ETHIOPIA A DICTATORSHIP, DON'T LET AID ENABLE IT:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000292 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL EAID ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA A DICTATORSHIP, DON'T LET AID ENABLE IT: OPPOSITION TELLS CARTER Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Ethiopian opposition party leaders told Acting Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Phil Carter and Assistant USAID Administrator for Africa Earl Gast on January 30 that Ethiopia is increasingly becoming a military dictatorship where dissenting opinions are suppressed and access to constituencies is blocked. The opposition leaders asked where the heart of the USG has been for the past three years, questioned whether the USG has abandoned its core values, and urged the new Administration to take a stand with the Ethiopian Government (GoE) and help the opposition to face a level political playing feel. With most working together under the auspices of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue (FDD), the opposition presented themselves as an increasingly coordinated front with a common base agenda. They emphasized their commitments to peaceful, non-violent struggle for political change and their respect for the Ethiopian constitution. After recognizing some of their own failings from tactics used in 2005, the assembled opposition leaders left Carter and Gast with a direct request for the USG, at a minimum, to refrain from providing assistance to the GoE that enables it to continue to harm the Ethiopian people, and, in a best case scenario, to pressure the GoE to reverse its mounting authoritarianism and open political space. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador Yamamoto hosted the January 30 meeting for Acting A/S Carter and USAID AA Gast to meet with political opposition leaders. Those in attendance included: Beyene Petros (Chairman, United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF)),Temesgen Zewdie and Dr. Hailu Araya (Vice Chairmen, Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ)),Dr. Merera Gudina (Chairman, Oromo People's Congress (OPC)),Bulcha Demeksa and Tesfaye Fufa (Chairman and MP respectively, Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM)),Boh Hassen (Chairman, Somali Democratic Alliance Forces (SDAF)),and independent opposition figures Dr. Negasso Gidada and Seeye Abraha. Embassy political officers Michael Gonzales, Dante Paradiso, and Kelly Folliard also attended. ETHIOPIAN DICTATORSHIP HAS BULLDOZED POLITICAL SPACE -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) In response to Carter's request for the opposition to describe Ethiopia's political climate, the participants re-echoed each others' categorization of Ethiopia as a militarized dictatorship intent on squelching all voices of dissent. Seeye argued that the GoE learned the lesson from the 2005 post-election turmoil not to give the opposition a chance and only to allow the ruling party's voice to be heard. Arguing that the GoE "bulldozed" political space after the 2005 elections, the participants insisted that actions since 2005 -- including the media law, CSO law, electoral law, political parties registration law, and banking law -- all reflect the unilateral, unconsultative will of the ruling party and were possible because of the GoE's effectiveness in stifling any alternative political voices in the country. Pointing to GoE and ruling party impediments to allowing the opposition to access constituents, hold meetings, or access the media, the participants asserted that the GoE is violating not only the Ethiopian constitution, but also the international conventions that Ethiopia has signed on to. Tesfaye gave examples in which constituents seen talking to him were later rounded up, harassed, interrogated, and imprisoned. The same happens when Embassy officials travel to the regions, he stated. Highlighting the aftermath of a January 26-29 Embassy trip through western Oromiya (septel),virtually everyone who met with the team has been interrogated after the team left. The police and local officials warned them never to talk to foreigners again. ¶4. (C) The Oromo and Somali participants reported similar incidents and noted that the GoE and ruling party keeps opposition sympathizers in a constant state of intimidation by constantly arresting supporters and claiming that people ADDIS ABAB 00000292 002 OF 003 are members of the insurgent Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF),or even East African al-Qaeda (EAAQ). Boh painted a picture of the Somali region in which not even the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition, but it's core Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), directly selects the local officials who may run for office. Those who express dissenting opinions are arrested and accused of being ONLF or EAAQ members. Around elections, Boh noted, it is the military that controls the ballot papers with the NEB just a cover for election day. Highlighting the huge humanitarian and development assistance coming from the U.S., Boh pleaded "don't let U.S. assistance contribute to the crimes of the GoE. At a very minimum don't help the ruling party harm us more." Seeye concluded the review by assessing that the GoE's actions have "rendered Ethiopia a 'sick child' that grows weaker by the day. There is no Plan B because no alternative voices are allowed to be heard. Unless change comes, the international community will be left with this 'sick child' and no contingency for addressing the growing fragility of the country." Merera warned that "if 2010 is not more open, you will not see some of us around any more." LAMENTING PAST U.S. NEGLECT; HOPING FOR CHANGE -------------- - ¶5. (C) Although participants applauded Carter's pledge That the USG will conduct dialogue with the GoE on political space, human rights, economic growth and security, most were quite direct in their disappointment with the U.S. approach toward Ethiopia