NIGERIA: PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA SIGNS 2009 BUDGET

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000474 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PASS TO USTR AGAMA AND USAID/AFR FOR ATWOOD BAGHDAD FOR DUNDAS MCCULLOUGH TREASURY FOR PETERS, IERONIMO AND HALL DOC FOR 3317/ITA/OA/KBURRESS AND 3130/USFC/OIO/ANESA/CREED E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV ENRG ETRD EAID PGOV NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA SIGNS 2009 BUDGET REF: A. 08 ABUJA 2365 ¶B. 08 ABUJA 2225 ¶C. 08 ABUJA 882 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - NOT FOR DISTRO OUTSIDE USG ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Nigeria's President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua signed into law the 3.087 trillion naira ($21.29 billion) 2009 budget appropriation bill on March 10, 2009. The final 2009 budget represents a 17% increase (217 billion naira, $1.5 billion) by the National Assembly above the 2.87 trillion naira ($19.79 billion) budget presented by President Yar'Adua on December 2, 2008. The President raised several public reservations about higher revenue projections and financing for the projected lower budget deficit in light of the current global economic and financial crisis, but signed the bill. Passage of the 2009 budget in March was a month earlier than the 2008 budget, which was not approved until April 14, 2008 (reftel C). In addition to quicker budget passage and signing, the Executive Branch took several steps to improve implementation by increasing threshold limits for administrators to approve expenditures. The 2009 budget's assumptions of a $45 budget benchmark price per barrel of oil and daily oil production of 2.209 million barrels are overly optimistic considering daily oil production is currently 1.6 million barrels and global oil prices are hovering in the mid to low $40 range. Regarding other increased revenue in the budget, the Budget Office of the Ministry of Finance told us they received no explanation from the National Assembly on how the deficit will be lower and revenues higher. The National Assembly has not publicly revealed their calculations. We expect that there will be insufficient revenue to support expenditures in 2009 leading to decreased spending. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On March 10 President Umaru Musa Yar'adua signed into law the 2009 budget. The 2009 budget was passed by the National Assembly on February 18 with major capital expenditure items increased by 217 billion naira ($1.5 billion) from the budget the President submitted in late 2008 (reftel A). The 2009 budget consists of statutory transfers - 165.72 billion naira ($1.14 billion); debt service - 283.65 billion naira (1.956 billion); recurrent expenditure - 1.62 trillion ($11.158 billion); and capital expenditure - 1.0197 trillion ($7.032 billion). . Major Changes -------------- . ¶3. (U) The assumptions espoused in the budget submitted by the President remain unchanged for oil production, joint venture cash calls, crude oil benchmark price ($45),and GDP growth; however, the signed budget projects a lower deficit of 836.6 billion naira ($5.77 billion) or 3.02% of GDP as opposed to the President's earlier deficit projection of 1.09 trillion naira ($7.52 billion) or 3.95 percent of GDP. The Budget Office of the Ministry of Finance told us they received no explanation from the National Assembly on how the deficit will be lower and revenues higher. The National Assembly has not publicly revealed their calculations on revenue. The following breakdown highlights the major increases to the 2009 budget by the National Assembly compared to the budget the President submitted in late 2008: -- National Assembly appropriation increased to 114.77 billion naira ($791.51 million) from 64.517 billion naira ($444.94 million). -- Presidency appropriation increased to 27.63 billion naira ($190.57 million) from 22.41 billion naira ($154.56 million). -- Police formations and commands appropriation increased to 199.19 billion naira ($1.37 billion) from 195.36 billion naira ($1.35 billion). -- Ministry of Youth Development appropriation increased to 48.27 billion naira ($332.90 million) from 43.409 billion naira ($299.37 million). -- Ministry of Womens' Affairs and Social Development appropriation increased to 3.66 billion naira ($25.25 million) from 1.75 billion naira ($12.06 million). -- Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources appropriation increased to 164.949 billion naira ($1.14 billion) from 119.763 billion naira ($825.95 million). -- Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces appropriation increased ABUJA 00000474 002 OF 003 to 215.02 billion naira ($1.48 billion) from 201.41 billion naira ($1.39 billion). -- Ministry of Health appropriation increased to 154.29 billion naira ($1.064 billion) from 143.11 billion naira ($986.94 million). -- Ministry of Commerce and Industry appropriation increased to 10.996 billion naira ($75.84 million) from 8.996 billion naira ($62.04 million). -- Ministry of Power appropriation increased to 101.86 billion naira ($702.49 million) from 93.44 billion naira ($644.39 million). -- Ministry of Works (public works for roads and highway construction) appropriation increased to 242.46 billion naira ($1.672 billion) from 173.33 billion naira ($1.195 billion). -- Ministry of Aviation appropriation increased to 33.55 billion naira ($231.35 million) from 20.485 billion naira ($141.27 million). . Better Budget Execution -------------- . ¶4. (U) On March 5, in a bid to ensure better budget implementation, the President approved an upward review of contract approval limits for chief executives and accounting officers of ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs). The policy change should increase MDAs' responsiveness. Under the new guidelines the expenditure thresholds that may be ratified by the ministerial tenders' boards was increased from 50 million naira ($344,827) to nearly 100 million naira ($689,655) for goods and nearly one billion naira ($6.9 million) for works. Also, the threshold for tenders' boards of parastatals has been raised from 20 million naira ($137,931) to approximately 50 million naira ($344,827) for goods and approximately 250 million naira ($1.72 million) for works. ¶5. (U) Expenditure approval limits for Permanent Secretaries have also been raised from one million naira ($6,896) to five million naira ($34,483) for goods, and just under ten million naira ($68,965) for works. Moreover, under the new guidelines, Director Generals and Chief Executive Officers of parastatals whose earlier financial limit was 700,000 naira ($4,827) can now give expenditure approvals for 2.5 million naira ($17,241) for goods, and five million naira ($34,483) for works. ¶6. (U) Approval limits for the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) were also increased. Under the new guidelines, the NNPC parastatals tenders' boards can approve expenditures ranging from $2 million to $4 million, while the NNPC Group Headquarters Tenders' Board can approve expenditures from $4 million to $10 million. The NNPC Tenders' Board can approve expenditures from $10 million to $20 million, while the Federal Executive Council (Cabinet) may approve petroleum industry expenditures of $20 million and above. . Comment -------------- . ¶7. (SBU) Though the President had hoped that the 2009 budget would have been signed into law by the end of December 2008, the completion during the first quarter of 2009 is a one month improvement from 2008. This additional month leaves more time for overcoming implementation and execution issues. If the increases in capital expenditure are implemented successfully there could be progress on several infrastructure challenges - new roads, improved electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure, in addition to other infrastructure projects. ¶8. (SBU) The projected daily oil production of 2.209 million barrels per day is very optimistic considering GON officials confirm that daily production has fallen to 1.6 million barrels per day since the beginning of 2009. Concomitantly, the situation is worse due to the global economic and financial crisis which has brought the international price of crude oil to the $40 per barrel range, less than the $45 budget benchmark price. ¶9. (SBU) The projected deficit is also unrealistic and may increase as a result of possibly dwindling revenue. Strategies for financing the budget deficit are unclear. A recently planned $500 million GON bond issue in the international capital markets was suspended. The most likely outcome will be insufficient revenue in 2009 for planned ABUJA 00000474 003 OF 003 expenditures, which will cause the GON to focus on priorities. ¶10. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. SANDERS