USAU: TUNISIAN AMBASSADOR PREVIEWS KEY ISSUES FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002981 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/RSA, AF/W, AF/E, AND S-USSE NSC FOR MGAVIN PARIS FOR WBAIN LONDON FOR PLORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2019 TAGS: AU PGOV PREL SUBJECT: USAU: TUNISIAN AMBASSADOR PREVIEWS KEY ISSUES FOR THE PEACE AND SECURITY COUNCIL AND THE UPCOMING AU SUMMIT REF: ADDIS ABABA 02945 Classified By: AMBASSADOR MICHAEL A. BATTLE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) . THIS MESSAGE IS FROM USAU AMBASSADOR MICHAEL A. BATTLE. ¶1. (C) In a December 22 meeting with USAU Ambassador Michael Battle, incoming African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) Chair, Tunisian Ambassador Hatem Atallah, discussed the key issues that he anticipated would dominate his chairmanship and the upcoming Heads of State Summit in January. Besides the widely-rumored attempt by current African Union (AU) President Moamar Qadhafi to secure an unprecedented second term, Atallah opined that Guinea, Madagascar, and Sudan will be hot-button issues. The African Union Chairmanship -------------- ¶2. (C) Atallah confirmed the rumors of Qadhafi's desire to secure a second term at the head of the AU (REFTEL),but claims there has been no formal demand by the Libyans. He explained that this issue could only be resolved in the closed session of the heads of state meeting following the opening ceremony on the first day. Atallah suggested that there is no indication of weakened resolve on the part of Malawi to seek the presidency. Per unwritten AU rules, it is Southern Africa's turn at the helm, and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) went through an internal process to select and nominate Malawi (over runner-up Botswana). Malawi announced its candidacy in writing at the July 2009 Heads of State Summit in Sirte, Libya. Since then, Malawi has used every appropriate venue to reaffirm its candidacy, engaging in a campaign to solicit support from as many member nations as possible, Tunisia included. As recently as last week Malawi confirmed its candidacy via diplomatic note to the AU. ¶3. (C) Atallah said next year's presidency is more about SADC than it is about Malawi. If Malawi were to withdraw its candidacy at the last minute, Atallah opined that SADC would produce an alternate candidate, probably Botswana. Atallah confirmed that the USG position is shared by the European Union in that it does not want to interfere, but hopes that the AU will abide by its own processes and respect the tradition of alternation. 
Guinea -------------- ¶4. (C) Guinea and Madagascar are both similar and different, ruminated Atallah. Both experienced unconstitutional change; however, the prospects in Guinea are more "bloody." Atallah claimed to have unconfirmed reports that junta leader Dadis Camara is "finished" as a political factor in Guinea. Everybody is waiting to see how the new leader (presumably a reference to CNDD Interim President Sekouba Konate) will proceed; even Compaore's mediation efforts have been suspended pending reorganization of the junta. Regardless, the next summit of heads of state will determine the AU's course vis-a-vis Guinea. Madagascar -------------- ¶5. (C) Madagascar, Atallah said, is more about political jockeying. Unlike in Guinea, there is an agreement in place and an established roadmap. The January 6 meeting of the International Contact Group on Guinea could potentially be even more crucial than the AU Summit, said Atallah, and will send a strong signal to transition leader Rajoelina. Sudan -------------- ¶6. (C) Atallah reported that during the PSC's November visit to Sudan, government officials stated that their priority is for a unified Sudan. However, the government would accept ADDIS ABAB 00002981 002 OF 002 the people's will so long as consultations are transparent, fair, and honest. Similarly, Government of Southern Sudan interlocutors claimed to prefer a unified Sudan; however, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) blamed the National Congress Party (NCP) for making unity unattractive. If the Southerners were to choose today, they would choose separation, said Atallah. Atallah added that the GoSS requested that PSC members ensure that the AU and member nations accept the will of the Sudanese people, whatever the outcome. ¶7. (C) Atallah acknowledged that progress had been made in three critical areas since the PSC's November visit (presumably a reference to the referenda on Southern Sudan and Abyei, as well as the Popular Consultations Bills). Atallah's sense, however, was that the window of opportunity to save a unified Sudan remains small and fleeting. He also cautioned that secession would not be a panacea, as north and south would remain inextricably tied economically, and that internal tensions would transcend the referendum on secession and continue to threaten stability. Comment -------------- ¶8. (U) While Atallah failed to mention Somalia in his discourse, it too will undoubtedly take center stage in January as the mandate for the African Union Mission for Somalia (AMISOM) is up for renewal. Biographic Note -------------- ¶9. (U) Atallah served as Tunisia's Ambassador to the United States where he claims to have participated in negotiations on the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). He also served as ambassador to South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia, Namibia, Angola, and Zimbabwe. MUSHINGI