NIGERIA: KATSINA GOVERNOR TALKS PDP POLITICS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000899 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: KATSINA GOVERNOR TALKS PDP POLITICS AND 2011 ELECTIONS Classified By: Ambassador Robin Renee Sanders for reasons 1.4(b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) On May 15, in a private meeting prior to the Ambassador's Pilot Engagement with States (PES) meeting (Septel) with Katsina Governor Ibrahim Shehu Shema, the Ambassador raised PDP politics and the 2011 Elections with the governor who had up until April, 2009, been considered one of President Yar'Adua's closest confidants. She began the discussion by asking if Governor Shema planned to run for re-election, to which he replied, "I'm not even thinking about it yet." (Comment. We note that Leadership newspaper reported on May 18 that there was already tension within the State PDP party over who would carry the party's flag in the 2011 election. The paper cites that Senator from Katsina South Garba Yakubu Lado, also considered to be close to the President, as a leading rival to Shema. Prior reports about the governor's firing of one of President Yar'Adua's cousins have stirred up rumors that a rift is forming between President Yar'Adua and Governor Shema. The governor told PolOff after the PDP National Convention on March 21 that these reports are being "manufactured" and that the individual sacked was not a close relative of the President's. The President reportedly had even advised against his hiring in the first place, and that Yar'Adua's "totally agreed" with the firing due to poor performance. The President was in Katsina the day before the Ambassador arrived and the Governor made no hint of tension during the visit. End Comment). ¶2. (C) On the national scene, Governor Shema (who previously served as PDP Deputy National Chairman) said he was not happy with the way the PDP National Convention was handled because it created an image of tension and conflict within the party. He referenced specifically a court case raised to stop the convention altogether, and the fact that former President (and PDP Board of Trustees Chairman) Obasanjo failed to attend. While the PDP still controls the vast majority of elected positions in Nigeria, Governor Shema said the fragmentation within the party is "making things very difficult" and interrupting improving the democratic process within PDP which he noted was importing for the future of the party. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador also used the opportunity of Yar'Adua's visit the day before to ask Shema about the President's views on the U.S.-GON bilateral relationship. Governor Shema responded that the President sees the U.S. as a key ally and development partner, and that Nigeria can learn from U.S. economic recovery programs for its own financial woes. He said the President is also very interested in receiving assistance in the areas of electoral reform, anti-corruption, infrastructure, and social development. He added that the President believes he is misunderstood by the USG, but that his objectives have always been clear as he is trying to open up and be more transparent. Although Shema presented the picture of a calm political state, the Ambassador noted that Yar'Adua seemed to be in a shroud of secrecy and that it would be helpful if Yar'Adua would meet with more high-level U.S. officials when they come to Nigeria. Shema promised to take up the issue with the President. ¶4. (C) Comment: While Governor Shema deflected questions about his prospects for re-election as "too early to say," it strikes us as unlikely that Shema is just watching things unfold. We have heard rumors that Minister of Agriculture Abba Aayyadi Ruma, Chief Economic Advisor Tanimu Yakubu, and Senator from Katsina South Garba Yakubu Lado are all interested in the job as Katsina Governor. The potential for infighting within the state PDP is high given what we know as all players seem to be using their personal relationship with Yar'Adua to vie for the 2011 nod. End Comment. SANDERS