AFRICAN UNION DOWNPLAYS SOMALIA DESPITE IMMINENT

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 001139 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET SUBJECT: AFRICAN UNION DOWNPLAYS SOMALIA DESPITE IMMINENT CRISIS REF: ADDIS ABABA 1063 AU: Nothing to See Here, Move Along, but Keep Up the Support -------------- -------------- ¶1. (SBU) During the May 13 Consultative Meeting of the African Union (AU),Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs),and International Partners, AU Peace and Security Commissioner Ramtane Lamamra, supported by the Ugandan and Burundian Ministers of Defense, asserted that there was no serious crisis in Mogadishu, and that there was no threat to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Lamamra insisted that the TFG was solid, and that this crisis was blown out of proportion by the media. He said AMISOM had no plans to evacuate Mogadishu, rather the third Burundi battalion was preparing to deploy, and he announced that Sierra Leone had pledged to provide a battalion. Both Lamamra and AU Special Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission for Somalia Nicholas Bwakira urged the donor community to "make good" on their promises of additional support at the recent Brussels pledging conference. (Comment: Lamamra's position is irresponsible and stands in opposition to the fact an evacuation of AMISOM may be required within a short period of time. End Comment.) USAU emailed the AU Communique to Washington on May 13. AU-UN Rift Goes Public -------------- ¶2. (SBU) More significantly, the growing dispute between the AU and UN over the UN's support to AMISOM (Reftel) went public during the closed morning session and again during the open afternoon session with the international partners. In the morning session, Lamamra blasted UN Special Envoy for Somalia Amedou Ould-Abdallah for the failure of the UN to consult with the AU in preparing the most recent Secretary General's report on Somalia which Lamamra considered to be critical of the AU and AMISOM while irresponsibly assessing that a UN PKO in Somalia would be counterproductive. In the afternoon session, the Ugandan MinDef proposed expressing the AU's displeasure with the UN in the text of the communique, but Lamamra resisted noting that it was better if the issue was handled "diplomatically" rather than putting it into a formal document. Lamamra went on to comment again that he was dissatisfied with the comments of Ould-Abdallah in "prejudging" that a UN PKO in Somalia now would only make the situation worse. Lamamra reminded the assembly that the African Union was on the ground in Somalia, risking their lives, while the UN was not. He again made it clear that he was displeased that the UN had made these assertions without any consultation with "their partners" the AU. Comment -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Lamamra's motivation for painting an unrealistically rosy picture of the current situation in Somalia is almost certainly to prevent the donors from walking away from AMISOM. He may underestimate the degree to which the international community understands the events now unfolding in Mogadishu. In the past, he has consistently repressed any notion that the AU is engaged in contingency planning lest the donors get the idea that AMSIOM is ending and not worth continued funding. In our view, the failure of the AU to adequately address contingency planning is irresponsible, and puts the lives of the troops on the ground in further risk. ¶4. (SBU) Comment continued. This was the first AU meeting where the AU-UN disagreement over support to AMISOM broke out into the open and became a public feud. The growing discord between the two bodies has serious ramifications for the future of AMISOM as well as for the future AU-UN peacekeeping efforts, and by extension, US conflict resolution efforts in Africa. We encourage Washington to examine this issue closely because the AU is pushing for the United States to take a position, and Washington's response will have a decided impact on its future relationship with the African Union. End Comment. YAMAMOTO