(S/NF) NIGERIA: VILLA ANALYST DISHES DIRT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000261 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA BAGHDAD FOR DUNDAS MCCULLOUGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2034 TAGS: PGOV NI SUBJECT: (S/NF) NIGERIA: VILLA ANALYST DISHES DIRT REF: A. ABUJA 196 ¶B. 08 ABUJA 2525 ¶C. 08 ABUJA 2249 Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: In a wide-ranging January 29 conversation, Presidential Villa economist and policy analyst Sani Musa (strictly protect throughout) told PolCouns that President Yar'Adua's health appeared to have stabilized in the past couple of months. He added, however, that the Villa remains dysfunctional -- with a lack of coordination of public messages and an internal squabble between Secretary to the Government of the Federation Ahmed and National Security Advisor Mukhtar. He also commented on the political ambitions of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman Iwu, and the continuing troubles of former Economic and Financial Crimes Commision (EFCC) Chairman Ribadu (Musa's comments on the removal of NFIU Director Okauru are reported in Ref. A). End Summary. ¶2. (S/NF) Musa said the President's health appeared to have stabilized for the past month or so. Asked if this meant Yar'Adua was now able to work more than the few hours a day about which he recently told us (Ref. B),Musa said "no, he still gets tired after a few hours." He noted that one of the things which is contributing to public disquiet about the President's health is disorganization in terms of Villa public relations. He noted that Spokesman Segun Adeniyi sometimes says one thing, then Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Yahyale Ahmed says something different, leading to confusion and pointless arguments, such as over whether or not Vice President Jonathan would be acting President in Yar'Adua's absence. ¶3. (S/NF) Musa added that the bad relations between SGF Ahmed and National Security Advisor Abdullahi Sarki Mukhtar also contribute to Villa dysfunctionality. He accused Mukhtar (Musa's own boss) of having taken a $2 million bribe from previous Navy Chief of Staff G.T. Adekeye (a notorious major oil bunkerer) to secure the latter's selection as Chief of Defense Staff (CDS). Unbeknownst to Mukhtar (a former General himself),then-Defense Minister Ahmed had already obtained the President's agreement to the selection of General Paul Dike as CDS, and the new list of service chiefs (including Gen. Dambazzau as Chief of Army Staff). Mukhtar was furious, and, according to Musa, is now busy trying to dig up anything negative he can use against SGF Ahmed. INSIGHTS ON INEC'S IWU, EFCC'S RIBADU - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (S/NF) Musa noted an article in the January 29 "Leadership" newspaper describing Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman Maurice Iwu's role in the 2007 gubernatorial election in Imo state. Musa recalled that former President Obasanjo used his power as Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the ruling Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) to block a PDP politician he disliked from running in the state, declaring that the party would instead have no candidate in Imo state. Musa said Iwu then used his position as INEC chair to block the election of a popular candidate from the APGA party, assuring the election of a weak candidate from the small PPA party. According to Musa, Obasanjo is working to elect Iwu himself as Imo State Governor in 2011. ¶5. (S/NF) Musa noted recent press reports of former EFCC Chair Ribadu "going into hiding," and basically accused Ribadu of being something of a self-promoter, trying to get people to forget how he spent four years selectively prosecuting Obasanjo's political enemies before Yar'Adua's election. That said, he added, at least Ribadu did arrest some corrupt politicians, and (once Obasanjo left office) was starting to move the EFCC in a good direction before his removal. Musa added that it was clear Farida Waziri was completely a tool of Attorney General Aondoakaa (whom he described as the most brazen crook of all),and that she was ABUJA 00000261 002 OF 002 not seriously pursuing any of the big fish. (NOTE: Nigerian press reported January 29 that Ribadu failed to show for a hearing at the Code of Conduct Tribunal. Ribadu's lawyer told press that Ribadu was in hiding out of fear of assassination, citing an incident in which Ribadu's car was shot at while traveling from Abuja to Katsina in October ¶2008. See Ref. C). ¶6. (S/NF) Comment: Musa is clearly speaking out of school here, and much of this reflects only his personal opinions. Nonetheless, he has regular opportunity to view the President at close quarters, and much of what he has told us has been corroborated elsewhere. Regarding INEC Chairman Iwu, we have heard from other contacts that Obasanjo is supporting him for the Imo Governorship. We also note the recent full-page ad in several national newspapers in which the Speaker and PDP-dominated Imo State House of Assembly "rejoice" at a Thanksgiving service in Iwu's honor and express their "fervent prayer that Almighty God will continue to guide and give you wisdom and courage to steer the ship of the country's electoral body as we continue to identify with your noble cause." As one diplomatic colleague remarked: "Gag me with a spoon!" End comment. ¶7. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. SANDERS