SOMALIA: NEGOTIATIONS STALLED BETWEEN THE TFG AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 001238

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2019
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: NEGOTIATIONS STALLED BETWEEN THE TFG AND
ASWJ

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C/NF) Summary. As of May 26, negotiations in Addis
Ababa between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and
Alhu Sunnah Wal Jammah (ASWJ) were stalled because ASWJ was
demanding the prime ministership and senior cabinet positions
in a potential coalition government, demands that the TFG was
unprepared to meet. The Ambassador and visiting Embassy
Nairobi Somalia Unit Chief met with both sides and the
Ethiopian government in a series of meetings on May 20-21.
Both the TFG and ASWJ remain eager to come to an agreement
because both sides recognize that they need each other's
support to defeat al-Shabaab. The Ethiopian government also
recognizes the value of a TFG-ASWJ alliance and is pressuring
both sides to make a deal as soon as possible. Embassy Addis
Ababa, in close consultation with Embassy Nairobi, will
continue to push the parties to find a compromise, and at
least begin military cooperation now. End Summary.

ASWJ Seeking Power Sharing Arrangement, Distrustful of TFG
-------------- --------------


2. (C/NF) The self-described ASWJ leadership council on May
20 said they were ready to fight side-by-side with the TFG
provided a power-sharing arrangement could be agreed upon
that gave ASWJ cabinet posts and perhaps the prime
ministership. The council remained vague about exactly what
they would or would not accept as part of power sharing with
the TFG, but they made it clear they expected to become a
major part of the government in return for their military
support. They were distrustful of TFG President Sheikh
Sharif and believed him to be a Wahhabi, although they said
they would support him if the terms were strong enough.
However, they were concerned that in joining the TFG they
would lose their identity as a group, and insisted that
whatever arrangement was agreed upon, they would maintain
some kind of separate identity. The council made a plea for
direct U.S. military assistance, but urged the Ambassador to
pressure the TFG to accept ASWJ's offer of support.


3. (C/NF) The Ambassador informed the council that
Washington supported ASWJ joining the TFG in a manner that
strengthened the TFG as the government of Somalia. PolOffs
stressed that given events on the ground, it would be
advantageous for all concerned that, at a minimum, the two
side's military forces begin to cooperate against al-Shabaab
now, while continuing broader political talks with the TFG on
a formal power-sharing arrangement that would undoubtedly be
long and difficult. PolOffs stressed that the United States
would not support ASWJ as a separate entity.

TFG Wants Alliance, But Wary of ASWJ
--------------


4. (C/NF) On May 21, TFG Deputy Prime Minister Sharif
Hassan believed that some type of agreement with ASWJ was
likely in the next few days. He said the TFG was prepared to
offer a number of deputy minister positions, but not the
senior positions. He said he was committed to sharing the
TFG's resources with ASWJ military forces in the field.
However, he was concerned that the TFG and ASWJ were on
divergent political paths, but he recognized that both sides
needed each other, and therefore, it was in their mutual
interest to come to an agreement now. The Ambassador
restated Washington's position as related to ASWJ the day
before, and emphasized the importance that the sooner an
agreement could be reached, the better for all concerned.

Ethiopian Government Pushing Both Sides to Make a Deal
-------------- --------------


5. (C/NF) Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr.
Tekeda Alemu on May 21 said Ethiopia was pressuring both the
TFG and ASWJ to come to an agreement. He said Ethiopia was
not concerned with the framework of the agreement as long as
it did not upset the current structure of the TFG or result
in yet another shuffling of ministers. He assessed that ASWJ
had military credibility, but that it did not yet have
political credibility. He suggested that ASWJ run for office
in two years when the current term of the TFG ended. He
believed that the TFG probably would not survive if it did
not ally itself with ASWJ now, and he opined that the TFG
would have already fallen if ASWJ had not been diverting

al-Shabaab's military efforts in central Somalia. Ethiopian
Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin in a separate meeting on May
22 echoed Tekeda's comments.

As of May 26 Talks Stalled
--------------


6. (C/NF) Conversations with the parties on May 26 revealed
that the talks have stalled because ASWJ continues to demand
senior government posts to include the prime ministership.
TFG officials remain eager to come to an agreement with ASWJ,
but they will not concede to ASWJ's unrealistic demands.
Sharif Hassan departed Ethiopia on May 23, and TFG Minister
of Security Omar Hashi is now in Ferfer, Ethiopia preparing
to re-enter Somalia and attack al-Shabaab in Hiraan in the
next couple weeks. ASWJ leaders remain in Addis Ababa and
are continuing to meet with Ethiopian officials.

Comment
--------------


7. (C/NF) In our view, ASWJ is overestimating the strength
of their position and making unrealistic demands of the TFG.
The TFG, on the other hand, is wary of ASWJ because they fear
that ASWJ may become too strong, and as a result, Sharif
Hassan wants to incorporate ASWJ now before ASWJ becomes a
political threat to the TFG. To the extent possible, Embassy
Addis Ababa, in close consultation with Embassy Nairobi, will
continue to press the parties to begin military cooperation
while political talks continue. End Comment.
YAMAMOTO