MADAGASCAR POLITICAL RIVALS AGREE TO MEET IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001745 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/E, AF/S AND AF/RSA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MA AU SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR POLITICAL RIVALS AGREE TO MEET IN MOZAMBIQUE REF: ANTANANARIVO 526 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The second International Contact Group meeting on Madagascar hosted by the African Union (AU) July 22 condemned the violence occurring in Madagascar, called on all parties to refrain from extremism, expressed concern about arbitrary arrests, welcomed the appointment of former Mozambique President Joaquim Chissano as SADC mediator, and decided that a meeting between the country's four principal political rivals (Ravalomanana, Ratsiraka, Zafy, and Rajoelina) under Chissano's leadership, would take place in Mozambique by the first week of August. In a preparatory meeting of the EU, France, UK, and the US, France indicated that it intended to continue its military assistance to Madagascar and denied any involvement in supporting the coup. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) The AU hosted the second meeting of the International Contact Group (ICG) on Madagascar July 22 in Addis Ababa. In preparation for the meeting, the French Ambassador to the AU hosted a dinner with three special envoys (OIF, UN, AU) and EU and American representatives July 21, and the EU hosted a meeting with French, British, and American diplomats the morning of the 22nd. These efforts helped to bring the international community to consensus on the main points to be included in the communique resulting from the ICG meeting, including the need for a consensual political process leading to fair and free elections, a warning against unilateral moves, and a condemnation of those who inflame the situation by using violence and extreme measures. ¶3. (SBU) Although agreement was reached on the main points, there was disagreement on the idea of singling out the high transition authority (HAT) by calling for its continued isolation, and on calling for international partners to suspend military assistance. In the morning meeting of July 22, French Elysee representative Remi Marechaux made it clear that France had no intention of suspending its military assistance to Madagascar, and argued that the plane given to the Malagasy in February was given prior to the coup and that, despite rumors to the contrary, France was not involved in fomenting or supporting the coup. Although all participants of the meeting hosted by the EU agreed that the naming of President Chissano as a mediator was a positive step, France supported the view that the AU should maintain the lead role, instead of SADC, unless the AU clearly decided to delegate that role. ¶4. (SBU) AU Commission Chairperson Jean Ping opened the ICG meeting by calling for a "spirit of compromise" and rejecting "unilateralism" in the resolution of the Malagasy crisis. The four envoys (OIF, UN, AU, SADC),as well as SADC mediator Chissano, then briefed the participants on the events that had transpired since the last ICG meeting April 30. Chissano explained that the four Malagasy political rivals had agreed to meet in Mozambique to move discussions forward. UN Special Envoy Tiebile Drame lamented that the decision made in May that all four protagonists would be able to participate in future presidential elections was the root of current violence and instability. He also asserted that the key to resolving the current impasse was to reach agreement that none of the four would run for president. Such an agreement would pave the way for a deal on amnesty, an issue which had derailed the negotiations in June. (Comment: While a good idea, it is unlikely to be accepted by Rajoelina or Ravalomanana. End comment.) ¶5. (SBU) The participants were then given a chance to comment; French Elysee representative Marechaux said that France was opposed to unilateral solutions, expressed concern about the deterioration of the economic situation, particularly with the threats of EU aid suspension under the Cotonou agreement and the potential loss of AGOA benefits, and saluted the appointment of Chissano as SADC mediator. (Comment: Marechaux took the lead speaking role, rather than the A/S equivalent from the Quai D'Orsay Stephane Gompertz, who was also present, indicating the French presidency's interest in the issue. End comment.) Ambassador Yamamoto welcomed the leadership of Chissano, seconded the EU's point that the Malagasy should take ownership of the process, called for a consensual political process leading to free and fair elections, raised concerns of human rights abuses, ADDIS ABAB 00001745 002 OF 002 violence, and arbitrary searches and seizures, called for the restoration of rule of law, and mentioned the measures the USG had taken to pressure the HAT by suspending aid. The British supported these points and called for urgent action. The EU warned against unilateral actions and reiterated concerns about human rights abuses and violence. ¶6. (SBU) Following those comments, the leaders of the Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana delegations, the only two present as the HAT boycotted and Zafy's delegation reportedly encountered logistical problems, were invited in to speak. Ratsiraka's representative called for the annulment of all legal charges against Ratsiraka and his supporters as a prerequisite to negotiations. Ravalomanana's representative expressed concern about the lack of the HAT's political will to negotiate, as shown by their absence in Addis, and the threats, intimidation, and arrests of Ravalomanana supporters. ¶7. (SBU) During the discussion about the communique, it was agreed that a mission led by SADC, the AU, OIF, and the UN would travel to Madagascar the last week of July to prepare for the meeting of the four principals in Mozambique to be held no later than the first week of August. Chissano requested international support for this meeting, to which the EU responded favorably, but without commitment. The text of the communique will be forwarded by email separately once received. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: Although the envoys were opposed to singling out and strongly condemning the HAT for fear of alienating them prior to negotiations, and the question of whether SADC or the AU has the lead was not clearly resolved, the results of the ICG-Madagascar were overall positive. The agreement by the four presidents and transition leader to meet face to face in Mozambique in August, finalized while the ICG was in progress, and the ICG's support for Chissano's lead on this meeting, were breakthroughs that will hopefully be put into action. End comment. YAMAMOTO