ETHIOPIA - INTERPARTY DIALOGUE IMMINENT ON CODE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002086

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV EAID PREL
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA - INTERPARTY DIALOGUE IMMINENT ON CODE OF
CONDUCT FOR ELECTIONS

Classified By: ADCM Michael Gonzales for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) In early August Prime Minister Meles formally
considered sample codes of conduct suggested by the Ethiopian
Partner's Group (EPG) of Ambassadors. Through the mediation
of the EPG, via the British Embassy, the EPRDF has invited
major opposition parties to engage in negotiations about a
code of conduct for use in the May 2010 elections. On August
21, the EPRDF issued a formal invitation to the Forum for
Democratic Dialogue and two other opposition parties to meet.
The Forum has agreed to meet the ruling party on August 31
to begin discussions of the code of conduct. We expect that
opposition party members will come to these negotiations with
significant skepticism. Opposition leaders have told us that
even if there is agreement on the text of a Code of Conduct
which represents their interests on paper, they do not have
any confidence the ruling party will apply it during the
elections. While these direct interparty talks -- the first
in over three years -- certainly represent a positive step
and an opportunity for parties to directly express their
frustrations, the ruling party,s continued harassment and
intimidation of opposition parties and supporters does not
build our confidence that they are committed to leveling the
electoral playing field. End Summary.

EPG Suggests Codes of Conduct
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2. (SBU) In late July the Ethiopian Partner's Group (EPG)
submitted a letter to the EPRDF suggesting the Government of
Ethiopia (GoE) consider several codes of conduct for use in
the 2010 elections. On August 2 British Ambassador Norman
Ling briefed a small group from the EPG -- namely the U.S.,
UK, Germany, Spain, Sweden, and Norway -- that Prime Minister
Meles had read all of the codes of conduct presented to him,
and decided that he favored the South African code and the
code of the International Institute for Democracy and
Electoral Assistance (IDEA),based in Stockholm. Meles
wanted to create interparty committees to discuss or modify
the codes, create verification mechanisms for infringements
of the code, have sanctions for such infringement, and
finally, have a final code of conduct legislated by the
Parliament on a very ambitious schedule, hopefully as early
as October.


3. (SBU) During late July and early August the British
Ambassador and Charge d'Affaires led a series of discreet
"shuttle negotiations" between Prime Minister Meles' point
people on the Code of Conduct issue - Bereket Simon of the
Government Communication Affairs Office and EPRDF Election's
Committee; Muktar Kadhir, the Head of the EPRDF Secretariat;
and Hailemariam Dessalegn, Chief Whip for the EPRDF -- and
the leadership of the Forum for Democratic Dialogue, the
Ethiopian Democratic Party (EDP),and the All Ethiopian Unity
Party (AEUP). The purpose of these "negotiations" was to
pave the way for a formal invitation from the EPRDF to the
opposition parties to come to the table to discuss the codes
of conduct and to make suggestions on the part of the EPG
about the modalities of such discussions. Some of the
concerns of the parties were that the discussions be
facilitated by a neutral party, who would chair the session,
that the opposition parties be given adequate time to prepare
for the dialogues, how the results would be conveyed to the
media, and whether observers would be permitted, among other
issues.

EPRDF Rushes to Engage Opposition
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4. (SBU) On August 21, the EPRDF sent an invitation to the
Forum as well as to Lidetu Ayelu's EDP party and Hailu
Shawel's AEUP to join the EPRDF on August 22 or 24 to begin
discussions on the Code of Conduct. The Forum convened
quickly and met until late on the 21st, but preferred to
coordinate internally before jumping at discussions the next
morning. Forum leadership communicated directly to the EPRDF
the desire for talks to begin on August 31. This delay of
one week will give the Forum time to hold a communal meeting
on August 28, as well as hold meetings in the south over the
weekend.


5. (C) On August 27, Gavin Cook, Second Secretary at the
British Embassy updated Deputy Political/Economic Counselor

ADDIS ABAB 00002086 002 OF 002


on his conversations with Forum leadership on their efforts
to finalize a letter to the EPRDF laying out issues that
should be on the agenda for the initial August 31 discussions
of the code of conduct. The Forum members have agreed to
speak with "one voice," and to convey to the EPRDF the
opposition's wish for other issues (in addition to the code
of conduct) to be open for discussion. They told Cook these
issues will be presented in a "catch-all and generic way"
that will not threaten to derail the dialogue. The letter,
which they hope to deliver to the EPRDF on August 28, will
agree to begin meetings on August 31 with discussions of
"modalities" of the code of conduct meetings.


6. (C) Cook noted that he received a separate call from
Hailu Shawel's AEUP party asking whether the EPG community
might consider providing a facilitator for the negotiations
from within its ranks. Cook responded that the EPG had
discussed the EPRDF's invitation to EPG members to
participate as "silent and impartial observers," but that the
group had not contemplated providing a facilitator.
Privately, he admitted to P/E Deputy that the he and his
colleagues felt provision of a facilitator from within the
EPG community would be a poor decision given that it would
provide a scapegoat if the negotiations failed to produce a
positive result, a sentiment that we share.

COMMENT
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7. (C) The opposition parties have been seeking a forum for
dialogue with the ruling party for the past three years, an
issue that we have also pushed. While the May 2010 elections
are certainly looming, the EPRDF,s request for the Forum to
come to the negotiating table with one day's notice was
unrealistic. Forum members have noted that they will come to
these discussions with quite a bit of skepticism.
Conversations with opposition leaders in recent weeks have
revealed that even if they can hammer out a Code of Conduct
which they feel represents their interests on paper, they do
not have any confidence the ruling party will apply it during
the elections. One particular worry that several have
expressed is that if the code is not implemented or enforced,
opposition parties may again opt to boycott the elections
rather than endorse a clearly manipulated process. If
Parliament invokes a Code of Conduct into law which requires
political parties to participate in elections, the law could
be used to shut down and deregister parties who do boycott.
While these direct interparty talks -- the first in over
three years -- certainly represent a positive step and an
opportunity for parties to directly express their
frustrations, the ruling party,s continued harassment and
intimidation of opposition parties and supporters does not
build our confidence that they are committed to leveling the
electoral playing field. End Comment.
MEECE