NIGERIA: STATE BATTLE LINES DRAWN FOR 2011

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 08 ABUJA 000845 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: STATE BATTLE LINES DRAWN FOR 2011 ELECTIONS REF: A. LAGOS 213 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. ABUJA 679 ¶C. LAGOS 197 ¶D. ABUJA 482 ¶E. ABUJA 248 ¶F. ABUJA 148 Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) INTRODUCTION/SUMMARY. With Nigeria's next national elections still two years away in 2011, it is nonetheless clear that the battle over governorships in particular is already underway in many states. While there are states where the incumbent governor faces little or no opposition to a second term, these tend to be the minority. This cable will examine the current situation and stability in those states Mission Nigeria sees as toss ups, namely those with second term governors on their way out and those in which the first term governor faces strong opposition to re-election either due to rivalries with leading political figures, factions within his own party, or a strong opposition party. As Leo Tolstoy said, "every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." The same is true in Nigeria's states -- each has a unique story behind the conflict that involves to varying degrees personalities, long-term political or religious rivalries, ethnicity, rotational zoning considerations (under which different parts of states or different regions of the country get "turns" to control particular offices),and patronage to an eminent political or economic figure, known as a godfather. The similarities in states with governors up for re-election derive from the strong influence of godfathers (powerful figures who are at the center of the patron-client networks which are the building blocks of Nigerian politics) and the ease with which politicians switch parties to run for office. The main political parties that are at play are: the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP),All Nigerian Peoples' Party (ANPP),Action Congress (AC), Progressive Peoples' Alliance (PPA),All Progressives' Grand Alliance (APGA),and Labour Party. None of this makes us hopeful for a more democratic election in 2011 than we saw in ¶2007. END INTRODUCTION/SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) We are at the half-way mark of most (24 out of 36) of the Nigerian governors' four year terms. The 2011 gubernatorial elections from state-to-state can be characterized one of five ways: (1) VULNERABLE INCUMBENTS: the incumbent first-term governor faces significant godfather or intra-party problems, or a strong opposition party, posing a serious re-election challenge. The states that fall into this category are: in the North-West geo-political zone Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi,and Zamfara; Plateau state in the North-Central zone; Bauchi state in the North-East; Oyo state in the South-West; Rivers state in the South-South; and the South-East states of Abia, Enugu, and Imo; (2) OPEN SEATS UP FOR GRABS: the incumbent governor is finishing his second term (the constitutional limit) and a new governor will have to emerge. These include: Kano state in the North-west zone, Kwara state in the North-Central, Borno and Gombe states in the North-East, and Ogun state in the South-West; (3) SECOND TERM IN THE BAG: the incumbent governor can be expected to win a second term with little real opposition: in the North-West Jigawa state; in the North-Central zone Benue, Nassarawa and Niger states; North-East Taraba and Yobe states; South-West Lagos state; South-South Akwa Ibom state; and South-East Ebonyi state; (4) STATES ON A DIFFERENT ELECTION CALENDAR: no election will be held in 2011 because rerun elections in 2007-2009 delayed the date on which an incumbent governor's current four year term began: Sokoto state in the North-West; Kogi state in the North-Central; Adamawa state in the North-East; Ekiti and Ondo states in the South-West; Bayelsa, Cross River, and Edo states in the South-South; and Anambra state in the South-East; (5) STILL (!) LEGAL QUESTIONS: states where electoral ABUJA 00000845 002 OF 008 tribunal cases are still pending, making it unclear whether the election cycle will be affected include Osun state in the South-West and Delta state in the South-South. VULNERABLE INCUMBENTS - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (S/NF) U.S. Mission Nigeria judges that North-West geo-political zone states Kaduna (PDP),Katsina (PDP),Kebbi (PDP),and Zamfara (PDP); North-Central zone Plateau state (PDP); North-East zone Bauchi state (PDP); South-West zone Oyo state (PDP); South-South zone Rivers state (PDP); and South-East zone Abia (PPA),Enugu (PDP),and Imo (PPA) states will be significant states in the 2011 elections. Although each state within this category has its own peculiarities, there are some trends which are common among them. Governors in Kebbi, Zamfara, Oyo, Rivers, and Enugu states have problems in their relationship with their political godfathers (as defined earlier) which will complicate their bid for a second term. Kebbi also illustrates the problem of a state in which rival factions within the PDP will complicate the Governor's bid for re-election; the same is true in Kaduna, Katsina, and Plateau. Finally, the PDP can be expected to pull out all the stops to assert its authority in the South-East geo-political zone states of Abia and Imo. ¶4. (S/NF) KADUNA: Kaduna is a bellweather for the north and represents a "mini-Nigeria" with a fairly equal Muslim-Christian split. Governor Namada Sambo (PDP) is facing a crisis within the PDP on two fronts. Firstly, he and his political godfather, former Governor and current National Assembly Senator Ahmed Rasheed Markafi, are now leading opposing factions within the PDP. Secondly, the lack of district rotation in the state threatens to lead to ethnic problems if the southern senatorial district, which is primarily Christian and has not been represented by a governor since military rule, continues to feel underrepresented. Makarfi (representing the northern Senatorial district) has broader appeal in the southern area of the state than Sambo (representing central Senatorial district) because under Makarfi's tenure as Governor he elevated the status of the southern (Christian) traditional rulers and included them in the Council of Elders on equal footing with their Muslim counterparts. The state has historically been PDP (since 1999). ¶5. (S/NF) KATSINA: Governor Ibrahim Shema (PDP) has been pushing for a second term. However, several other members of the "Katsina mafia" (the small clique of individuals, including Shema, close to President Yar'Adua and with significant influence on his decisions),such as the Minister of Agriculture Abba Ruma and Presidential Special Advisor for Economic Affairs Tanimu Yakubu, are reportedly also angling for the governorship. At present, Shema appears to enjoy the favor of First Lady Turai Yar'Adua, a clear advantage in his bid to remain in office. However, Ruma and Yakubu are reportedly using Shema's recent firing of the State Secretary to the Government (President Yar'Adua's cousin) to question Shema's loyalty. (Note: Shema was PDP Vice Chairman for the Northwest during the Obasanjo administration and it is believed he was Obasanjo's pick for governor. Although part of the "Katsina clique," Shema is not as close to Yar'Adua as Ruma and Yakubu. The Katsina Governor also served as Yar'Adua's Attorney General when Yar'Adua was governor and usually is invited to travel with Yar'Adua on his limited trips either in or outside of the country.) ¶6. (S/NF) KEBBI: Ref D outlined the troubles facing Kebbi Governor Saidu Usman Nasamu Dakingari (PDP). Dakingari has fallen out with his godfather, former Governor and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Adamu Aliero. The factionalization of the PDP caused by the Dakingari-Aliero disagreement has led Dakingari to form his own campaign machinery to push his 2011 re-election agenda. Although the PDP firmly controls this small, agrarian state which relies wholly on federal allocations from oil revenues, the battle between Dakingari and Aliero may lead one or the ABUJA 00000845 003 OF 008 other to an opposition party. With Dakingari married to Yar'Adua's daughter and Aliero in the FCT Cabinet position, it will be a tough battle between the two for control of the PDP in the state. ¶7. (S/NF) ZAMFARA: Governor Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi (PDP) and all 14 of the Local Government Chairmen in the state defected to the PDP in December 2008 from the ANPP (Ref D). Shinkafi's defection was an attempt to distance and protect himself from his former ANPP godfather, former Governor (1999-2007) and current National Assembly Senator Sani Ahmed Yerima. Yerima is reportedly still trying to control affairs in the state from his Senate office in Abuja, although Shinkafi enjoys considerable popular support, as well as the