NIGERIA: BUHARI DISCUSSES LACK OF GON SINCERITY ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000598

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA
BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI DISCUSSES LACK OF GON SINCERITY ON
ELECTORAL REFORMS

REF: ABUJA 529

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: On April 1, Political Counselor (accompanied
by Poloff notetaker and Political Specialist) met with
General Muhammadu Buhari and his associate, Abubakar Buba
Galadima. Buhari expressed dismay regarding the state of
electoral reform in Nigeria and pointed out that he has said
all along that the government is not sincere in its reform
efforts. Buhari said that the watered down version of
electoral reform recommendations which evolved from the GON's
white paper report of the Electoral Reform Committee's (ERC)
recommendations further demonstrates that the process "has
been rigged". Still, although he was initially completely
dismissive of the ERC, he said that he was impressed with the
quality of submissions which were received during public
hearings held around the country, which he believed had
greatly strengthened the ERC's report (Note: The USG funded
many of these stakeholder discussions on electoral reform
through USAID. End Note.). Buhari and Galadima both said
that, as stakeholders in the success of Nigeria, the
international community must respond to the electoral reform
crisis, but Buhari noted that the bottom line is that the
lack of democracy in Nigeria is the Nigerians' problem. He
added that there is still capacity for the Nigerian elite to
ensure free and fair elections. Buhari also substantiated
his participation in the creation of a "mega-party" (see
reftel),which confirms his break from the All Nigeria
Peoples Party (ANPP). End Summary.


2. (C) On April 1, Political Counselor met with General
Muhammadu Buhari and his associate, Abubakar Buba Galadima in
Abuja. Although in previous conversations with PolCouns
Buhari was dismissive of the ERC (largely due to his lack of
trust in Chairman Uwais, who had been Chief Justice at the
time of the rejection of Buhari's appeal against the 2003
elections),following the release of the final report he now
felt the need to correct his previous view; but he tried to
do so by claiming that the submissions the ERC received all
over the country were so good that the committee had no
choice but to produce a good report. PolCouns pushed back,
noting that the ERC members themselves had obviously done a
lot of work on their own which was reflected in the ERC's
final report.


3. (C) Buhari reminded PolCouns that he has maintained that
the GON is not genuine in its efforts for electoral reform.
He reasoned that the ineffectual list of electoral reform
recommendations that was ultimately accepted by the GON
following the revision of the ERC's report by the Federal
Executive Council and Minister of Justice Aondoakaa (whom
Buhari disdainfully referred to as "this famous Minister of
Justice we have") demonstrates that the entire process "has
been rigged". In fact, Buhari said he believes that the
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will go as far as to declare
Yar'Adua as a second term president without even holding 2011
elections. But, Buhari said that he does not think Nigerians
will accept disregard for democracy anymore. He said that
while following the 2007 elections Nigerians brought their
disputes to court believing that they had a fool-proof case,
in 2011 he is of the opinion that Nigerians will no longer
tolerate less than credible elections and implied that the
reactions may be violent. Galadima added that if it were not
for Buhari's calls for peaceful political processes in 2007
that there would have already been violence. (FYI: Buhari
also made similar calls for peace in 2003. End FYI.)


4. (C) Buhari and Galadima said that as stakeholders in the
success of Nigeria, the international community must act,
otherwise, they warned, "people of conscience" will
potentially have to deal with problems such as "thousands" of
refugees as a result of violent outbreaks which they said may
occur if there is continued lack of reform. Galadima said
that Nigerian "crooks fear the strong American word" but the
lack of a "hard hammer" coming down on them has only

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encouraged their corruption. Galadima also claimed that a
mere 100 people steal Nigeria's national wealth. Still,
Buhari acknowledged that in the end electoral reform is
Nigeria's problem and it is up to Nigerians to solve it. He
believed there is still capacity for the elite to get
together to ensure free and fair elections, provided they
have the will to do so. He also cited reports of grassroots
discontent recently highlighted in a series on the BBC's
Hausa Radio Service.


5. (C) PolCouns asked Buhari if the current effort to form a
"mega-party" out of smaller opposition parties is feasible,
and if the new grouping has a chance to remain united, given
Nigeria's history of such efforts being brought down by the
conflicting ambitions of their leaders. Buhari acknowledged
that attempts by the opposition parties to form such an
alliance before the 2007 elections failed because the members
could not agree on a candidate, but he believes this time the
discussions are serious and an alliance is likely to take
place.


6. (C) Comment: We agree that the PDP is looking to ensure
that the 2011 polls are another "election like event" rather
than a credible election, and that, if his health permits,
Yar'Adua will almost certainly be the PDP candidate, and
presumptive "winner" of such polls, regardless of the actual
vote count. As for the attempt to create an opposition
"mega-party" we remain unconvinced that it will be able to
agree on a single presidential candidate or remain united
over the next two years. End Comment.


7. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
SANDERS