USAU: AFRICAN UNION LEADERSHIP AT STAKE DURING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002945 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/S, AF/E, AF/W, AF/C, AF/RSA, AND NEA/MAG E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2019 TAGS: PREL PINR AU SUBJECT: USAU: AFRICAN UNION LEADERSHIP AT STAKE DURING UPCOMING SUMMIT Classified By: USAU AMBASSADOR MICHAEL A. BATTLE, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND ( D). THIS MESSAGE IS FROM USAU AMBASSADOR MICHAEL A. BATTLE. ¶1. (U) This message contains an Action Request in para 8. ¶2. (C) Summary: With the African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa less than six weeks away, speculation about which African head of state will be elected Chairperson of the AU Assembly for 2010 is in full gear. For the AU Commission leadership (executive secretariat equivalent),the outcome is not in doubt: it's southern Africa's turn and the region's candidate, Malawi, is ready to serve. Those who speculate that Libyan Leader Moammar Qadhafi may attempt to win re-election to a second term are ignoring African Union rules regarding rotation. While the outcome may not be known until the Summit itself, the U.S. and other international partners of the AU have an opportunity to influence the result. End Summary. ¶3. (C) The upcoming AU Summit of African heads of state (January 31 to February 2) will have to grapple with resolving conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, Guinea, and Madagascar, and there will be lively discussions about Africa's integration, climate change, the global financial crisis, and the formal theme of the Summit, namely International Communication Technologies. All these issues could well be overshadowed by a leadership dispute involving incumbent AU Assembly Chairperson Qadhafi, who is purported to be seeking re-election to a second term. Don't discount Libya's ability to buy Qadhafi's re-election -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Within the past week, USAU has had a number of conversations regarding Malawi's candidacy. On December 10 at a dinner at the Serbian Ambassador's residence, USAU Ambassador spoke at length with Ambassador Guillaume Nseke, Francophonie's Permanent Representative to the AU, about the future of the AU. Nseke stated with great confidence that if Libya wanted to lead the AU for an additional year, he was sure that AU member states would consent. He asserted that Libya has been spreading money around to ensure that there would be no serious opposition to Libya's continued leadership. His assertions were based on his perception of the weakness of African leaders to resist the persuasion of Libya. He also asserted that the likely scenario is that during the AU Summit, Malawi would declare itself unable to fulfill the mandate of leadership. This would create the power vacuum for Libya to assert itself as the logical option to ensure continuity of leadership. This, in Nseke's opinion, would provide the needed cover for the African heads of state to allow Libya to continue, as many of them prefer anyway. Assurances from Malawi's PermRep -------------- ¶5. (C) On December 11, USAU Ambassador spoke with Ambassador Kalilangwe, Malawi's Permanent Representation at the AU, and shared with him that the USG and other AU partner nations are looking to Malawi to honor its commitment to lead the AU. Kalilangwe gave assurances that his government would stand by the commitment of the Southern Africa Development Commission (SADC) and that Malawi looked forward to chairing the AU. Malawi has not clinched it yet -------------- ¶6. (C) On December 12, at a dinner at the home of Liberian PermRep Edward Howard-Clinton, the Ambassador shared with the Liberian host and the AU Deputy Chairperson Erastus Mwencha the two perceptions gleaned from conversations with Nseke and Kalilangwe. Mwencha, who is friends with the President of Malawi, stated that he was confident that Malawi would indeed hold fast and assert its right to lead the AU. Ambassador Howard-Clinton stated his hopes that Malawi would follow through. USAU Ambassador asked Howard-Clinton if he was certain how Liberian President Sirleaf-Johnson would vote. He stated that he was unsure because his president has a close relationship with the Libyan leader. When Kalilangwe later joined the dinner, he stated in the presence of Mwencha, Howard-Clinton, and the USAU Ambassador that his government would indeed follow through with its claim and right to assume the leadership of the AU. ADDIS ABAB 00002945 002 OF 002 Rules of rotation will be respected -------------- ¶7. (C) On December 15, at the meeting of the AU Partners Group Working Group on Peace and Security and in the presence of about 15 partner nations, USAU Ambassador shared with Lamamra the two perceptions about the outcome of leadership of the AU. As noted above, Lamamra responded unequivocally, and with passion, that the chairmanship "will go to Malawi as expected," and the AU's "principle of rotation will be respected." He also stated that if Malawi were to indicate that it could not take the leadership, it would be Central Africa's turn and leadership would not revert to North Africa. He acknowledged that it will be up to the heads of state to decide. ¶8. (C) ACTION REQUEST: Given some lingering doubts and outright concern in still other quarters about what a second year under Qadhafi would yield, USAU urges the Department to consider taking the following steps: First, request AF and appropriate NEA posts to approach their host country leadership regarding the USG desire that the AU respect the leadership rotation rules. Second, have a senior USG official call the President of Liberia with the same message as above. Third, ascertain at the highest appropriate level Qadhafi's intent regarding his inclination to seek re-election to a second term. USAU will continue to report on this issue in the run-up to the Summit. MUSHINGI