENGAGED IN AN INTERSTATE OR
INTRASTATE CONFLICT?

In January 2009, Ethiopia withdrew their troops from Somalia.
It is too soon to tell what effect this will have on
Ethiopia. Ethiopia is also engaged in a border dispute with
Eritrea. In August of 2008, the United Nations Mission for
Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) ceased operations, primarily as
a result of inability to resolve this dispute in an effective
manner. UNMEE's departure has had little to no notable
impact on the general security situation within Ethiopia.
However, the absence of international observers at the
Ethiopia-Eritrea border eliminates a mitigating (albeit
ineffective) party to reduce the possibility of conflict in
an area with significant tensions and troop presence on both
sides of the border. There have been allegations by the
Ethiopian Government that the Eritrean Government has planned
or supported terrorist attacks within Ethiopia as well as
provided support to various anti-Ethiopian groups. The
Ethiopian government is also currently engaged in an active
counter-insurgency campaign throughout the Ogaden region, where
they have encountered difficulties with various ethnic and
opposition groups. Ethiopia is also experiencing difficulties
with internal opposition groups; some are armed and have
conducted hostile attacks (bombings) within Ethiopia during the
past year, targeting Ethiopian interests.


B. IF AN INTRASTATE CONFLICT, IS IT LIMITED TO A SPECIFIC
REGION OR IS IT A COUNTRYWIDE CIVIL WAR?

-Conflict is primarily limited to the most southeastern area
(Somali-Ogaden region) and the northern regions
(Ethiopia-Eritrea border) of Ethiopia. During the past year
there were several (approximately 13) notable bombing
incidents in Ethiopia, most likely attributed to internal
opposition groups. This was a recurrence of a trend of 40 to
50 similar bombing incidents that occurred in Addis Ababa
during the period of April 2005 and November 2006. A notable
change is the latest bombings were the targeting of crowded
venues during business hours carried out in a manner to
ensure greater causalities.


C. IF LIMITED TO A SPECIFIC REGION, ARE ANY U.S. DIPLOMATIC
FACILITIES LOCATED IN THIS REGION?

-There are no U.S. diplomatic facilities located outside of
Addis Ababa. Combined Joint Task Force for Horn of Africa
(CJTF-HOA) does maintain a presence (uniformed U.S.DOD
service personnel) and facility in Dire Dawa (South/East
Ethiopia) and also a civil affairs team in Awassa (South).
The Embassy maintains five official locations (Embassy, USAID
CDC, Peace Corps office building and GSO/Warehouse) and
approximately 116 residential locations spread out over a
7-mile radius within Addis Ababa. Some of these locations are
located in close proximity to the 2005 and 2006
demonstrations and bombings, although none were directly
targeted or involved. Mission personnel travel on a daily
basis the road where the May 20, 2008, bombing of a local
mini bus occurred, resulting in the death/injury of several
passengers (including one non-official American citizen).
Mission personnel also frequent the area of Addis Ababa where
the two April 14, 2008 gas station bombings occurred.
Several bombings have occurred near the "Merkato Market", which
is a restricted area for mission personnel.


D. HAVE ANY FACTIONS INVOLVED IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS
SIGNALED OR DEMONSTRATED AN ANTI-AMERICAN ORIENTATION?

-No. Although some groups associated with the conflict
involving Somalia and Eritrea are not necessarily favorable
towards Americans, overt anti-American sentiment rarely
manifests itself in Ethiopia.


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3. (SBU) HOST COUNTRY CAPABILITIES
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A. ARE LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES PROFESSIONAL AND WELL TRAINED?

-Although Ethiopian law enforcement and security services
fall short of meeting western standards in regards to
training, they are reasonably competent and professional in
comparison to other countries in the region and will provide
all available resources/assistance within their capacity.


B. HAVE THEY BEEN TRAINED BY U.S. AGENCIES? IF SO, PLEASE
ELABORATE ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF TRAINING.

- The GOE security services have received training from the
USG, to include:

- Leadership development,

- Major case management,

- Travel documents,

- Counterfeiting,

- Land border security,

- Protective security detail operations,

- Cyber-crimes,

- Post-blast investigation,

- Physical security of vital installations,

- Preventing attacks on soft targets, and

- A variety of courses provided by the International Law
Enforcement Academy (ILEA) in Botswana.

During the past year an Ethiopian police officer graduated
from the FBI National Academy.

Ethiopians tend to be enthusiastic students and eager to
learn. The training provided was appreciated and well
received by the host country government and the individual
students. Future training opportunities provided to the GOE
will be worthwhile, appreciated, and applied to good purpose.


C. ARE LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES CONFRONTED WITH SERIOUS
WIDESPREAD CORRUPTION WITHIN THEIR AGENCIES?

-As in most African nations, there is some corruption within
the GOE's law enforcement and security services. Unlike many
African countries, the level of corruption among GOE security
and law enforcement services does not stymie efforts to
enforce the law, and ensure general security and public
safety. Corruption within Ethiopia can be characterized as
petty and cronyism.


