DEMOCRACY ACTIVIST AND NOBEL LAUREATE WOLE SOYINKA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002341

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV NI
SUBJECT: DEMOCRACY ACTIVIST AND NOBEL LAUREATE WOLE SOYINKA
ON NIGERIA TROUBLES


1. (S) Summary: Leading democracy activist, Nobel
Laureate and Niger Delta mediator Wole Soyinka met with
Ambassador December 23 at his home in Ogun State to discuss
the state of affairs in Nigeria ranging from President Yar'
Adua's health and his fears on election reform to his role
as a negotiator with the fractional umbrella militant group
MEND. Soyinka said he respected Yar'Adua, thought he tried
to do the right things, but was hampered by his inability
to control the politics around him. He added that he was
not hopeful that the Niger Delta Amnesty, planned
rehabilitation programs for the militants or election
reform would succeed without Yar'Adua's presence. He too
had heard that the President was totally incapacitated.
Soyinka said he was working with civil society
organizations (CSOs) to find a way for peaceful
disobedience and for the moment CSOs have decided on May
29, 2009 (annual celebration of Nigeria's Democracy Day) as
a day time for a peaceful march on the National Assembly to
force action on election reform. Soyinka also believed the
election time table would be moved up at least to February

2011. However he saw no trends or had no indications from
his sources that worried about a coup, as the "military has
been burned by its past." On the removal of the chairman of
INEC Soyinka said the President told him that he could not
yet find a way around Senate President Mark on this issue.
End Summary.

2.(C) Famed democracy activist, Nobel Laureate and
Niger Delta negotiator Wole Soyinka agreed to meet with
Ambassador on December 23 at his country residence in Ogun
State just prior to his departure to California. Ambassador
had known and worked with him nine years ago. Soyinka
provided his honest assessment on the current democracy
issues in Nigeria, and provided a debrief of his last
meeting with President Yar'Adua prior to the latter's
departure to SAUDI ARABIA for failing health which included
discussions on Niger Delta and election reform. He began
by saying that he had informed Yar'Adua that the country
really needed a constitutional assembly to address key
constitutional issues for Nigeria once and for all.

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Meeting with Yar'Adua: Niger Delta
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3. C) Soyinka said he first had a group meeting with
Yar'Adua and the Niger Delta militants at the Villa in
early November, followed by a one-on-one meeting. In the
group meeting with the militants he said the Nigerian
President was very forthcoming and responded to the
concerns of the militants. Many of them felt that they were
being used by the local politicians in the regions and that
their stipends were being stolen and or inflated to cover
corruption. They stressed to the President that they were
committed to rehabilitation/reintegration, wanted to ensure
proper distribution of oil derivations, but they did not
see any movement on the GON side. Soyinka stated that Yar'
Adua was disturbed by these reports and stated he was
committed to getting the rehab and reintegrating programs
up and running. The President had promised to chair a
townhall meeting with stakeholders on these issues, but
unfortunately fell ill prior to the follow-up session.


4. (S) On the militants, the democracy activist said
Q4. (S) On the militants, the democracy activist said
that they were a "mixed bag, with some of them being
intelligent, highly motivated and wanting dialogue, while
others were uneducated." He added that the GON was making
a mistake if it assumed that they were all "extortionists
and killers." Soyinka added that Yar'Adua's proposal for a
stakeholders town hall meeting was to put more transparency
in the process and encourage improved dialogue among the
international oil companies (IOC),the militants, and other
community stake holders, particularly on how the IOC's can
contribute to the rehabilitation and reintegration
programs. Overall, Soyinka believed that the Niger Delta
process will be stalled without the President and he was
not hopeful that the Yar'Adua would return to Nigeria after
this latest health crisis. He said that the President's
wife Turai had returned to Nigeria to give "appearances"
that Yar'Adua's health was improving. The government is in
disarray with each minister doing his own thing," he
concluded.



