GON MUDDLING THROUGH--BUT FOR HOW MUCH LONGER?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002294 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: GON MUDDLING THROUGH--BUT FOR HOW MUCH LONGER? Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission D.C. McCullough, reason para 1.4 b. ¶1. (C) Summary. As President Yar'Adua's hospitalization in Jeddah nears the one month mark, Vice President Jonathan is assuming a modestly higher public profile as an unofficial acting chief executive. There are few signs that GON decision-making and activities have significantly slowed down from their traditionally leisurely, opaque pace, and key bottlenecks, like the stalled launch of downstream deregulation and pending legislation in the National Assembly, predate Yar'Adua's medical emergency. Ironically, the one presidential initiative considered to have been most at risk by Yar'Adua's disengagement -- the Niger Delta reconciliation process -- may have benefited from Jonathan's presence when he launched a new committee to replace a mechanism that Niger militants claimed was bogged down in corruption. Given the need for a budget and, inter alia, the swearing in of a new Chief Justice, Yar'Adua will have to return or Jonathan will have to receive true presidential powers, either in an acting or permanent capacity. Yar'Adua's situation is slipping off the front pages, in part because of little new information, but many Nigerians, especially in the south, seem much more focused on gas lines and food prices than the Abuja leadership sweepstakes. The lack of urgency expressed by many Nigerians is fueled by the perception that Jonathan has the dispensation and the constitutional imprimatur to move up to the presidency if necessary. Also, the prospects and political space for a military intervention continue to remain low. End Summary. -------------- What Else is New? -------------- ¶2. (C) One of the principal criticisms of the Yar'Adua administration has been its disappointingly lethargic pace and failure to meet the ambitious targets on performance and transparency that Yar'Adua laid out in his own inaugural address. In 2008, the National Assembly passed just four bills, and the output in 2009 is not much higher. On December 16, the Senate unanimously ratified the appointment of Aloysius Katsina-Alu to be the new chief justice of the Supreme Court, but he cannot take office until he is sworn in by the President or a duly constituted acting President. Intense pressure to avoid a vacancy at the top of the court when the incumbent retires December 31 could be the decisive factor in pushing the Presidency to send the required letter to the National Assembly conferring presidential powers on Jonathan. ¶3. (C) In October, long gas lines returned to Abuja, Lagos, and many other parts of Nigeria. The factors ranged from hoarding in anticipation of the end of price subsidies on fuel to union disputes, but it would not be accurate to suggest that the gas lines or the continued delay in announcing deregulation, a political hot potato in Nigeria for the last nine years, stemmed from Yar'Adua's absence. ¶4. (C) The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) remains on the cusp of final passage in the National Assembly, with some observers predicting the breakthrough will come by the end of the year; others, who view delay as positive, hope it will slip to next year. The budget bill and the Local Content Bill (which is linked indirectly to the PIB) are not expected to be passed until early next year, again for reasons unrelated to Yar'Adua's situation. Finance Minister Mukhtar told the Ambassador on December 14 that the budget still needed of lot of work, and that he didn't expect passage until sometime in the first quarter. Quntil sometime in the first quarter. -------------- Impact of Yar'Adua's Absence -------------- ¶5. (C) Ironically, the one presidential initiative considered to have been most at risk by Yar'Adua's disengagement -- the Niger Delta reconciliation process -- may have benefited from his absence, at least in one case. On December 16, VP Jonathan inaugurated a committee and four sub-committees to fast track GON efforts to advance development projects and the reconciliation process in the Niger Delta. This action followed a "disastrous" November 3 meeting in Abuja of the (old) presidential committee on amnesty and Tompolo and other militant leaders. According to a CG Lagos contact who was at the meeting, there was fierce debate over post-amnesty progress and the way contracts were being awarded. The militants subsequently decided to demand the formation of a new committee with more "competence." CG Lagos notes that Delta State Governor Uduaghan has a close relationship with Tompolo and VP Jonathan, and speculates that this connection may have produced the new committee. ABUJA 00002294 002 OF 003 ¶6. (C) Yar'Adua's absence has not led to gridlock in routine GON operations. In the Mission's contacts with a wide array of officials, none has cited the lack of guidance or approval from the President Villa as grounds for postponing a meeting or critical