D. ARE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES PROFESSIONAL AND CAPABLE OF
DETERRING TERRORIST ACTIONS?

-Generally GOE intelligence services are reasonably
professional and capable of deterring terrorist actions. The
GOE claimed to foil a terrorist attack by Eritreans targeting
the African Union Summit in December 2006. During 2008 the GOE
claimed to foil at least two separate terrorist attacks within
Addis Ababa by internal opposition groups.


E. HAVE THE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES BEEN COOPERATIVE WITH U.S.
EMBASSY REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION AND SUPPORT?

-The GOE intelligence and law enforcement services tend to be
cooperative to the Embassy's request for information and
support, within the limitations of their resources and
abilities.


F. ASSUMING THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT TERRORIST THREATS IN
RECENT YEARS, HAVE HOST COUNTRY SECURITY SERVICES BEEN ABLE TO
SCORE ANY MAJOR ANTI-TERRORISM SUCCESSES?

-Yes. In response to threats to its internal security posed
by extremist elements based in Somalia, in late 2006 the GOE
launched military operations into Somalia and diminished the
capabilities of various individuals and organizations
involved in terrorism. During 2007, the GOE claimed to
uncover and foil at least two terrorist operations targeting
Addis Ababa by internal opposition and Eritrean groups. The
GOE also reports they have detained some of those responsible
for the 2008 bombings. In relation to threat information
targeting the capitol city Addis Ababa in late 2008, the GOE
significantly improved their security posture, and claims to
have arrested several people involved with attack planning.


G. HAS HOST COUNTRY BEEN RESPONSIVE (RE: TIMELINESS AND
ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES) TO EMBASSY REQUESTS FOR PROTECTIVE
SECURITY?

-Yes, the Ethiopian government has always proven themselves
to be cooperative, professional, and capable in accommodating
any request for protective security. When the U.S. Embassy
was named as a possible target for attacks in 2008, the GOE
increased police presence at Embassy locations.


H. HOW DOES THE EMBASSY ASSESS THE OVERALL SECURITY AT MAJOR
AIRPORTS (EXCELLENT, VERY GOOD, GOOD/AVERAGE, POOR)?

-Relative to other countries on the continent, security at
Ethiopia's major airports is GOOD. Access control and
security screening measures are vigorously enforced.


I. HOW EFFECTIVE ARE CUSTOMS AND IMMIGRATIONS CONTROL
AGENCIES?

-Customs and immigration controls at Ethiopia's major
airports and land border crossing are good.

-Ethiopia lacks the resources to adequately ensure the
security of its large land borders, especially in
desolate/remote areas.

-In response to concerns to its security, the GOE has
established and operates security checkpoints on all major
roads leading to Addis Ababa. Most commercial, and some
private, vehicles are stopped and subject to inspection.
While this effort is better than nothing and has yielded
some success, it is impossible to reasonably inspect all
vehicles, goods and individuals coming to Addis Ababa.

-The GOE has expressed concern to Embassy officials regarding
the integrity of border security on its border with Somalia.
There are reports of trading routes that circumvent major
roads and established checkpoints.

-The Embassy has encountered problems on a regular basis
involving the integrity of Ethiopian passports and identity
documents. It is not difficult for individuals inclined to
do so, to obtain fraudulent passports and identity documents.


J. HOW EFFECTIVE ARE BORDER PATROL FORCES?

-Ethiopia has a vast border, neighboring five other African
nations (Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, and Kenya).
Border patrol forces are reasonably effective at major/formal
border crossing areas.
However, a significant portion of Ethiopia's land borders are
assessed as open and porous.

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4. (SBU) INDIGENOUS TERRORISM - ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORIST
GROUPS
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A. ARE THERE ANY INDIGENOUS ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORIST GROUPS IN
COUNTRY?

-No. After the December 2006 invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia,
Al-Qaeda and Al Shabaab extremist groups publicly declared
Ethiopia to be a viable target.


B. IF YES, HOW MANY? PLEASE NAME GROUPS.

-N/A


C. HAVE GROUPS CARRIED OUT ANTI-AMERICAN ATTACKS WITHIN THE
LAST 12 MONTHS?

-No


D. WHERE ANY OF THESE ATTACKS LETHAL?

-N/A


E. HAVE GROUPS ATTACKED U.S. DIPLOMATIC TARGETS?

-No


F. HAVE GROUPS ATTACKED U.S. BUSINESS, U.S. MILITARY OR
RELATED U.S. TARGETS?

-No


G. HAVE GROUPS LIMITED THEIR ATTACKS TO SPECIFIC REGIONS OR
DO THEY OPERATE COUNTRY-WIDE?

-N/A


H. IF ATTACKS ARE LIMITED TO REGIONS, ARE THERE ANY U.S.
DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES LOCATED IN THESE REGIONS?

