USAU: AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL ON CHAIRMAN PING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 000143 AF/FO FOR PCARTER, AF/RSA FOR PBARLERIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL AU SUBJECT: USAU: AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL ON CHAIRMAN PING Classified By: Ambassador John A. Simon for reasons 1.4 (B)&(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On January 17 the Ambassador paid a farewell call on African Union Chairman, Jean Ping. In a wide-ranging conversation the Chairman confided he anticipates the January AU Summit will be difficult. While cautiously optimistic about the progress being made on peacekeeping in Somalia, Ping is concerned about the twin problems of Zimbabwe and Mauritania. He noted the divergence of views among AU member states as a serious liability. The Chairman also told the Ambassador he does not foresee a resolution of the debate on a Union Government for Africa, despite the special one-day session devoted to the topic. He outlined four possible alternate scenarios for the election of the next Chairman. Finally, Ping noted the exceedingly high expectations AU members have for the incoming US administration, and commented he hoped US policy style would focus on enhanced engagement in Africa rather than confrontation. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE SUMMIT WILL BE DIFFICULT -------------- ¶2. (C) On January 17 Ambassador Simon made his farewell call on the Chairman of the AU Commission (AUC),Jean Ping. The Chairman was coming directly from Qatar, and was proceeding immediately to Kuwait. The Chairman was not at all forthcoming about the deliberations on Sudan, but he did volunteer that Mauritania's Aziz had attended the meeting in Qatar. In his opinion, Aziz is maneuvering for Arab League support (Mauritania's freezing of diplomatic relations with Israel being one element in this gambit) with the intention of pressuring the AU to modify its stance vis a vis recognizing the coup government and seating representatives at the Summit. The Ambassador urged the AU to stay the course, and Ping indicated it would. ¶3. (C) Ping said he anticipated the January 2009 Summit would be difficult as a number of "controversial and dangerous" issues confronted it. Among those issues is the February 1 Heads of State debate on Union Government. Ping told the Ambassador he cannot imagine how the member states will reach consensus on the issue. He then noted that Heads of State also were scheduled to discuss the integration of NEPAD, the AU Audit, and the budget, each of which presents problems of divergent views. -------------- -------------- POLITICAL MINEFIELDS -- SOMALIA, MAURITANIA, ZIMBABWE -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On Somalia, Ping was cautiously optimistic. He said he personally had talked with the Presidents of Ghana and Burkino Faso and had reason to believe the two states would contribute battalions. He also said talks with Nigeria soliciting support for AMISOM had been fruitful, while increased logistic contributions from Egypt were "almost agreed." ¶5. (SBU) With respect to Zimbabwe, Ping believes it will be a problem at the Summit. On the protocol front, it is difficult to see how President Mugabe and Prime Minister Tsangari might occupy the two chairs in the plenary hall until and unless the power-sharing negotiations have been successfully concluded. Ping also pointed out that Tsangari has not yet been sworn in as Prime Minister, and the AU member states are divided on whether he could occupy any seat until he is. The Ambassador reiterated the US position that Mugabe should step aside to allow for a credible power-sharing deal and commented it is difficult to see how Mugabe can be considered a credible partner at this point. ¶6. (SBU) The situation in Mauritania remains a concern for the AU. As noted in para 2 above, Ping believes the coup leadership continues to maneuver internationally and specifically within the Arab League for acceptance of a fait accompli, but he also believes the AU will hold to its position of suspending coup governments from AU membership. ¶7. (SBU) The Chairman acknowledged 2008 had been a challenging year for the AU with three coups in the last six months, but was upbeat about the recent elections in Ghana. He noted the Ghana election was the "best example" of a democratic success to date, as a close election had resulted in a peaceful transfer of power to the opposition party. He noted that while the elections in Angola and Zambia had also been good, in the first instance the opposition was weak so there was no anticipation of a change of government and in Zambia the election had changed only the President, not the party in power. -------------- THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE AFRICAN UNION -------------- ¶8. (C) Chairman Ping outlined the four possibilities for the selection for the next AU Chairmanship. The Chairmanship rotates among regions on an annual basis. It is North Africa's turn. However, the North African states have not agreed on a candidate. Oumar Qadhafi is the most probable, but he is a controversial pick. Ping said Qadhafi himself is hesitant and has suggested that the AU's current Chair, Tanzania's President Kikwete, serve a second term. Among other variables impacting the North Africans' ability to select a candidate from the region: neither Egypt's President nor Tunisia's attend Summits in Addis, and Algeria is involved in elections. While Qadhafi has proposed a second term for Kikwete (there is precedent),according to Ping, a number of member states oppose this option, saying it suggests that among the fifty-three member states there are not qualified alternative candidates. A further option, for which precedent also exists, is to default the selection to the next region in the annual rotation. In this case, the Chairmanship would go to a Southern African Head of State. From his comments, it appears Ping believes this is the most likely scenario. Ping commented that being Chair of the AU (not the AUC) need not be a difficult task, as the Chair relies on the Commission and can opt for a high or low level of activity and involvement in AU matters. -------------- HIGH EXPECTATIONS -------------- ¶9. (C) Commenting on the incoming US Administration, Ping noted the exceptionally high expectations among African states for the Obama presidency, and expressed hope the US policy in Africa will continue to be one of active sustained engagement. He worried briefly about the possibility it could default to a style of confrontation (which he linked obliquely to previous administrations). He also expressed concern that given the current global financial crisis, African states were unlikely to meet their MDG goals, and worried that the significant developments in Africa since the 1990's remain vulnerable to economic pressures. He concluded the AU and the US have numerous priorities in common -- fighting terrorism , addressing climate change, and combating drug trafficking -- and urged that a "global coalition" including the US, Africa, and Asia work in concert on these and other issues. YAMAMOTO