AU PANEL OF THE WISE REPORTS ON ELECTION-RELATED

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 001334


STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/RSA, AND DRL/MLGA
ALSO PASS TO USAID FOR AFR/SD AND AFR/DP

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM EAID AU
SUBJECT: AU PANEL OF THE WISE REPORTS ON ELECTION-RELATED
DISPUTES IN AFRICA


1. The African Union's Panel of the Wise has completed a
report examining election-related disputes and violent
conflict that often characterize electoral processes in
Africa. One of the report's major recommendations is to
strengthen Africa's capacities at the national, regional and
continental levels to observe and monitor elections.
Currently, the AU's primary vehicle for observing and
monitoring elections -- the Democracy and Electoral
Assistance Unit (DEAU)-- lacks the necessary internal and
external funding to support its goal of sending observer
missions to more than a dozen countries where elections are
scheduled this year alone. Even the five-member Panel of the
Wise, which was formed in 2007 as an instrument of conflict
prevention, only has one support staff and a limited travel
budget.


2. Panel member and former Organization of African Unity
Secretary General Salim Ahmed Salim acknowledged these
challenges during a briefing on the report for AU
international partners on June 5. Election monitoring and
mediation efforts require adequate resources to be effective,
Salim said. The DEAU has insufficient funds to carry out
necessary training for election observers. As a result,
election missions have been of very short duration and lack
professional expertise, calling into question the credibility
of their assessments of election outcomes. Given resource
constraints, the AU would do better to focus on those
elections that are likely to produce conflict and violence,
Salim said. (Note: The AU Political Affairs Department has
told USAU that it would be politically difficult not to send
an observer mission to all elections. End Note.)


3. Panel of the Wise mediation efforts likewise suffer from
inadequate support. "We need to have the competence and the
professional capacity," Salim said. The Panel's lone support
staff cannot juggle the relentless demands of the office, he
continued, blaming the AU's slow recruiting practices as well
as the AU's own capacity to support this endeavor. The AU is
"ill-equipped" to prevent conflict, Salim asserted. "The AU
has good intentions, but it does not have the wherewithal."


4. Responding to a question about the AU observer missions'
assessment of last April's presidential election in Algeria,
Salim conceded that the AU undermined its own credibility by
declaring that the election was "free and fair." Salim said
constitutional changes are not, by themselves, a problem
unless the person behind the changes is seeking to remain in
office longer, such as in the case of Algerian President
Bouteflika.


5. The draft report, entitled "Strengthening the Role of the
African Union in the Prevention, Management, and Resolution
of Election-related Disputes and Violent Conflicts in
Africa," has been approved by the AU Peace and Security
Council and will now be on the agenda of this summer's AU
Summit in Libya. USAU has forwarded a copy of the draft
report to DRL/MLGA and AF/RSA, as well as to USAID AFR/SD..


6. Comment: As part of our support for the AU Peace and
Security Architecture (APSA),the USG has provided a small
grant to the AU which funded preventive diplomacy envoys to
the Comoros and Central African Republic. Similarly, the USG
is providing technical assistance through International
Foundation for Electoral Systems to establish and support the
DEAU. The USG is also providing equipment and software to
the AU's Conflict Management Division for their Continental
Early Warning System. Other partners, such as the European
Union, have pledged tens of millions of Euros toward APSA.
This latest report by the Panel of the Wise suggests that
international partners could do much more to support APSA,
particularly in the area of preventive diplomacy and early
warning programs. Our AU interlocutors often remind us that
greater investment in conflict prevention could dramatically
decrease the cost of addressing a full-fledged conflict.


YAMAMOTO