NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES BUILDING BRIDGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000609 SIPDIS DEPT FOR DRL, AF/W PLEASE PASS USTR FOR AGAMA DOL FOR SUDHA HALEY DOC FOR 3317/ITA/OA/KBURRESS TREASURY FOR DAN PETERS BAGHDAD FOR DUNDAS MCCULLOUGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV ELAB PREL PHUM ENRG ASEC NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES BUILDING BRIDGES WITH LABOR UNIONS, OPTIMISM ON ELECTION REFORM WITH NEW LABOR MINISTER Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On April 6, the Ambassador (with LabOff, notetaker) met with the new Minister of Labor and Productivity, Prince Adetokunbo Kayode, to identify his ministry's priorities as well as acquire an understanding of his strategy for working with organized labor. Kayode is from Ondo State and a ruling PDP stalwart. The meeting comes amid growing dissatisfaction and threat of strikes in the aviation, civil and public service, teaching, university, and petroleum sector unions, among others. The Minister downplayed current tensions between the unions and GON, even citing four major labor bills as examples of consensus-building between the GON and the National Labor Congress (NLC). He also touted "major efforts underway" to revive tripartite dialogue among government, employers, and organized labor. Kayode's optimistic prognosis ignored what we believe are rising tensions between unions and the GON, which are symptomatic of broader dissatisfaction over increasing poverty, unemployment, and government corruption, as well as shrinking budgetary resources as a result of the global economic downturn. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In his first meeting with the Ambassador as Labor Minister, Prince Adetokunbo Kayode (who was Minister of Culture before taking over this new portfolio in the cabinet reshuffle in November 2008) enumerated his priorities for the ministry: job creation, the reduction of job losses, and relationship-building among labor stakeholders. Kayode asserted that Nigeria's unemployment rate was "very serious, as is the inability to acquire statistics to measure it," but hailed efforts underway to revitalize the National Employment Policy, which he said had been dormant and wasting away on a shelf since its drafting in 2002. In addition, Kayode touted a "National Labor Summit" planned for later this month, which he described as a "significant first step in designing a work plan between government, the private sector, and organized labor to address unemployment. When the Ambassador asked about the potential effectiveness of newly inaugurated "Standing Committee on Government-Labor Relations" (which includes representatives of these three groups),Kayode responded that he believes the Committee will further enhance cooperation and help prevent labor disputes. When asked about how he plans to allocate resources, the new minister informed the Ambassador that he expects to conduct a major labor budget review to change the way funding is requested and allocated, replacing the old practice of approving broad allocations without specific requests, with a much more defined and detailed budget request process, particularly in the areas of job creation and growth. ¶3. (C) Kayode assured the Ambassador of his ministry's commitment to consensus building with all labor stakeholders, although he made clear that his priorities were distinct from those of organized labor. Despite the fact that Nigeria's public service unions are said to be mobilizing nationally to protest wage disparities and low wages, Kayode described the unions' demand for higher wages as "unrealistic," explaining that it is "the wrong time to talk about wage increases" given declining public sector budgets and the global financial crisis. When asked about his current relationship with the unions, Kayode downplayed the ideological and technical difference of opinions between him and the NLC as evidenced by the consensus introduction of four new labor bills, which he claimed reflect tripartite consensus on labor issues. (Note: Contrary to the Labor Minister's statement, LabOff was present at the House public hearing on April 2, where the NLC submitted a highly critical 16-page intervention on the four labor bills to the House Labor ABUJA 00000609 002 OF 002 Committee. End Note.) Kayode also argued that the creation of the Standing Committee will for the first time ensure that labor union leaders have a voice at the table to express their concerns and share ideas with the government. ¶4. (C) Meanwhile the Ambassador had a side-bar meeting with Kayode (also a Nigerian constitutional law expert) on national politics as he his close to President Yar'Adua, is a PDP stalwart, and served as one of the advisers on Yar'Adua's legal team for his Supreme Court case on the elections. Kayode said for certain that Yar'Adua would be running, dismissed the criticism of the GON White Paper on the Electoral Reform Committee (ERC),which retains presidential authority on appointing the Chair of the Independent National Electorate Commission (INEC),and was confident that the necessary constitutional amendments and administrative changes that the National Assembly must execute on electoral reform will be completed before the 2011 election season. ¶5. (C) Comment: Prince Kayode faces great challenges in his new role as Labor Minister. Principal among them is reducing the growing labor discontent strongly correlated to budgetary and revenue constraints which are directly connected to declining oil revenues. However, quelling labor unrest was Kayode's least addressed issue as he outlined his priorities to the Ambassador. Kayode appeared confident (perhaps overly so) in his ability to create new opportunities for job growth, despite the economic downturn, to defuse labor union unrest. From separate LabOff conversations with unions, the union leaders appear willing to give the new minister a chance to prove himself, and may be amenable to negotiation in the first months of his tenure. However, the honeymoon is likely to be short-lived as Nigeria's unions will soon look for something more tangible than Kayode's committees, summits, and national plans. The Minister's comments on the election reform actions by the National Assembly before the 2011 elections seem unrealistic and politically self-serving. End Comment. ¶6. (U) This cable coordinated with Consulate Lagos. SANDERS