ETHIOPIA A DICTATORSHIP, DON'T LET AID ENABLE IT:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000292

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL EAID ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA A DICTATORSHIP, DON'T LET AID ENABLE IT:
OPPOSITION TELLS CARTER

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Ethiopian opposition party leaders told Acting
Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Phil Carter and
Assistant USAID Administrator for Africa Earl Gast on
January 30 that Ethiopia is increasingly becoming a
military dictatorship where dissenting opinions are
suppressed and access to constituencies is blocked. The
opposition leaders asked where the heart of the USG has
been for the past three years, questioned whether the USG
has abandoned its core values, and urged the new
Administration to take a stand with the Ethiopian
Government (GoE) and help the opposition to face a level
political playing feel. With most working together under
the auspices of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue (FDD),
the opposition presented themselves as an increasingly
coordinated front with a common base agenda. They
emphasized their commitments to peaceful, non-violent
struggle for political change and their respect for the
Ethiopian constitution. After recognizing some of their
own failings from tactics used in 2005, the assembled
opposition leaders left Carter and Gast with a direct
request for the USG, at a minimum, to refrain from
providing assistance to the GoE that enables it to continue
to harm the Ethiopian people, and, in a best case scenario,
to pressure the GoE to reverse its mounting
authoritarianism and open political space. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Ambassador Yamamoto hosted the January 30 meeting
for Acting A/S Carter and USAID AA Gast to meet with
political opposition leaders. Those in attendance
included: Beyene Petros (Chairman, United Ethiopian
Democratic Forces (UEDF)),Temesgen Zewdie and Dr. Hailu
Araya (Vice Chairmen, Unity for Democracy and Justice
(UDJ)),Dr. Merera Gudina (Chairman, Oromo People's
Congress (OPC)),Bulcha Demeksa and Tesfaye Fufa (Chairman
and MP respectively, Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement
(OFDM)),Boh Hassen (Chairman, Somali Democratic Alliance
Forces (SDAF)),and independent opposition figures Dr.
Negasso Gidada and Seeye Abraha. Embassy political
officers Michael Gonzales, Dante Paradiso, and Kelly
Folliard also attended.

ETHIOPIAN DICTATORSHIP HAS BULLDOZED POLITICAL SPACE
-------------- --------------


3. (C) In response to Carter's request for the opposition
to describe Ethiopia's political climate, the participants
re-echoed each others' categorization of Ethiopia as a
militarized dictatorship intent on squelching all voices of
dissent. Seeye argued that the GoE learned the lesson from
the 2005 post-election turmoil not to give the opposition a
chance and only to allow the ruling party's voice to be
heard. Arguing that the GoE "bulldozed" political space
after the 2005 elections, the participants insisted that
actions since 2005 -- including the media law, CSO law,
electoral law, political parties registration law, and
banking law -- all reflect the unilateral, unconsultative
will of the ruling party and were possible because of the
GoE's effectiveness in stifling any alternative political
voices in the country. Pointing to GoE and ruling party
impediments to allowing the opposition to access
constituents, hold meetings, or access the media, the
participants asserted that the GoE is violating not only
the Ethiopian constitution, but also the international
conventions that Ethiopia has signed on to. Tesfaye gave
examples in which constituents seen talking to him were
later rounded up, harassed, interrogated, and imprisoned.
The same happens when Embassy officials travel to the
regions, he stated. Highlighting the aftermath of a
January 26-29 Embassy trip through western Oromiya
(septel),virtually everyone who met with the team has
been interrogated after the team left. The police and
local officials warned them never to talk to foreigners
again.


4. (C) The Oromo and Somali participants reported similar
incidents and noted that the GoE and ruling party keeps
opposition sympathizers in a constant state of intimidation
by constantly arresting supporters and claiming that people

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are members of the insurgent Oromo Liberation Front (OLF),
Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF),or even East
African al-Qaeda (EAAQ). Boh painted a picture of the
Somali region in which not even the ruling Ethiopian
People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition,
but it's core Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF),
directly selects the local officials who may run for
office. Those who express dissenting opinions are arrested
and accused of being ONLF or EAAQ members. Around
elections, Boh noted, it is the military that controls the
ballot papers with the NEB just a cover for election day.
Highlighting the huge humanitarian and development
assistance coming from the U.S., Boh pleaded "don't let
U.S. assistance contribute to the crimes of the GoE. At a
very minimum don't help the ruling party harm us more."
Seeye concluded the review by assessing that the GoE's
actions have "rendered Ethiopia a 'sick child' that grows
weaker by the day. There is no Plan B because no
alternative voices are allowed to be heard. Unless change
comes, the international community will be left with this
'sick child' and no contingency for addressing the growing
fragility of the country." Merera warned that "if 2010 is
not more open, you will not see some of us around any
more."

