SOMALILAND ELECTIONS: HERDING SELF-DESTRUCTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002313 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SO ET SUBJECT: SOMALILAND ELECTIONS: HERDING SELF-DESTRUCTIVE CATS REF: A) ADDIS ABABA 2092 B) NAIROBI 2009 C) 9/25 MEECE E-MAILS Classified By: CDA Roger Meece for reason 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: With a good deal of activity yesterday stretching into the evening, and despite an apparently resistant President Riyale, it appears that an agreement has been reached in Hargeisa the morning of September 25 to avert the immediate crisis brewing over the issue of a president term extension. Both Ethiopian State Minister Tekeda and the British Embassy have told us they are confident according to multiple sources that a deal was reached and adopted by the Somaliland Guurti, with support of opposition and presidential parties, although neither yet has the final written text to confirm their reports. Tekeda reiterated thanks to the U.S. for our support, suggesting it may have been essential to avert the brewing crisis. He also noted tough negotiating remains, but underscored that the atmosphere of imminent catastrophe prevalent yesterday has been replaced by positive feelings today. Post will forward a copy of the text of the reported arrangement, which the British have promised to provide to us when it is available. End summary. ¶2. (C) Per Ref C CDA phoned State Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Tekeda Alemu September 24 to express support for his and British efforts to reach a consensus agreement among all Somaliland parties regarding election issues and a path forward. Tekeda expressed appreciation, saying that such support is helpful. He noted progress has been difficult with both the governing party and the opposition retreating at times from prior commitments. He added that the latest "hiccup" is that the president and ruling party are seeking to unilaterally extend the President,s term of office for up to one year. He characterized this as "unacceptable," a position he said had already been communicated to the Somaliand government, and he was continuing to address the issue. Tekeda indicated he would be meeting later in the day with the British Ambassador to discuss the matter further. (Comment: We believe the Tekeda message was likely passed, at least initially, to Somaliland FM Abdullahi Duale, but have not yet confirmed specifically to whom he spoke. End comment). ¶3. (C) Separately, British Ambassador Norman Ling told the CDA that he had a call booked to Somaliland President Riyale for Thursday evening, the 24th, to convey British concerns on the term extension initiative. British DCM Marshall provided a read-out of this call to the CDA the morning of September 25, reporting that the call had lasted roughly 50 minutes. Marshall indicated it has started smoothly, with Riyale saying that he had accepted that in fact all the members of the National Election Commission must be changed, and Riyale asserted that he fully accepted the British/Ethiopian proposed memorandum of understanding (MOU),was fully committed to it, and would be ready to sign. The conversation, however, reportedly moved downhill from there, with Riyale also asserting the need for a Presidential term extension to avoid "a political vacuum," saying his current term would expire at the end of September. (Note: The British indicated many observers have concluded that legally the presidential term does not expire until the end of October. End note). Responding to Amb. Ling,s strong expression of concern about this, Riyale claimed the Guurti (upper house) is independent, and that he would not be able to stop the parliamentary initiative to extend his term of office. Amb. Ling reportedly continued to press strongly on the subject, underscoring that such a unilateral effort would likely lead to conflict and increased risk of violence, repeatedly insisting that only a consensus agreement represented a viable way forward. The conversation concluded without agreement, but with Amb. Ling asking Riyale to reflect on what had been discussed. ¶4. (C) The CDA told the British that US thinking is similar, and that the USG would be likely to condemn any unilateral term extension. Asked if London would issue a public condemnation of such an action, DCM Marshall indicated this would have to be considered in London, but given the extensive time and energy put in to achieve a consensus agreement in recent weeks, it was possible. ¶5. (C) In late morning separate conversations, Tekeda and DCM Marshall told the CDA that they had received reports from various contacts in Hargeisa that the Guurti Friday morning ADDIS ABAB 00002313 002 OF 002 September 25, adopted a resolution that provides for an extension to the President term in accordance with terms consistent in the proposed MOU. (Note: No further information on the length of the extension. End Note) Both reported the agreement enjoyed the support of all parties. Tekeda said he believed the vote to have been unanimous; the British DCM believed there may have been some dissension, but concurred that the opposition parties and the president,s party both supported the deal. Both Tekeda and the British noted that they are awaiting final written texts to confirm what they have been told, but both were confident that the immediate crisis had been averted. Tekeda noted that yesterday,s atmosphere of impending catastrophe had been replaced by very positive prevalent feelings, and he reiterated thanks to the U.S. for its support. He noted that this support may well have been decisive in averting crisis, and achieving the immediate agreement. He added, however, that there will still be some difficult negotiations ahead to get a final deal on the way forward. 6 (C) Comment: From all accounts, it appears the immediate threat is passed, albeit with no assurances that others will not appear ahead. The British promised to relay a text of the reported deal reached in Hargeisa this morning as soon as they have it, and we will forward that as available to Washington and Nairobi. End Comment. MEECE