support of the Zamfara local governments and the State Assembly, stemming from his open, accessible management of the state. Yerima will certainly try to regain control of the state, both for himself and the ANPP. Shinkafi's defection to the PDP will buy him the cover and resources of the ruling party, but he will need to keep up his efforts to show results for his administration to maintain popular support in this traditionally ANPP state. ¶8. (S/NF) PLATEAU: Governor Jonah Jang's (PDP) mishandling of the November 2008 sectarian violence in Jos, particularly in the eyes of the PDP's national leadership, will certainly hurt his chances for re-election, as will his subsequent falling out with the Yar'Adua family and with his Deputy Governor, Pauline Kedem Tallen. Despite recent reports that the PDP has endorsed Jang for re-election in 2011, there are rumors that the PDP is seeking another less-polarizing candidate for the position. Jang is likely to try to silence opponents within the PDP (either through force or "buying" their silence with appointments and contracts). He may be pushed out of the PDP if the opposition to his candidacy is strong enough and, if so, we can expect he will move to another party to run for re-election. The religious tensions and indigene/settler tensions in Plateau state, and in Jos in particular, remain high and could re-ignite if PDP and ANPP candidates seem to split along Christian-Berom and Muslim-Hausa and Fulani lines. (Note: Consitutional requirements for "federal character" mean the designation of "indigeneship" by the local government chairman carries with it access to political power, jobs and resources. "Settlers" on the other hand, many of whom may have been resident in the area for generations, are excluded from access to jobs and resources under the federal character provisions.) The state shows a significant potential for political violence (similar or worse than the sectarian violence of Nobember 2008) along sectarian fault lines as the 2011 elections approach. (Ref. F) ¶9. (S/NF) BAUCHI: Ref B outlined the troubles facing Governor Isa Yuguda, who defected from the All Nigerian Peoples' Party (ANPP) to the PDP on April 14, 2009. Yuguda, who married President Yar'Adua's daughter earlier this year, is rumored to be an aspirant for Central Bank Governor (CBN) and is considered close to First Lady Turai Yar'Adua (see septel on Ambassador conversation on other possible CBN candidates besides Yuguda). If he does take a federal job, Deputy Governor Garba Mohammed Gadi, who remains a member of the ANPP, will take over as Governor. It is not clear whether Gadi will enjoy enough support within the ANPP to garner the 2011 ticket easily. Despite the ANPP's strong influence in the state, the PDP will not want to give up this key north eastern state. If Yuguda does not take a federal position, he may face stiff competition as the PDP candidate from his former ANPP party, as most of the state ANPP leaders have not followed his defection. ¶10. (S/NF) OYO: Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala's (PDP) aspirations for a second term will depend largely on who emerges as the new godfather of the state, following the death in June 2008 of Lamidi Adedibu. Should Governor Alao-Akala emerge as the new leading political godfather, his re-election will be fairly certain; however, it remains unclear whether he will manage to take Adedibu's place as the ABUJA 00000845 004 OF 008 state godfather. National Assembly Senate Majority Leader Teslim Folarin reportedly has his eyes on the governorship as well. ¶11. (S/NF) RIVERS: Ref C outlined Governor Rotimi Amaechi's (PDP) problems with his political godfather, former Governor and presidential aspirant Peter Odili. Odili replaced Amaechi on the 2007 PDP party ticket with his cousin, Celestine Omehia, just before the 2007 elections. Amaechi won his appeal of Omehia's election in October 2007, so the next election will likely be held in the Fall of 2011 rather than April. That being said, the rivalry between Odili and Amaechi will continue to play out in the 2011 elections, with Odili using his considerable resources to oust Amaechi and support his own candidate. This will take place before the backdrop of the existing violence in Rivers state -- with Amaechi using the Joint Task Force and Odili maintaining influence with the "militant" groups he funded and controlled during his term as governor. As in other states, internal PDP battles may result in one of