Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ABUJA816
2009-05-08 06:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
NIGERIA: STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN OF EKITI ELECTIONS
how-toVZCZCXRO0750 PP RUEHPA DE RUEHUJA #0816 1280645 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 080645Z MAY 09 ZDK FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5969 INFO RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS PRIORITY 1281 RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0271 RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 1877 RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0826 RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/DIA WASHINGTON DC RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000816
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA
BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN OF EKITI ELECTIONS
REF: A. ABUJA 792
B. LAGOS 213 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000816
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA
BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN OF EKITI ELECTIONS
REF: A. ABUJA 792
B. LAGOS 213 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)
1. (C) Moshuud Erubami (strictly protect),Chairman of the
Transition Monitoring Group (TMG),provided Lagos POLOFF with
numbers of registered voters for each of the LGAs in Ekiti
state where the April 25 and May 5 rerun elections occurred.
TMG is part of a consortium of local non-governmental
organizations which monitored the May 5 rerun of the Ekiti
gubernatorial polls in 63 wards of 10 local government areas
(LGAs). Erubami told POLOFF he received the numbers directly
from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on
April 24, 2009. With these numbers, post was able to look at
voter turnout in each of the LGAs. The results are as
follows:
LGA PDP AC Total # Registered % turnout
Gbonyin 1,925 2,871 4,796 38,535 12%
Ekiti S/W 423 351 774 36,450 2%
Ise Orun 3,864 4,221 8,085 30,822 26%
Ijero 5,121 1,881 7,002 41,150 17%
Irepodun/I. 4,087 5,702 9,789 57,877 17%
Ekiti West 2,497 1,149 3,646 27,267 13%
Ekiti East 4,711 3,829 8,540 51,690 17%
Ikole 4,471 3,639 8,110 43,037 19%
Ido Osi 15,939 3,793 19,732 47,587 41%
*Oye 1,268 802 2,070 18,000 12%
Totals 44,306 28,238 72,544 392,415 18%
* Rerun elections for two wards in Oye LGA were held May 5
(due to violence on April 25). All other reruns were held
April 25.
2. (C) COMMENT: As was the case in 2007, the voter turnout
percentages tell the story -- and clearly. Given that
Nigerian elections are usually rigged at collation centers
and not by actual ballot box stuffing, we note with interest
the 41% voter turnout in Ido Osi LGA (when average turnout
was only 18% and no other LGA showed more than 26% turnout).
Observers of the April 25 and May 5 reruns have told us that
turnout was considerably lower than in 2007 (Ref. A),when
official statistics show 29% turnout and our Mission
observers felt 20% was a generous number. We note Ref. B
allegations that count sheets in Ido Osi were not signed by
Presiding Officers, nor by AC Party Representatives. It
seems hard to believe that more than 4,000-5,000 of the votes
cast for PDP in Ido Osi were actual ballots, meaning that
10,000-11,000 of those counted were likely simply additions
made to the collation sheets. Given that the PDP candidate
came into the April 25 reruns approximately 11,500 votes
behind the AC candidate, the numbers for Ido Osi become even
more clearly suspect.
3. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
SANDERS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA
BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN OF EKITI ELECTIONS
REF: A. ABUJA 792
B. LAGOS 213 AND PREVIOUS
Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)
1. (C) Moshuud Erubami (strictly protect),Chairman of the
Transition Monitoring Group (TMG),provided Lagos POLOFF with
numbers of registered voters for each of the LGAs in Ekiti
state where the April 25 and May 5 rerun elections occurred.
TMG is part of a consortium of local non-governmental
organizations which monitored the May 5 rerun of the Ekiti
gubernatorial polls in 63 wards of 10 local government areas
(LGAs). Erubami told POLOFF he received the numbers directly
from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on
April 24, 2009. With these numbers, post was able to look at
voter turnout in each of the LGAs. The results are as
follows:
LGA PDP AC Total # Registered % turnout
Gbonyin 1,925 2,871 4,796 38,535 12%
Ekiti S/W 423 351 774 36,450 2%
Ise Orun 3,864 4,221 8,085 30,822 26%
Ijero 5,121 1,881 7,002 41,150 17%
Irepodun/I. 4,087 5,702 9,789 57,877 17%
Ekiti West 2,497 1,149 3,646 27,267 13%
Ekiti East 4,711 3,829 8,540 51,690 17%
Ikole 4,471 3,639 8,110 43,037 19%
Ido Osi 15,939 3,793 19,732 47,587 41%
*Oye 1,268 802 2,070 18,000 12%
Totals 44,306 28,238 72,544 392,415 18%
* Rerun elections for two wards in Oye LGA were held May 5
(due to violence on April 25). All other reruns were held
April 25.
2. (C) COMMENT: As was the case in 2007, the voter turnout
percentages tell the story -- and clearly. Given that
Nigerian elections are usually rigged at collation centers
and not by actual ballot box stuffing, we note with interest
the 41% voter turnout in Ido Osi LGA (when average turnout
was only 18% and no other LGA showed more than 26% turnout).
Observers of the April 25 and May 5 reruns have told us that
turnout was considerably lower than in 2007 (Ref. A),when
official statistics show 29% turnout and our Mission
observers felt 20% was a generous number. We note Ref. B
allegations that count sheets in Ido Osi were not signed by
Presiding Officers, nor by AC Party Representatives. It
seems hard to believe that more than 4,000-5,000 of the votes
cast for PDP in Ido Osi were actual ballots, meaning that
10,000-11,000 of those counted were likely simply additions
made to the collation sheets. Given that the PDP candidate
came into the April 25 reruns approximately 11,500 votes
behind the AC candidate, the numbers for Ido Osi become even
more clearly suspect.
3. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
SANDERS