-N/A
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5. (SBU) OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS
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A. ARE THERE ANY OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS (NOT
ANTI-AMERICAN) IN COUNTRY?

-No. There are several indigenous groups active in Ethiopia
considered by the GOE to be terrorist organizations (Ogaden
National Liberation Front, Oromo Liberation Front) that are not
formally recognized by the USG as terrorist organizations.
These groups have been reported to carry out attacks on
Ethiopian interests and are of concern to the GOE.


B. IF YES, HOW MANY? PLEASE NAME GROUPS.

-See above


C. HAVE GROUPS CARRIED OUT ANTI-AMERICAN ATTACKS WITHIN THE
LAST 12 MONTHS?

-During the past 12 months there have not been any attacks in
Ethiopia targeting American interests.

-In 2007 the ONLF carried out an attack against a Chinese oil
drilling facility in the Ogaden region, resulting in the
deaths of approximately 75 civilians. This attack was
carried out after the ONLF issued warnings that foreigners
who ventured into the Ogaden/Somali region to exploit natural
resources would be targeted. During the past year at least
two international U.S. oil companies (including one that
employs American citizens) have expressed intentions of
prospecting for oil in this region.


D. WHERE ANY OF THESE LETHAL ATTACKS?

-See above.


E. HAVE GROUPS ATTACKED U.S. DIPLOMATIC TARGETS?

-No


F. HAVE GROUPS ATTACKED U.S. BUSINESS, U.S. MILITARY OR U.S.
RELATED TARGETS?

-No


G. HAVE GROUPS LIMITED THEIR ATTACKS TO SPECIFIC REGIONS OR
DO THEY OPERATE COUNTRY-WIDE?

-The ONLF has primarily carried out attacks in the Ogaden
region.

-There is speculation that either the ONLF or OLF is
responsible for the several bombings that occurred in Addis
Ababa.


H. IF ATTACKS ARE LIMITED TO REGIONS, ARE THERE ANY U.S.
DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES LOCATED IN THESE REGIONS?

-N/A
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6. (SBU) OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS
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A. ARE THERE OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS (NOT
ANTI-AMERICAN) IN COUNTRY?

-Yes


B. IF YES, HOW MANY? PLEASE NAME GROUPS.

-Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) - considered by the GOE to be a
terrorist group.

-Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) - considered by the
GOE to be a terrorist group.


C. HAVE GROUPS CARRIED OUT ATTACKS IN THE CAPITAL OR IN AREAS
WHERE U.S. DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES ARE LOCATED?

-Yes. In 2007 the GOE claimed to have foiled a terrorist
attack by Eritrean terrorist groups targeting the African
Union summit in Addis Ababa. During a period 2005 and 2006
and again in 2008 Addis Ababa experienced a series of
bombings attributed to the OLF. In 1996, AIAI placed and
detonated bombs at two large hotels and attempted to
assassinate the GOE Minister of Transportation in Addis
Ababa. These incidents took place near U.S diplomatic
facilities and on routes regularly traveled by Mission
personnel.


D. ARE THERE ANY SUSPECT NON-GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS (NGOS)
IN COUNTRY THAT HAVE A RELATIONSHIP WITH ANY OF THESE
ORGANIZATIONS?

-Unknown


E. ARE THERE ANY ETHNIC OR RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES IN COUNTRY
THAT ARE SYMPATHETIC TO THESE GROUPS?

-Ethiopia hosts a large ethnic Somali population, some of
whom are possibly inclined to support extremists groups
affected by the previous Ethiopia military operations into
Somalia.


F. HOW DOES POST ASSESS THE LEVEL, INTENT AND SCOPE OF
HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES (IRAN, IRAQ, SYRIA, SERBIA,
SUDAN, ETC.) IN COUNTRY RELATIVE TO POTENTIAL ANTI-AMERICAN
TERRORIST ACTS?

-There have not been any anti-American terrorist attacks in
Ethiopia in recent history. If the above hostile intelligence
services are present in country, they do not appear to be
actively targeting us.


G. HOW DOES POST ASSESS THE AVAILABILITY OF WEAPONS AND
EXPLOSIVES IN COUNTRY OR FROM NEARBY COUNTRIES FOR HOSTILE
TERRORIST ELEMENTS?

-Weapons and explosives are readily available in Somalia, and
could be easily smuggled into Ethiopia through the vast,
open, and porous land border.

-There has been information Eritrea has provided weapons and
explosives to various groups that do not view Ethiopia
favorably.

-Weapons and explosives are available within Ethiopia through
underground suppliers. On a recent trip to a local market,
Embassy personnel reported observing live hand grenades and
unexploded ordinances for sale at a market stall.

- Weapons and explosives are also available within Kenya,
Sudan, and Djibouti through underground sources and could be
smuggled into Ethiopia through the vast, open, and porous land
borders.

-The bombings that occurred during 2005 to 2008 reportedly
primarily involved C-4 type explosives.

YAMAMOTO