FORUM CALLS FOR FAIR VOTE COUNTING AND FAIRLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002941

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ET
SUBJECT: FORUM CALLS FOR FAIR VOTE COUNTING AND FAIRLY
ELECTED PUBLIC OBSERVERS

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 2554

B. ADDIS ABABA 2511

Classified By: CDA TULINABO MUSHINGI FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: Leaders of the Ethiopian Federal Democratic
Unity Forum (Forum) told members of the Ethiopian Partners
Group (EPG) the 2010 election could not be free and fair
because the selection of 200,000 public observers was
inherently skewed to the benefit of the ruling party,
including recruitment of unemployed youth and armed militias
to serve as public observers. Representatives of the Unity
for Democracy and Justice (UDJ),Arena Tigray, and Somali
Democratic Alliance Forces (SoDAF) political parties reported
on harassment inside and outside of Addis Ababa in recent
weeks ranging from disruption of party meetings and closure
of offices; to denial of basic public services; to detention,
intimidation and imprisonment of opposition party supporters.
The Forum is still skeptical of the Code of Conduct, which
is now being considered by Parliament to be codified into
law, due to the fact that previous voluntary Codes of Conduct
in force during the 2005 election were not applied and
offered no protections for violations of electoral law. On
December 4 the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE)
granted the Forum a temporary registration for a period of
five years as a coalition which will allow the group to go
forward with electoral activities, including fielding
candidates. The EPG has raised the issues of election
administrators and complaint processing, as well as
harassment surrounding the establishment of opposition party
offices with the ruling party. While the Forum recently
received positive news about its registration as a coalition,
it was decidedly negative in its tone when meeting with the
EPG and unable to elaborate a specific forward-looking media
strategy or a plan for fielding electoral candidates. End
Summary.



2. (U) On December 9, Norwegian Ambassador Jens-Petter
Kjemprud, accompanied by Spanish Ambassador Antonio
Sanchez-Benedito Gaspar, hosted a meeting of the Ethiopian
Partners Group (EPG) Committee One with members of the
Ethiopian Federal Democratic Unity Forum (Forum),formerly
called the Forum for Democratic Dialogue. The discussion was
part of an ongoing dialogue the EPG has maintained with the
Forum over recent months to discuss electoral issues,
particularly during the negotiation of the electoral Code of
Conduct. Forum members present at the meeting included
Chairperson Merera Gudina of the Oromo People's Congress
(OPC),Engineer Gizachew Shiferew of Unity for Democracy and
Justice (UDJ),Bulcha Demeksa of Oromo Federalist Democratic
Movement (OFDM),Gebru Asrat of Arena Tigray, and Dr. Ahmed
Nassir, Deputy Chairman of Somali Democratic Alliance Forces
(SoDAF). Approximately 15 representatives of the diplomatic
community represented their ambassadors at the gathering.


Election Administration Must be Fair
--------------

3. (C) Merera began by stressing to the group that there
would not be a free and fair election in 2010 because the
selection of 200,000 public administrators or public
observers was inherently skewed to the benefit of the ruling
party. He stated that these public observers are almost all
supporters of the EPRDF. Gebru Asrat added that members of
armed militias, EPRDF party members (who are being asked to
resign their membership in order to be observers) and
unemployed youth are also being recruited as public
observers. The election of such observers began in Addis
Ababa and Dire Dawa on Sunday, December 6. Because the OPC
and other opposition parties were issued invitations to
observe the elections only two days before the election of
observers were held, they were unable to participate, Merera
said. (Note: The Ethiopian Herald ran the official election
timetable of the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE)
on November 25 which listed the election of public observers
as beginning on December 1. The electoral law states that
opposition parties have the right to observe the election of
public administrators and observers. Parties also have the
right to have representative observers of their own present
in each polling station, in addition to the elected public
observers. End note.) One diplomat in attendance asked if
it was a political choice or statement not to participate,
since the groups had had sufficient public notice, in
addition to the invitation from the NEBE, but Merera did not
respond to the question. He stated that when the ruling
party is "both a player and a referee" there is no way the
process can be fair. These are the people who will be
counting the votes, he added disgustedly.


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Rule of Law is Not Respected . . . In Most Cases
-------------- ---

4. (C) "The rule of law is not being respected," Merera
continued. "In the last two weeks, our party offices are
still being closed by the government," he said. Many
potential opposition party candidates are still in prison.
Harassment has continued as has misreporting in the
government media. Gizachew reported on party meetings that
UDJ attempted to hold on November 29 and December 6 in Addis
Ababa, both of which were disrupted by groups of former UDJ
party members. When UDJ sought the support of local police,
they were denied such support, even after various requests at
several levels. Gebru gave other examples of increased
harassment of Arena Tigray supporters outside of Addis Ababa.
He said one woman from Hintanowjeret woreda in southwest
Tigray was denied safety net services and dismissed from her
job because her brother was a member of Arena Tigray. An
executive committee member of Arena Tigray in Dedatembien
woreda in southeastern Tigray was called in and "terrified
and intimidated" by the chief of police for two hours in an
attempt to coerce him into supporting the ruling party. The
representative from the Somali Region reported there were a
number of political prisoners in Jijiga, but did not give a
specific figure. He said his party's office in Diredawa had
been closed and that harassment had increased in and around
Jijiga. Specifically, he said Oromo and Somali opposition
party supporters were being harassed by regional government
officials and cadres (of Somali ethnicity) of the Somali
People's Democratic Organization (SPDO). (Note: The SPDO
supports and votes with the EPRDF, but is considered a
separate and autonomous political organization. End note.)