decision. Although the Council of State, an expanded cabinet that includes former heads of state, has not met because only the president may constitutionally convene it, the Federal Executive Council continues to meet weekly, under Jonathan's chairmanship, and ministers continue to travel and attend high-profile events. The Foreign Minister and the VP both affirmed to Ambassador their personal support for launching the Binational Commission, though we have little faith in this affirmation. (Note: The window for getting the BNC up and running productively is closing, due to the GON's looming electoral priorities and the prospect, perhaps imminently, of new leadership in Abuja.) ¶7. (C) Nevertheless, the potential anomaly of the Niger Delta committee aside, Yar'Adua's absence cannot continue much longer without real cost to his administration's agenda, especially in the National Assembly. The Finance Minister has submitted the Asset Management Company (AMC) Bill to the Assembly in recognition that prompt action is needed to remove toxic debt from the commercial banks to get bank lending started again. The Speaker of the House told a public gathering recently that there are 46 bills in the Assembly that are ready to be gazetted. However, the Assembly agreed to treat the AMC bill on a "fast track" basis because of its urgency. If the bill passes, it will be because circumstances do not allow for delay. However, the legislation could not be signed into law by Jonathan unless the Assembly receives a letter from the Presidency conferring full acting presidential powers on the VP. The Niger Delta bill, the 2010 budget, and perhaps the Electoral Reform Bill also require prompt attention. -------------- Lack of Urgency -------------- ¶8. (C) Nigerian media continue to front-page the latest rumors on Yar'Adua's health, but no longer on a daily basis, a reflection of the dearth of new information. There is still little discernible concern about potential transition issues outside the political elites. CG Lagos reports that their regional contacts, from business to political, continue to ignore the topic unless specifically asked. Ordinary Nigerians, it appears, feel they have little at stake in the Abuja leadership sweepstakes, and are more concerned about rising food prices, stubbornly long gas lines, serious crime problems, and the normal challenges of living in Nigeria -- all of which predate Yar'Adua's health crisis. ¶9. (C) The general expectation remains that VP Jonathan is positioned to advance if necessary, which seems to have assured Nigerians that a transition would be relatively peaceful. Contributing to this sense of quasi-normalcy is the modestly higher public profile VP Jonathan has assumed, both at major events and in how state-run media project him exercising official functions. Like Jonathan himself, the media are careful to portray him as a loyal caretaker until Yar'Adua returns to duty. The GON's official stance remains that Yar'Adua is responding to treatment, and Attorney General Michael Aondoakaa implying that the end of the President's absence is not in sight, asserted that Yar'Adua could constitutionally rule the country from any location in the world. -------------- Military at Ease -------------- Q ¶10. (C) Meanwhile, there continue to be no indications that the defense or military bureaucracies are churning to a halt or plotting extracurricular political engagement. Senior-level promotions have been recently announced, training continues, and the services are as responsive as usual to DAO and other USG initiatives. Even in the area of equipment procurement, it appears to be business as usual. For example, a deal with the French to purchase helicopters seems to be progressing as expected. ¶11. (C) Current and retired senior generals continue to insist that they are committed to observing the constitution and have put the word out to colleagues that they should monitor or encourage military officers to toe that line. Their assurances are almost always unconditional. -------------- Comment -------------- ABUJA 00002294 003 OF 003 ¶12. (C) The GON maintains that it's business as usual in Nigeria, and to some extent that is correct. But it is not sustainable as a media strategy and it is ineffective as an operational concept. Contacts agree that Yar'Adua is accessible to almost no one now other than his wife and his chief security officer, but speculation differs on whether that is because he needs to recuperate or because he is effectively comatose. Yesterday, one prominent North-South civil society group, the Arewa Consultative Forum, publicly accused the GON of lying about Yar'Adua's health. Failing concrete evidence that Yar'Adua is on the mend, this perception is likely to grow and further exacerbate the uncertain political climate. If Jonathan is named officially as acting president, so of this uncertainty might fade, but we can expect an entirely new set of challenges as Jonathan fights to establish himself and his leadership as northern heavyweights maneuver to succeed him in 2011. ¶13. (U) This report was coordinated with CG Lagos. SANDERS