LAMENTING PAST U.S. NEGLECT; HOPING FOR CHANGE
-------------- -


5. (C) Although participants applauded Carter's pledge
That the USG will conduct dialogue with the GoE on political
space, human rights, economic growth and security, most were
quite direct in their disappointment with the U.S. approach
toward Ethiopia since 2005. Merera pointedly noted, "for
the past three years, we have increasingly been asking
'where is the heart of the United States?' Dictators
terrorize their own citizens and the United States has said
nothing. Our dictator talks a good line, but does not
follow that up with action and the State Department has been
asleep in advancing U.S. values lately, only Congress has
been engaged. The USG keeps claiming that it is engaged in
'behind the scenes' quiet diplomacy with the GoE on
political space, but we've yet to see the impacts of that
approach." Lamenting the U.S. silence in engaging the GoE
on the closure of Ethiopia's political space and violations
of its own constitution, Dr. Hailu similarly asserted that
"the USG has abandoned its core values of democracy and
human rights." "For the past three years, the USG didn't
support the Ethiopian people, but the regime by so
obviously choosing security at the expense of democracy."
Boh expressed regret that despite massive U.S. foreign
assistance to Ethiopia, the USG did not lay out
expectations of what it wanted or expected from the GoE in
response.


6. (C) Looking forward, Beyene stressed that the opposition
is not about unseating the GoE or breaking U.S.-Ethiopian
relations, but he did express hope that the GoE will listen
to U.S. concerns now that they will again be raised. While
recognizing that the onus of advancing democracy in
Ethiopia lies with the opposition, the participants noted
the critical role of the U.S. and international community
in pressing the GoE to create the opening for such efforts
to work. "We want to help ourselves to improve Ethiopia,
but we cannot without freedom, justice and liberty. We
hope the United States will help us," Temesgen stressed.
Dr. Negasso argued that "we believe that the USG has
leverage with regard to the GoE; we wish that the
Administration will act multilaterally with other friends
in the international community to help Ethiopia change its
political atmosphere." Seeye added, "we appreciate the
food aid, but we have broader democratic and development
aspirations that U.S. assistance can help us achieve."

WHAT THE OPPOSITION STANDS FOR
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7. (C) The participants emphasized that they do not want to
topple the GoE just to assume power themselves, but rather
that they want a level playing field for everyone to
compete. Each of the participants confirmed that their
parties are committed to peaceful, non-violent political
change and accept and respect the Ethiopian constitution.
In response to Carter's query whether the parties that the

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attendees represent are themselves democratic, the
opposition leaders confirmed that they each represent
parties that hold General Assemblies which select each
parties' leadership and give them a mandate. An
increasingly cohesive block, with the exception of UDJ, the
participants presented themselves as "increasingly a joint
forum" under the umbrella of the rubric of the Forum for
Democratic Dialogue. Several participants confirmed that
the Forum will provide a basis for several opposition
groups to compete jointly in the 2010 national elections.


8. (C) Former President Negasso argued that the opposition
just wants unimpeded legal participation in politics and
the ability to compete fairly. In response to Carter's
question as to what the opposition stands for and what
platform they offer, participants referred to the FDD
rather than their individual parties. Participants argued
that FDD does have a minimum common political agenda which
includes striving for the separation of powers in
government, independence of the judiciary, a security and
defense apparatus that is apolitical and responsive to the
state, broad-based economic growth, and free and fair
elections. Participants recognized that that Ethiopia, and
the Horn of Africa more broadly, face security problems,
but agreed that without human rights, democracy, and
respect for the voice of the people, security will be
compromised. Boh stressed that "we recognize that
democracy does not come over night, but there has to be at
least some semblance of openness to opposing viewpoints
which is currently completely absent in Ethiopia."

MOVING FORWARD
--------------


9. (C) In response to Carter's question of what the
opposition could have done differently in 2005, Beyene
quickly acknowledged the negative role of divisiveness
among the opposition. Beyene noted that inter-opposition
rifts undermined their negotiating capacity and that the
opposition could have been more skillful in its negotiating
approach to the GoE. "If we do not recognize this error of
ours, we will face a dead-end moving forward," he
acknowledged. Looking forward, the participants argued for
a strong continued U.S.-Ethiopia bilateral relations and
stressed the need for the USG to emphasize to the GoE the
expectation that the GoE will act within the parameters of
its own constitution. In the absence of reforms, Boh
argued, this regime will create more problems for itself
and U.S. interests. Unyielding authoritarianism and
oppression will only bring about more and more liberation
movements who forego the option of peaceful struggle as
hopeless, opting instead to take up arms, Boh warned.


10. (C) Speaking with the endorsement of all present,
Beyene argued that inter-party dialogue between the ruling
party and genuine opposition is critical in moving forward
to establish a level electoral playing field. Beyene
argued that the USG can influence the ruling party to
engage in such a process, and possibly facilitate the
actual dialogue. More broadly, participants emphasized the
un-utilized influence that the USG has over the GoE due to
its close relationship and development program, and
strongly pressed for U.S. assistance programs to be linked
to tangible actions by the GoE to bolster the broad-based
conducive environment for stability, democracy, and growth
that Carter laid out as the more-balanced USG emphasis
going forward.
YAMAMOTO