NIGER DELTA EX-MILITANTS GROW IMPATIENT, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002334 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA; E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EPET NI SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA EX-MILITANTS GROW IMPATIENT, BUT REFRAIN FROM RESUMING ATTACKS Classified By: Acting DCM James P. McAnulty for reasons in sections 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Ex-militants reportedly have grown increasingly impatient over perceived Nigerian Government (GON) inaction on post-amnesty rehabilitation and reintegration, but have refrained thus far from engaging in renewed attacks. A Movement for the Emancipation of the Delta (MEND) spokesperson attempted to exploit such frustration by claiming December 19 that militants had attacked a major pipeline in the Niger Delta. Not surprisingly, the MEND claim turned out to be false. Vice President Goodluck Jonathan met with Defense Minister retired General Godwin Abbe to discuss implementation of Niger Delta post-amnesty process, including continued payment of stipends to ex-militants. Separately, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) representative prepared a letter on behalf of international partners offering to engage the GON further on the Niger Delta. END SUMMARY. -------------- --- EX-MILITANTS GROWING IMPATIENT OVER GON INACTION -------------- --- ¶2. (C) Niger Delta stakeholders told PolMilOff December 10 that progress in the post-amnesty rehabilitation process remained "completely stalled" and would move forward only if international partners placed "significant external pressure" on the GON to act on promises of development and ex-militant training. Niger Delta Technical Committee (NDTC) Chairperson and Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) President Ledum Mitee, University of Nigeria Professor and Institute for Sustainable Development Head Okey Ibeanu, and Stakeholder Democracy Network (SDN) Country Director Inemo Samiama told PolMilOff that ex-militants had quickly grown impatient in camps in Rivers, Bayelsa, and Delta States, which they recently visited. They asked for a strong USG statement that not only expressed support for the peace process, but called for "a clear timetable, measurable indicators, transparency, and independent monitoring" of the process. ¶3. (C) Similarly, UNDP consultants remarked that, during their visits to rehabilitation camps in Bayelsa and Rivers States, they noted that ex-militants had become impatient over alleged GON inaction on the post-amnesty process. Mulade also emphasized during a December 19 telephone conversation with Lagos PolOff that discontent among ex-militants was mounting and becoming increasingly difficult to control. -------------- MEND SPOKESPERSON MAKES FALSE CLAIM -- AGAIN -------------- ¶4. (U) MEND spokesperson Jomo Gbomo announced December 19 that 35 armed militants had breached a major Shell or Chevron crude oil delivery pipeline in the creeks near Abonnema, Rivers State. Gbomo reportedly justified this "warning strike" by claiming that the GON had used President Yar'Adua's illness "to stall" the peace process. (N.B.: The Associated Press carried the story, under the heading "Nigerian militants attack oil pipeline," which the Department Operations Center passed along to Embassy early December 19 to confirm.) Ultimately, various Nigerian and oil sector contacts informed Ambassador, Acting DCM, Economic Qoil sector contacts informed Ambassador, Acting DCM, Economic Counselor, ConGen Lagos Officers, and PolMilOff that no attack had actually occurred. Rivers Governor told Ambassador December 19, for example, that the Joint Task Force Commander had informed him that no attack had occurred, but a pipeline had suffered a break at Soko. Similarly, Presidential Advisor Sani Musa told Acting DCM December 19 that no attack had occurred but that a pipeline had experienced a leak earlier in the week. Gbaramatu Youth Council President Sheriff Mulade, who maintains close contact with former militants, told Lagos PolOff December 19 that no attack had occurred. Dutch diplomat Ronald Sonneman confirmed to PolMilOff December 23 that Shell had performed a fly-over of all facilities and performed pressure checks of all pipelines, determining no evidence of any attack or ABUJA 00002334 002 OF 002 spill. A U.S. business executive at Chevron told Lagos EconOff that all its facilities remained secure and that a spill had occurred earlier in the week. -------------- VICE PRESIDENT MEETS WITH DEFENSE MINISTER -------------- ¶5. (C) Several newspapers reported December 22 that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan had met with Minister of Defense retired General Abbe to discuss the alleged threats of attack by MEND on oil facilities. Deputy Principal Advisor to the Vice President Mike Arokoyo, however, informed PolMilOff December 23 that Vice President Jonathan had met with General Abbe December 21 to discuss the post-amnesty process, specifically continued payments to ex-militants -- and not the alleged MEND attack. Arokoyo opined that MEND had attempted to take credit falsely for the pipeline spill to apply pressure to the GON. -------------- -------------- UNDP PARTNERS OFFER TO ENGAGE GON FURTHER ON NIGER DELTA -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) UK High Commissioner Bob Dewar, Ambassadors Per Lindgarde of Sweden (as representative of the current European Union Presidency) and Angel Losada of Spain (as representative of the incoming European Union Presidency), European Union Charge d'Affairs Pierre Philippe, World Bank Country Director Onno Ruhl, and U.S. Agency for International Development Director signed a letter in Abuja December 18 offering to engage the GON further on the Niger Delta. The letter included a working paper on "Support for Stabilization, Recovery, and Development in the Niger Delta," that expressed support for continued peace-building and conflict prevention efforts, without committing donor nations to future contributions of funding and technical assistance. The working paper provided short, mid, and long-term priorities from a UN-drafted Operations Plan provided to General Abbe at his request. UNDP has not publicly released the Operations Plan, at the request of the GON Amnesty committee, which has used the plan in "checklist format," according to Turhan. Turhan stated that UNDP remained "extremely concerned" about GON failure to launch the DRR process and reluctance by the Amnesty Committee to leverage international expertise. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite growing impatience, ex-militants have refrained from engaging in renewed attacks on Niger Delta oil facilities. Some concerns exist, however, that the GON may not start serious rehabilitation efforts before ex-militants become more impatient for such help. While the GON appears more interested in receiving funding, without conditions attached, than technical assistance, Defense Minister Abbe has reached out to UNDP recently to refine the GON post-amnesty plan of action. President Yar'Adua's prolonged absence from the country, in-fighting among Amnesty Committee members, and lack of federal-state coordination have hampered implementation of Niger Delta post-amnesty efforts. MEND, or at least a person claiming to be a spokesperson for this fractured militant group, attempted to exploit frustrations by claiming falsely to the media to have launched a major attack against an oil pipeline. This claim continues a trend Qattack against an oil pipeline. This claim continues a trend of false statements by MEND. SANDERS