the aspirants leaving the party to run under another party ticket. ¶12. (S/NF) ABIA: Governor Theodore Orji (Progressive Peoples' Alliance, PPA) remains in good standing with his political godfather, former Governor Orji Uzo Kalu. (Note: Prior to Theodore Orji's election as governor, he served as Chief of Staff to Governor Uzo Kalu.) Former Governor Uzo Kalu continues to have trememdous influence and controls the political happenings in the state. The threat to Governor Orji's position will come from the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP),which will want to reassert its dominance in the southeast following losses in the 2007 elections and subsequent tribunals. Minister of Foreign Affairs Ojo Maduekwe and PDP National Chairman Prince Vincent Ogbulafor are both from Abia state and will likely campaign aggressively for a PDP candidate, seeking to challenge the twelve year reign of PPA's Uzo Kalu and Theodore Orji. It is important to note that Foreign Minister Ojo Maduekwe and PDP Chairman Prince Ogbulafor are arch enemies. ¶13. (S/NF) ENUGU: Governor Sullivan Chime (PDP) fell out with his political godfather, former Governor Chimaroke Nnamani, soon after the 2007 elections -- although Chime seems to have won favor with many Enugu elites. He will likely face an uphill battle winning the PDP renomination as Nnamani, who controls the party in the state, will not likely support him. (Note: Nnamani has been indicted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission on charges of fraud, conspiracy, concealment and money laundering.) Another possible PDP candidate is Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu. Interestingly, Chime and Ekweremadu are reportedly close friends, and it is not clear how this relationship will play out in the race for the PDP ticket, or whether Nnamani will support Ekweremadu. As in several other states, whomever does not receive the PDP nomination may switch to another party in order to compete for the election. Despite any internal conflicts, the PDP (and Nnamani) appear in firm control of the state, with the question being which PDP politician will end up with the nomination. ¶14. (S/NF) IMO: Governor Ikedi Ohakim (Progressive Peoples' Alliance, PPA) is rumored to be considering defecting to the PDP. Although this has not been confirmed, it is clear that the PDP wants to regain the control of the state (which it lost in 2007). Additionally, online news site Sahara Reporters maintains that Imo native Maurice Iwu, Chairman of the controversial Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the official blamed most by the Nigerian public and international observers for the poor organization of the 2007 elections, has his eye on the Imo governor's house. Many PDP governors and local government chairmen gained their positions because of the fraud and vote rigging that INEC allowed in the 2007 elections. Hence, Iwu is owed a lot of political debts within the PDP which he could call in, should he choose to run. OPEN SEATS UP FOR GRABS ABUJA 00000845 005 OF 008 - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶15. (S/NF) Incumbent governors in North-West geo-political zone Kano state (ANPP),North-Central Kwara state (PDP), North-East Borno (ANPP) and Gombe (PDP) states, and South-West Ogun state (PDP) are completing their second term and are constitutionally ineligible to run again. Each state poses its own unique set of circumstances. In Kano state, the PDP may present a strong challenge to ANPP Governor Shekarau's attempt to support the election of a successor from his own ANPP party. The incumbent governors in Kwara, Borno, and Gombe states will likely be able to name their successors. In Ogun, issues of ethnic representation may seriously restrict or block PDP Governor Daniel's choice of successor. ¶16. (S/NF) KANO: As in the past and inspite of the very conservative nature of the state, Kano politics offer a unique opportunity for opposition voices to be heard. The state voted PDP in 1999 and ANPP in 2003 and 2007 and voters in the state have a tendency to demand forcefully that their votes be counted. As a strategic state containing the most densely populated city in the north, Kano is a state the PDP badly wants to control. Governor Ibrahim Shekarau (ANPP), however, will want to name his successor. Like in other states, ANPP aspirants not receiving Skekarau's endorsement are likely to seek the nomination of other parties. However, the state PDP is factionalized, with