NIGERIA: DELAY NAMING NEW SHEHU MAY SIGNAL TROUBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000345

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA
BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019
TAGS: KISL PREL PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: DELAY NAMING NEW SHEHU MAY SIGNAL TROUBLE
IN BORNO STATE

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: On February 21 the Shehu of Borno (a
traditional ruler and religious figure who is ranked second
after the Sultan of Sokoto among Northern Nigeria's royals),
Alhaji Mustapha bin Umar Kyari Amin El-Kanemi, died of cancer
at the age of 85. Traditionally a new Shehu is named within
three days; however at this time, five days later, a new
Shehu has not yet been announced. Local press speculates
that the delay is due to pressure from highly placed
individuals trying to influence the choice of the successor.
The kingmakers (a group of select religious clerics and
traditional office holders) nominated three members of the
Borno royal family in ranked order from whom the state
Governor is to make the final selection. The three
candidates are a son and brother of the late Shehu, both of
whom are considered widely popular, as well as Abba Kyari
Shehu Garbai, who is reportedly Borno State Governor Modu
Sheriff's favored contender. Garbai supported Sheriff during
his 2003 gubernatorial campaign, and Sheriff recently made
Garbai a district head - an appointment which was apparently
intended to strengthen Garbai's candidacy (the fact of the
Shehu's terminal illness was well known). If Governor
Sheriff attempts to impose Garbai as the new Shehu, the
Governor's unpopularity with the public could spark violence
in yet another northern state. End Summary.


2. (U) On February 21 the Shehu of Borno, Alhaji Mustapha bin
Umar Kyari Amin El-Kanemi, died of cancer at the age of 85.
The Shehu, who was also Vice President on the Supreme Council
for Islamic Affairs, had ruled as a traditional and spiritual
leader since 1974. The funeral was attended by President
Yar'Adua, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF)
Alhaji Yayle Ahmed, the Sultan of Sokoto Alhaji Saad Abubakar
III, and the Emir of Kano Alhaji Ado Bayero. The Shehu was
well known for his humility and support for ethno-religious
tolerance.

Succession Issues
- - - - - - - - -

3. (U) Traditionally a new Shehu is named within three days
of his death; however at this time, five days later, a new
Shehu has not yet been announced. According to press
reports, pressure from highly placed individuals trying to
influence the choice of the successor are causing the delay.
'Leadership' newspaper reported on February 26 that Borno
State Governor Modu Sheriff intends to announce the new Shehu
after consultations with President Yar'Adua and the Sultan of
Sokoto. It quoted a "palace source" as saying that a new
Shehu will emerge before Friday prayers on February 27.


4. (U) It is customary for the kingmakers (a group of senior
clerics and members of the traditional ruler's entourage) to
nominate 2-3 individuals in ranked order from which the state
Governor makes the final selection. According to Pol
Specialist, there have been only a few rare occasions since
colonial times when the governing authorities have not
approved the kingmakers' first choice as successor for
traditional leader positions.


5. (C) This time, the three contenders nominated for the new
Shehu are: Baba Shehu Mustapha, District Head of Nganzai and
the eldest son of the late Shehu; Abba Rufai Umar, of the
Nigerian Ports Authority and the younger brother of the late
Shehu; and Abba Kyari Shehu Garbai, District head of Magumeri
and Permanent Secretary in the Ministry for Local Governments
and Chieftaincy Affairs, and son of the 17th Shehu Umar ibn
Garbai. Local press suggests that Garbai is Governor
Sheriff's favored contender. Pol Specialist noted that when
Sheriff campaigned for Governor in 2003, Garbai was the only
member of the royal family who supported him. The Governor
named Garbai the District head of Magumeri just two months
ago. (Comment: In Borno, contenders to be Shehu, in addition
to coming from the royal family, customarily have also served
as district heads. End comment.) Many observers believe
Sheriff made this appointment because he was aware the Shehu

ABUJA 00000345 002 OF 002


was in poor health, and wanted to strengthen Garbai's chance
to succeed him. According to Pol Specialist's contacts, the
late Shehu's son and brother are both widely respected, while
Garbai is considered a stooge of the increasingly unpopular
Governor Sheriff.

Comment
- - - -

6. (C) Mission contacts within the security services have
warned that a move by Sheriff to impose Garbai as Shehu could
spark violence in the area. President Yar'Adua, while he was
Governor of Katsina State, scrupulously stayed out of a
similar succession contest for Katsina Emir despite pressure
from, inter alia, his wife Turai. We would be surprised if
he is not urging a similar course on Sheriff. Given that
something as innocuous as a dispute over parking ignited
violence in Bauchi over the past weekend, and the significant
death toll caused by violence in Jos in November 2008,
Yar'Adua would be right to be concerned about what Governor
Sheriff decides to do. End comment.


7. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos.
SANDERS