since 2005. Merera pointedly noted, "for the past three years, we have increasingly been asking 'where is the heart of the United States?' Dictators terrorize their own citizens and the United States has said nothing. Our dictator talks a good line, but does not follow that up with action and the State Department has been asleep in advancing U.S. values lately, only Congress has been engaged. The USG keeps claiming that it is engaged in 'behind the scenes' quiet diplomacy with the GoE on political space, but we've yet to see the impacts of that approach." Lamenting the U.S. silence in engaging the GoE on the closure of Ethiopia's political space and violations of its own constitution, Dr. Hailu similarly asserted that "the USG has abandoned its core values of democracy and human rights." "For the past three years, the USG didn't support the Ethiopian people, but the regime by so obviously choosing security at the expense of democracy." Boh expressed regret that despite massive U.S. foreign assistance to Ethiopia, the USG did not lay out expectations of what it wanted or expected from the GoE in response. ¶6. (C) Looking forward, Beyene stressed that the opposition is not about unseating the GoE or breaking U.S.-Ethiopian relations, but he did express hope that the GoE will listen to U.S. concerns now that they will again be raised. While recognizing that the onus of advancing democracy in Ethiopia lies with the opposition, the participants noted the critical role of the U.S. and international community in pressing the GoE to create the opening for such efforts to work. "We want to help ourselves to improve Ethiopia, but we cannot without freedom, justice and liberty. We hope the United States will help us," Temesgen stressed. Dr. Negasso argued that "we believe that the USG has leverage with regard to the GoE; we wish that the Administration will act multilaterally with other friends in the international community to help Ethiopia change its political atmosphere." Seeye added, "we appreciate the food aid, but we have broader democratic and development aspirations that U.S. assistance can help us achieve." WHAT THE OPPOSITION STANDS FOR -------------- ¶7. (C) The participants emphasized that they do not want to topple the GoE just to assume power themselves, but rather that they want a level playing field for everyone to compete. Each of the participants confirmed that their parties are committed to peaceful, non-violent political change and accept and respect the Ethiopian constitution. In response to Carter's query whether the parties that the ADDIS ABAB 00000292 003 OF 003 attendees represent are themselves democratic, the opposition leaders confirmed that they each represent parties that hold General Assemblies which select each parties' leadership and give them a mandate. An increasingly cohesive block, with the exception of UDJ, the participants presented themselves as "increasingly a joint forum" under the umbrella of the rubric of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue. Several participants confirmed that the Forum will provide a basis for several opposition groups to compete jointly in the 2010 national elections. ¶8. (C) Former President Negasso argued that the opposition just wants unimpeded legal participation in politics and the ability to compete fairly. In response to Carter's question as to what the opposition stands for and what platform they offer, participants referred to the FDD rather than their individual parties. Participants argued that FDD does have a minimum common political agenda which includes striving for the separation of powers in government, independence of the judiciary, a security and defense apparatus that is apolitical and responsive to the state, broad-based economic growth, and free and fair elections. Participants recognized that that Ethiopia, and the Horn of Africa more broadly, face security problems, but agreed that without human rights, democracy, and respect for the voice of the people, security will be compromised. Boh stressed that "we recognize that democracy does not come over night, but there has to be at least some semblance of openness to opposing viewpoints which is currently completely absent in Ethiopia." MOVING FORWARD -------------- ¶9. (C) In response to Carter's question of what the opposition could have done differently in 2005, Beyene quickly acknowledged the negative role of divisiveness among the opposition. Beyene noted that inter-opposition rifts undermined their negotiating capacity and that the opposition could have been more skillful in its negotiating approach to the GoE. "If we do not recognize this error of ours, we will face a dead-end moving forward," he acknowledged. Looking forward, the participants argued for a strong continued U.S.-Ethiopia bilateral relations and stressed the need for the USG to emphasize to the GoE the expectation that the GoE will act within the parameters of its own constitution. In the absence of reforms, Boh argued, this regime will create more problems for itself and U.S. interests. Unyielding authoritarianism and oppression will only bring about more and more liberation movements who forego the option of peaceful struggle as hopeless, opting instead to take up arms, Boh warned. ¶10. (C) Speaking with the endorsement of all present, Beyene argued that inter-party dialogue between the ruling party and genuine opposition is critical in moving forward to establish a level electoral playing field. Beyene argued that the USG can influence the ruling party to engage in such a process, and possibly facilitate the actual dialogue. More broadly, participants emphasized the un-utilized influence that the USG has over the GoE due to its close relationship and development program, and strongly pressed for U.S. assistance programs to be linked to tangible actions by the GoE to bolster the broad-based conducive environment for stability, democracy, and growth that Carter laid out as the more-balanced USG emphasis going forward. YAMAMOTO