PDP founding member and former Executive Governor Abubakar Rimi (1979-1983) leading one faction and former PDP Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (1999-2003) leading the other. If Rimi's faction can bring a strong candidate (some are throwing around the name of prominent National Assembly member Farouk Lawan) who represents the "new breed" of PDP, the party stands a real chance of challenging the ANPP for control of the state. On the other hand, if Kwankwaso gets his way and emerges as the PDP candidate, the party will face an uphill battle as he is widely viewed in the state as part of the old PDP establishment. The wildcard in Kano state politics is General (rtd) Mohammadu Buhari, a former military Head of State, who is widely popular there. If he again chooses to run for President in 2011, whichever party ticket he runs on will control a significant number of votes in the governorship polls as well. If, however, Buhari remains wiht the ANPP, the state could thus continue to be in ANPP hands. ¶17. (S/NF) KWARA: Governor Bukola Saraki and his family, particularly his father Olusola Saraki (the godfather of Kwara State),have firm control over the state. The family's influence within the state means Olusola Saraki should be able to hand-pick his son's successor (Ref E). There are two possible conflicts: various PDP aspirants compete for Olusola's endorsement; and a intra-Saraki family issue between the Governor and his sister Gbemisola Saraki, who is a national Senator, are the issues to watch. We expect that these issues would be generally low-key and behind the scenes rather than played out publicly. As for the rumored governorship aspirations of Senator Gbemisola Saraki (Olusola's daughter),many believe her nomination would create a district problem because she and her brother Bukola are both clearly from the same Senatorial district, Kwara Central. Kwara Central has produced the governor for the last three terms and the other two districts will expect the job to be identified now for one of them. Also rumored to be in the race are federal Minister of Transport Ibrahim Bio and Abdulfatai Ahmed, the Kwara state Commissioner for Finance and Economic Development since 2003. Ahmed is from Kwara South senatorial district and is the only Commissioner who has remained in his same position since Bukola became Governor in 2003. ¶18. (S/NF) BORNO: If the situation in Borno remains as it is now, Governor Ali Modu Sheriff (ANPP) will face little to no opposition within the ANPP to his choice of a successor. Although Sheriff is ANPP, it is reported that he is close to the PDP national leadership (including President Yar'Adua) and may be considering a switch to PDP. This, despite his regular battles with state level PDP leadership. If he does ABUJA 00000845 006 OF 008 switch to PDP, his strong control of the local "area boys" (political thugs hired to cause trouble who would remain faithful to Sheriff rather than any particular party) may create problems for the ANPP, despite what has been strong ANPP control of the state since 1999. ¶19. (S/NF) GOMBE: Governor Mohammed Dajuma Goje (PDP) has successfully wooed virtually all of the state's influential ANPP members (including former ANPP candidates for state and local government elections) to the PDP. Goje is in a good position to pick his PDP successor. The conflict in Gombe will likely be internal to the PDP, as gubernatorial aspirants fight over Goje's endorsement. PDP aspirants not chosen by Goje as the PDP candidate can, however, be expected to re-defect to the ANPP or other smaller parties in order to run for governor. ¶20. (S/NF) OGUN: Governor Gbenga Daniel (PDP) is enmeshed in political disputes arising from ethnic rivalries in the state. Ogun state is made up of three ethnic subgroups of the Yoruba ethnic group -- the Yewa/Awori, Egba and Ijebu. Daniel has openly supported the Yewa/Awori peoples' call for the next governor to be picked from their subgroup, as the other two predominant subgroups (the Egba and Daniel's own Ijebu) have both previously produced governors. Egba politicians accuse Daniel of favoring the Yewa/Awori because of an age-long political rivalry between his Ijebu subgroup and the Egba. Speaker of the Nigerian House of Representatives Dimeji Bankole (Egba),speaker of the Ogun House of Assembly (also Egba) and other prominent Egba PDP politicians are leading the opposition to Daniel within the state PDP leadership. As well, there is a continuing conflict