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The VP and Election Reform Issues
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5. (S) On Vice President Jonathan, Soyinka said that
the VP was "afraid of the military and to exercise power
even in areas where he has expertise." The Nobel Laureate
added that now could be a time for Jonathan to call for
national unity and use his knowledge of the Niger Delta
region to make rehabilitation and reintegration a reality
for the area. He said he had not spoken to the VP and there
was no reason to do so. In response to Ambassador's
question on election reform, Soyinka said that he was not
hopeful that the GON would push for changes in the absence
of the President. He added that Yar'Adua was the only real
driver on election reform. Others in the government do not
want election reform and will "deliberately" stall until
the very end. The democracy activist said he asked the
President in his one-on-one meeting which followed the
larger Niger Delta session what "hold INEC Chairman Iwu had
on him that he could not find a way to fire him." Soyinka
claimed that Yar'Adua said he had tried to work with Senate
President Mark to call for a two third National Assembly
vote on Iwu, but Mark refused. Mark likes things just they
way they are and is supporting Iwu, Soyinka said. He noted
that he had been engaged with civil society and helping
them with their frustrations on the election reform issue.
He noted that there is discussion regarding a peaceful
march on the National Assembly on the anniversary of
Nigeria's democracy day, May 29, 2009, to call for election
reform.


6. (S) On whether or not he thought the country was
ripe for a military coup; Soyinka said no. He added that
the military is a aware of its bad history in this country,
and their negative past leadership, therefore he doubts
that they would step in to mount a coup, noting that his
sources are telling him there is thus far no tendency in
that direction. Soyinka stated, however, that he thought
the military would actually support the CSOs peaceful march
on the National Assembly to try to push election reform,
and could likely join in the march. The other thing the
CSOs are considering is starting a petition to remove Iwu
from office.

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Who are the Northerners?
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7. (S) Ambassador asked Soyinka about who he saw as
potential northern leaders to step into the VP slot if
Jonathan moved into the Presidency. The democracy leader
said he thought there were three northern cliques which
were: the old guard comprised and led by General Aliyu
Mohammed, which resents Yar'Adua, includes the Emirs,
former President's Abdulsalami and IBB, and Abdu Yusuf,
former head of service under OBJ; the Yar'Adua Katsina
clique, which has now split in two, with a group led by
Katsina Governor Shema, and the other by Agricultural
Minister Ruma, which includes the two governor son-in-laws
from Bauchi (Yugudan) and Kebbi (Dankagari); and, the third
group comprised of younger governors and businessmen which
includes Kwara Governor Saraki, businessmen Dangote and
Mongul, and the Attorney General, with ex-Delta governor
Ibori, ex-River Governor Odili footing the bill. On the
Katsina group split, Soyinka said the two groups get played
QKatsina group split, Soyinka said the two groups get played
off against each other by Yar'Adua's wife Turai, depending
on what she wants at any given time. On the Sarakis, both
Kwara Governor Bukola, and his father Olusola, although
Muslim, are not respected by the old northern guard, and
not considered part of their clique. Others he considers
with strong followings are Kano Governor Sheraku, former
President Buhari, and former PDP Chairman Ogben during
Obasanjo's second term.

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Comment
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8. (S) Soyinka is considered a respected interlocutor by
many CSO groups and now by the Niger Delta militants. He
paints a pessimistic future with no progress on election
reform or the Niger Delta with Yar'Adua out of the picture.

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What was surprising given his public and vocal criticism of
the current government was his respect for President
Yar'Adua. He described him as a man who really wanted to
do the right thing, smart, but had two Achilles heels: his
health; and, not enough political clout with Nigeria's
complex environment to get things done. Even when
Ambassador asked about the money trail Yar'Adua has with
ex-Delta Governor Ibori, he said it was unfortunate that
this was the only way he could survive. We know that CSOs
are prepared to fight for election reform, and we are
working with them on a number of fronts as well as to build
their capacity to monitor the election reform progress.
The news that the CSOs may be planning a more collective
action with the National Assembly is new information, and
we will monitor this as well through our civil society
contacts.

SANDERS