USAU: AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL ON CHAIRMAN PING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 000143


AF/FO FOR PCARTER, AF/RSA FOR PBARLERIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU
SUBJECT: USAU: AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL ON CHAIRMAN PING

Classified By: Ambassador John A. Simon for reasons 1.4 (B)&(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On January 17 the Ambassador paid a
farewell call on African Union Chairman, Jean Ping. In a
wide-ranging conversation the Chairman confided he
anticipates the January AU Summit will be difficult. While
cautiously optimistic about the progress being made on
peacekeeping in Somalia, Ping is concerned about the twin
problems of Zimbabwe and Mauritania. He noted the divergence
of views among AU member states as a serious liability. The
Chairman also told the Ambassador he does not foresee a
resolution of the debate on a Union Government for Africa,
despite the special one-day session devoted to the topic. He
outlined four possible alternate scenarios for the election
of the next Chairman. Finally, Ping noted the exceedingly
high expectations AU members have for the incoming US
administration, and commented he hoped US policy style would
focus on enhanced engagement in Africa rather than
confrontation. END SUMMARY.

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THE SUMMIT WILL BE DIFFICULT
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2. (C) On January 17 Ambassador Simon made his farewell
call on the Chairman of the AU Commission (AUC),Jean Ping.
The Chairman was coming directly from Qatar, and was
proceeding immediately to Kuwait. The Chairman was not at
all forthcoming about the deliberations on Sudan, but he did
volunteer that Mauritania's Aziz had attended the meeting in
Qatar. In his opinion, Aziz is maneuvering for Arab League
support (Mauritania's freezing of diplomatic relations with
Israel being one element in this gambit) with the intention
of pressuring the AU to modify its stance vis a vis
recognizing the coup government and seating representatives
at the Summit. The Ambassador urged the AU to stay the
course, and Ping indicated it would.


3. (C) Ping said he anticipated the January 2009 Summit
would be difficult as a number of "controversial and
dangerous" issues confronted it. Among those issues is the
February 1 Heads of State debate on Union Government. Ping
told the Ambassador he cannot imagine how the member states
will reach consensus on the issue. He then noted that Heads
of State also were scheduled to discuss the integration of
NEPAD, the AU Audit, and the budget, each of which presents
problems of divergent views.

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POLITICAL MINEFIELDS -- SOMALIA, MAURITANIA, ZIMBABWE
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4. (SBU) On Somalia, Ping was cautiously optimistic. He
said he personally had talked with the Presidents of Ghana
and Burkino Faso and had reason to believe the two states
would contribute battalions. He also said talks with Nigeria
soliciting support for AMISOM had been fruitful, while
increased logistic contributions from Egypt were "almost
agreed."


5. (SBU) With respect to Zimbabwe, Ping believes it will be
a problem at the Summit. On the protocol front, it is
difficult to see how President Mugabe and Prime Minister
Tsangari might occupy the two chairs in the plenary hall
until and unless the power-sharing negotiations have been
successfully concluded. Ping also pointed out that Tsangari
has not yet been sworn in as Prime Minister, and the AU
member states are divided on whether he could occupy any seat
until he is. The Ambassador reiterated the US position that
Mugabe should step aside to allow for a credible
power-sharing deal and commented it is difficult to see how
Mugabe can be considered a credible partner at this point.


6. (SBU) The situation in Mauritania remains a concern for
the AU. As noted in para 2 above, Ping believes the coup
leadership continues to maneuver internationally and
specifically within the Arab League for acceptance of a fait
accompli, but he also believes the AU will hold to its
position of suspending coup governments from AU membership.


7. (SBU) The Chairman acknowledged 2008 had been a
challenging year for the AU with three coups in the last six
months, but was upbeat about the recent elections in Ghana.
He noted the Ghana election was the "best example" of a
democratic success to date, as a close election had resulted
in a peaceful transfer of power to the opposition party. He
noted that while the elections in Angola and Zambia had also
been good, in the first instance the opposition was weak so
there was no anticipation of a change of government and in
Zambia the election had changed only the President, not the
party in power.

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THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE AFRICAN UNION
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8. (C) Chairman Ping outlined the four possibilities for
the selection for the next AU Chairmanship. The Chairmanship
rotates among regions on an annual basis. It is North
Africa's turn. However, the North African states have not
agreed on a candidate. Oumar Qadhafi is the most probable,
but he is a controversial pick. Ping said Qadhafi himself is
hesitant and has suggested that the AU's current Chair,
Tanzania's President Kikwete, serve a second term. Among
other variables impacting the North Africans' ability to
select a candidate from the region: neither Egypt's President
nor Tunisia's attend Summits in Addis, and Algeria is
involved in elections. While Qadhafi has proposed a second
term for Kikwete (there is precedent),according to Ping, a
number of member states oppose this option, saying it
suggests that among the fifty-three member states there are
not qualified alternative candidates. A further option, for
which precedent also exists, is to default the selection to
the next region in the annual rotation. In this case, the
Chairmanship would go to a Southern African Head of State.
From his comments, it appears Ping believes this is the most
likely scenario. Ping commented that being Chair of the AU
(not the AUC) need not be a difficult task, as the Chair
relies on the Commission and can opt for a high or low level
of activity and involvement in AU matters.

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HIGH EXPECTATIONS
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9. (C) Commenting on the incoming US Administration, Ping
noted the exceptionally high expectations among African
states for the Obama presidency, and expressed hope the US
policy in Africa will continue to be one of active sustained
engagement. He worried briefly about the possibility it
could default to a style of confrontation (which he linked
obliquely to previous administrations). He also expressed
concern that given the current global financial crisis,
African states were unlikely to meet their MDG goals, and
worried that the significant developments in Africa since the
1990's remain vulnerable to economic pressures. He concluded
the AU and the US have numerous priorities in common --
fighting terrorism , addressing climate change, and combating
drug trafficking -- and urged that a "global coalition"
including the US, Africa, and Asia work in concert on these
and other issues.


YAMAMOTO