between Daniel and former President Olusegun Obasanjo (Egba),with rumors circulating that Obasanjo is putting his daughter, Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello, forward as a possible replacement for the governor. All of which, some believe, may lead Daniel to support a non-PDP candidate (presumably Action Congress, AC) as his replacement. SECOND TERM IN THE BAG - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶21. (S/NF) In nine states, the incumbent governors face little or no opposition and can be expected (barring substantial unforeseen changes to the situation) to win a second term easily. These states are Jigawa state (PDP) in the North-West geo-political zone; Benue (PDP),Nassarawa (PDP) and Niger (PDP) states in North-Central; Taraba (PDP) and Yobe (ANPP) states in North-West; Lagos state (AC) in South-West; Akwa Ibom state (PDP) in South-South; and Ebonyi state (PDP) in South-East. In Jigawa, Taraba, Lagos, Akwa Ibom, and Ebonyi states, the incumbent governor remains in good stead with his original political godfather. In Nassarawa state, former ANPP gubernatorial candidate Suleiman Ewuga poses the only real opposition to Governor Sule Lamido (PDP); however, it is rumored Ewuga will defect to PDP. In Benue, despite ethnic rivalries between the Tiv (ruling the states since 1976) and the Idoma (National Assembly Senate President David Mark's ethnicity),Governor Gabriel Suswam (PDP, Tiv ethnicity) appears adept at playing the ethnic groups against each other and will likely face no strong opposition from an Idoma candidate. ¶22. (S/NF) Among this group of states, however, Niger and Yobe states stand at least an outside chance of shifting from this category into that of "vulnerable incumbents." Niger Governor Babangida Aliyu (PDP) must tread carefully as his state is home to former presidents Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) and Abdulsalami Abubakar, both of whom retain considerable influence. IBB in particular continues to lead a network with national reach. At present, Aliyu has the support of both former presidents; however, should he misstep, either could significantly impede his hopes for re-election. Right now, however, he seems on the road to re-election. In Yobe, Governor Mamman Ali (ANPP) died on January 28, 2009 and his Deputy, Ibrahim Geidam, took over. Geidam quickly appointed Abubakar Ali, the late governor's brother, as Deputy Governor. Yobe state has been a stronghold of the ANPP party ABUJA 00000845 007 OF 008 since 1999 and the party will likely remain in ANPP control. It is too early to tell, however, whether others within the ANPP party will challenge Geidam for the governorship. STATES ON A DIFFERENT ELECTION CALENDAR - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶23. (S/NF) Tribunal results which overturned elections or called for new elections have shifted the four-year term cycle in Sokoto state of the North-West geo-political zone; the same is true of Kogi state in North-Central; Adamawa state (PDP) in North-East; Ekiti (PDP) and Ondo (Labour Party) states in South-West; Bayelsa (PDP),Cross River (PDP),and Edo (AC) states in South-South; and Anambra state (All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA) in South-East. Ekiti state elections were held on April 25 and May 5, 2009 (Ref. A). Anambra gubernatorial elections will be held in 2010. Sokoto, Kogi, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Adamawa state gubernatorial elections will be held in 2012 and Ondo state elections in 2013. Contested winners of the 2007 elections won re-run elections in Sokoto, Kogi, Ekiti, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Adamawa states. The courts have not yet ruled definitively on whether the four-year clock resets for re-elected governors or whether previous time in office counts as part of the four-year term. Election results for 2007 were overturned by the tribunals and won by a new candidate, resulting in the inauguration of a new governor, in Ekiti, Ondo, and Edo states. Kogi state Governor Ibrahim Idris (PDP) is the only governor with elections occuring off the 2011 cycle currently serving in his second term. ¶24. (S/NF) ANAMBRA: The Anambra state election will be held in 2010 rather than 2011. In 2007, the former Special Advisor to President Obasanjo, Andy Uba (Peoples' Democratic Party, PDP),challenged Governor Peter Obi (All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA) and was initially declared the winner. However, the