5. (C) Bulcha gave several examples in which the OFDM was
able to hold large public and peaceful party gatherings
outside of Addis Ababa in Ambo and Shishemeni without any
disruption. He attributed the success of those recent
gatherings to the involvement and interest of the
international community, although he speculated that the
EPRDF-affiliated Oromo People's Democratic Organization
(OPDO) must have had representatives at the meeting to report
on the content of the political discussion.


Forum Ready to Debate
--------------

6. (C) When asked by Ambassadors Kjemprud and Gaspar to
comment on the Forum's media strategy, Gezachew responded
that the Forum is ready to debate on any political, social or
economic issue. He noted that in 2005, each party was
allotted only 20 minutes of air time, and that was
insufficient to convey a broad public message.


Code of Conduct
--------------

7. (C) When asked about recent press reports that the Forum
was considering signing the Preamble to the Code of Conduct
(CoC) that was now being discussed by 95 political parties
and will soon be passed to Parliament for signing into law,
Merera argued that the CoC should actually include three
distinct documents. He said the government ignored the
"Professional Administration of Elections" and "International
Election Observation" documents. (Note: These were sample
documents originally presented to the GoE for consideration
by the EPG at the beginning of the Code of Conduct
negotiation process. End note.) Bulcha added that the EPG
was pressuring the Forum to sign the CoC and that they had no
problem with signing it because it "didn't really mean
anything." Ambassador Gaspar responded quickly that the EPG
was in no way pressuring the Forum to sign the CoC, but was
interested in regularly engaging the group in a free and
frank exchange of views about the potential use of the Code
as an instrument as well as the importance of engagement in
the electoral process. (Note: EPG observers in Parliament
on December 14 report that the final version of the law will
not require signature of the CoC by any party before it is
passed into law, making the debate by the Forum about whether
to sign or not to sign moot. End Note.)



8. (C) Gezachew pointed out that there were voluntary Codes
of Conduct drafted by the EPRDF and NEBE prior to the 2005
elections, but they were not implemented and that opposition
party members who threatened to take power away from the
ruling party were shot in the streets and thrown in jail. He
urged the diplomatic community to "be aware of the two faces
of the EPRDF," and to understand why the Forum is so
skeptical of the current CoC.

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Forum Granted Registration as Coalition
--------------

9. (SBU) Just last week, on December 4, pursuant to its
October 23 request for registration as a coalition of eight
parties, the Forum received a temporary certificate of
registration and recognition of legal personality from the
NEBE. The temporary certificate will be valid for five
years. In response to the repeated question from the
diplomatic community about the forward looking strategy of
the Forum now that it has been registered as a coalition,
Gebru replied that the group is still waiting for a response
from the ruling party about its numerous requests to
negotiate bilaterally (Reftel A). Merera reiterated that the
Forum is now most concerned about "who counts the votes" and
he said that until the government provides for credible and
neutral election administrators and public observers, there
will be no chance for a free and fair election. He failed to
directly answer questions about the Forum,s strategy for
fielding candidates that several diplomatic community members
posed.


EPG Discussions with GoE
--------------

10. (C) Ambassador Kjemprud told the Forum members the EPG
held regular meetings with the ruling party in the same way
it held regular conversations with the Forum -- in the
interest of carrying out an open and frank dialogue on the
upcoming elections. In a recent meeting with the EPRDF, the
EPG raised the issue of election administrators and the
process for raising complaints. The Government told the EPG
there was a process because the EPRDF wanted to complain
about "observers who were obviously members of the
opposition." In response to a question by the EPG on the
issue of harassment and the ability to establish opposition
party offices, the government said they would prosecute
anyone undermining the establishment of party offices.


Comment
--------------

11. (C) While it recently received the positive news it had
been granted registration as a coalition, the Forum was still
decidedly negative in its tone when meeting with the EPG.
After two decades of EPRDF-administered elections in which
harassment and intimidation of opposition members and
supporters, closures of opposition offices, and election
observers fielded from the ruling party and civil service, it
would appear that the continuation of such acts has left the
Forum unwilling to seriously engage in the pageantry of the
current electoral process. Diplomats present at the meeting
attempted to press Forum members to elaborate on their
strategy for going forward vis-a-vis the media or fielding
electoral candidates. Instead, the leaders dwelt almost
exclusively on the negative repercussions of the elections in
Addis Ababa of public observers in which they did not
participate due to "inadequate notice." The limited common
ground shared by Forum component parties also likely has
undermined the coalition,s ability to set a proactive
agenda.



12. (C) Even as the Code of Conduct is moments away from
being passed into law, the Forum is still discussing with the
international community its wish-list of other content it
feels should have been included in the negotiations, and
regretting that it has not yet been able to sit down
bilaterally with the ruling party. On the margins of the
meeting, diplomats commented on their frustration at the lack
of forward momentum they are able to perceive from the Forum
leadership even as they should be taking the next steps
forward in their electoral activities. End Comment.
MUSHINGI