AFRICAN UNION DOWNPLAYS SOMALIA DESPITE IMMINENT

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 001139

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET
SUBJECT: AFRICAN UNION DOWNPLAYS SOMALIA DESPITE IMMINENT
CRISIS

REF: ADDIS ABABA 1063

AU: Nothing to See Here, Move Along, but Keep Up the Support
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1. (SBU) During the May 13 Consultative Meeting of the
African Union (AU),Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs),and
International Partners, AU Peace and Security Commissioner
Ramtane Lamamra, supported by the Ugandan and Burundian
Ministers of Defense, asserted that there was no serious
crisis in Mogadishu, and that there was no threat to the
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Lamamra insisted
that the TFG was solid, and that this crisis was blown out of
proportion by the media. He said AMISOM had no plans to
evacuate Mogadishu, rather the third Burundi battalion was
preparing to deploy, and he announced that Sierra Leone had
pledged to provide a battalion. Both Lamamra and AU Special
Representative of the Chairperson of the Commission for
Somalia Nicholas Bwakira urged the donor community to "make
good" on their promises of additional support at the recent
Brussels pledging conference. (Comment: Lamamra's position
is irresponsible and stands in opposition to the fact an
evacuation of AMISOM may be required within a short period of
time. End Comment.) USAU emailed the AU Communique to
Washington on May 13.

AU-UN Rift Goes Public
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2. (SBU) More significantly, the growing dispute between
the AU and UN over the UN's support to AMISOM (Reftel) went
public during the closed morning session and again during the
open afternoon session with the international partners. In
the morning session, Lamamra blasted UN Special Envoy for
Somalia Amedou Ould-Abdallah for the failure of the UN to
consult with the AU in preparing the most recent Secretary
General's report on Somalia which Lamamra considered to be
critical of the AU and AMISOM while irresponsibly assessing
that a UN PKO in Somalia would be counterproductive. In the
afternoon session, the Ugandan MinDef proposed expressing the
AU's displeasure with the UN in the text of the communique,
but Lamamra resisted noting that it was better if the issue
was handled "diplomatically" rather than putting it into a
formal document. Lamamra went on to comment again that he
was dissatisfied with the comments of Ould-Abdallah in
"prejudging" that a UN PKO in Somalia now would only make the
situation worse. Lamamra reminded the assembly that the
African Union was on the ground in Somalia, risking their
lives, while the UN was not. He again made it clear that he
was displeased that the UN had made these assertions without
any consultation with "their partners" the AU.

Comment
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3. (SBU) Lamamra's motivation for painting an
unrealistically rosy picture of the current situation in
Somalia is almost certainly to prevent the donors from
walking away from AMISOM. He may underestimate the degree to
which the international community understands the events now
unfolding in Mogadishu. In the past, he has consistently
repressed any notion that the AU is engaged in contingency
planning lest the donors get the idea that AMSIOM is ending
and not worth continued funding. In our view, the failure of
the AU to adequately address contingency planning is
irresponsible, and puts the lives of the troops on the ground
in further risk.


4. (SBU) Comment continued. This was the first AU meeting
where the AU-UN disagreement over support to AMISOM broke out
into the open and became a public feud. The growing discord
between the two bodies has serious ramifications for the
future of AMISOM as well as for the future AU-UN peacekeeping
efforts, and by extension, US conflict resolution efforts in
Africa. We encourage Washington to examine this issue
closely because the AU is pushing for the United States to
take a position, and Washington's response will have a
decided impact on its future relationship with the African
Union. End Comment.
YAMAMOTO