courts annulled the election, deciding that Obi, who had only been sworn in to office in 2006 following a prolonged appeal of the 2003 elections, should serve his full four years in office (2006-2010). Andy Uba and his brother Chris Uba, an Anambra godfather who was responsible for the kidnapping and forced resignation of then sitting governor Chris Ngige in 2004, will be ready for a fight in 2010. Given the heavy handed tactics of the Uba brothers in the past, we can expect the 2010 elections to be a "do or die" affair. STILL (!) LEGAL QUESTIONS - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶25. (S/NF) Tribunals continue to hear appeals against the outcome of the 2007 elections in the South-South geo-political zone states of Delta (PDP) and Osun (AC). In Osun, a federal appeals court dismissed the previous judgment of an election tribunal which upheld the election, accusing the tribunal members of bias and ordering a reconstituted tribunal to retry the petition. If the tribunal in either or both states upholds the elections, the incumbents (Emmanuel Uduaghan, PDP, in Delta and Rauf Aregbesola, AC, in Osun) will remain until 2011. A decision to hold re-run elections or to declare the petitioner the valid winner of the 2007 elections would presumably result in a new four-year term and shift the elections. Osun Governor Aregbesola is currently serving his second term and will be ineligible to run again upon completion of his second term in 2011. Comment - - - - ¶26. (S/NF) While much about the gubernatorial maneuvering remains unclear in many states, some things are at least highly likely. First, the PDP will probably continue to hold onto a majority of the Governorships. The party is fairly secure in over a dozen states, and is at least leading in quite a few more. That said, whether the total will be a bare majority or even more than the 24 of the 36 states the PDP now has, is anyone,s guess. Even in states where the party is clearly the dominant political force, it remains a collection of godfather networks, rather than either a coalition of broad interest groups similar to the American ABUJA 00000845 008 OF 008 model, or ideologically based groupings like most European parties. As a result, there is a good chance that "big men" in a particular state who find themselves outmaneuvered for the PDP nomination will simply switch to another party. Several politicians did this in 2007. In Bauchi, for example, Isa Yuguda failed to get the PDP nomination, then switched to the ANPP and won the Governorship. However, 18 months later, he switched back to the PDP, and will probably be the party,s candidate in 2011. ¶27. (S/NF) Second, there is nothing about the trends described above that suggests that the next round of gubernatorial elections in 2011 will be more democratic than the last one, which was no better in most places than the Presidential elections a week later, which we judged to be "massively fraudulent." In a few states (Kano, Lagos and most of the Southwest, for example),something like real politics occasionally happens, but in many places there is not even the pretence. Even in states where there is something approaching real multi-party competition, as was recently the case in Ekiti, the PDP, with INEC,s connivance, has been shamelessly willing to rig the results. In those states controlled by opposition parties, they have shown themselves just as willing to attempt organized rigging, albeit on a smaller scale than the PDP. ¶28. (S/NF) What is not clear is whether or not the voters will again tolerate such an "election-like event" rather than a real election. Immediately after the elections in 2007, there was evidence that the PDP was considering rigging in its candidates as Governors in Lagos and Kano, but was dissuaded from doing so by the prospect of major unrest in both opposition strongholds. On the other hand, the obviously rigged result just seen in Ekiti generated only a couple days of protests, which appear already to have quieted down. In Nigeria, unlike in some African countries, there is as yet not much of a culture of electoral politics. Indeed, some have argued that Nigeria,s current political system, with its heavy reliance on the "zonal" rotation of offices and the sharing of resources, the emphasis is on regional, religious and ethnic "fairness," rather than on what the rest of the world regards as democracy. End comment. ¶29. (U) This cable was co-authored by Embassy Abuja and Consulate Lagos. SANDERS