TURKEY: ADANA'S MAYORAL RACE - PERSONALITY VS. PARTY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000012 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: ADANA'S MAYORAL RACE - PERSONALITY VS. PARTY ADANA 00000012 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. With five weeks before the voting, three candidates are in the running for Adana's mayoralty, but four-term incumbent Aytac Durak is still the man to beat. Durak is running from MHP (his fourth party affiliation) after being publicly dropped from his former perch in AKP. His most serious rival is AKP candidate Mehmet Ali Bilici, who hopes his (justifiable) criticism of Durak's tenure and AKP's strong organization will prevail. Cranky CHP leftist Umit Ozgumus' only hope is for a close three-way contest in which he gains a large number of protest votes. A Durak win would be bitter medicine for AKP, which could have won easily by keeping the incumbent in its camp. END SUMMARY. Marriage of Convenience Ends in Messy Divorce - and Another Loveless Match -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Adana's four-term, septuagenerian mayor Aytac Durak sent shock waves through the local political scene in early December 2008 with his abrupt resignation from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Durak, sensing that AKP plans to conduct a local caucus to select the most popular candidate was a ploy to push him aside, denounced AKP's "affront to the people of Adana" as he pointed to results from his own polls showing over 70% support for his candidacy. A hostile exchange with the AKP party leadership played out in the papers, with Prime Minister Erdogan's parting shot of "Good Luck to you, Durak" featured in the headlines and the observation that, back in 2004, he and Durak had agreed on one more term, not two. Durak never fit in with the AKP's religious conservatives, nor did he allow any AKP loyalists on to his team. ¶3. (SBU) Shortly after this rift, Durak joined the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP),his fourth party. Even contacts who respect Durak's political acumen believe he may have erred in linking himself with the ultra-nationalist MHP, which is repellent to many Kurds, Arabs and Alevis, who comprise more than half of Adana's population. One local contact expressed surprise Durak chose a "third-tier opposition party," but others have said Durak knows exactly what he's doing. Durak believes personal loyalty, cultivated with all Adana's communities, will trump party labels - his campaign (buttressed by his media holdings) feature billboards of him posing like an esteemed 
uncle at weddings and other ceremonies under clichid slogans such as "We are all family." MHP is never mentioned. While contacts tell us it's "all about the candidate," some Kurds have told us, Durak or no Durak, they will never vote for MHP. AKP Nominates Change Candidate, CHP Opts for Anger -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Durak's main rival is AKP nominee Mehmet Ali Bilici, a 58-year-old businessman and farmer, and three-term parliamentarian under the Motherland Party (ANAP). Bilici lacks the charm of Durak, but his gentle style and eloquence make up for this deficiency; more importantly, he represents the nation's ruling party which has deep pockets and a strong organization. Bilici's campaign has been in full force, with billboards, radio spots, and music-pumping vehicles circulating around the city. What will most damage Durak is Bilici's criticisms of Durak's failings as a city manager, arguments that resonate with many middle-class residents frustrated with Adana's unplanned urban sprawl, traffic congestion, air pollution, and lack-luster services. Many in Adana believe Durak is partly responsible for Adana's loss of prestige and economic clout; though it is Turkey's 5th largest province, Adana now ranks 10th in income levels. Bilici hopes his slogan, "Adana needs change" will convince voters that it's time for the charming Durak to retire. ¶5. (SBU) In a political blunder, the leftist Republican People's Party (CHP) decided to dump its original candidate, 40-year-old Soner Cetin, only a week after introducing him with great fanfare. CHP forced Cetin to withdraw, citing the need for a higher profile candidate, and nominated Umit Ozgumus, president of the Chamber of Industry. Protests erupted in front of CHP party headquarters, and banners accused Ozgumus of buying his candidacy while Cetin supporters told the media they would not vote for Ozgumus. One Consulate contact quipped that Ozgumus "would pick a fight with anyone, including himself." Indeed, Ozgumus regularly publishes diatribes against the EU and the U.S. using worn out nationalist/leftist rhetoric; he and the Chamber of Commerce president don't speak to each other. ADANA 00000012 002.2 OF 002 Despite Ozgumus' negatives, contacts observe that voters fed up with Durak and AKP may give their protest ballot to CHP, making Ozgumus a potential dark horse. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT. We are told the latest polls conducted by AKP show Durak leads by 11 points, though everyone cautions that a lot can change in the remaining five weeks. Although this election is "provincial" (in many respects),a Durak victory would have national significance as it would deal AKP a loss in a region where it has shown steady growth since 2002. Moreover, it would constitute a personal setback for PM Erdogan, who gambled that the AKP brand could defeat the longest-serving mayor in Turkey. GREEN