CIVIL SOCIETY AND OPPOSITION GROUPS IN NIGERIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002246

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR NI
SUBJECT: CIVIL SOCIETY AND OPPOSITION GROUPS IN NIGERIA'S
BENUE STATE VOICE PESSIMISM OVER PROSPECTS FOR 2011
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Political Counselor James P. McAnulty
for reasons in Sections 1.4. (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Representatives of civil society organizations and
the opposition All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) expressed
little hope for credible national elections in 2011 during
a mid-November visit by PolOffs to Benue State in Nigeria's
Middle Belt. Only officials from the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP) voiced any confidence that fair
elections would occur. END SUMMARY.

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CIVIL SOCIETY WORKS FOR CHANGE
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2. (C) Church activists, working through the Justice
Development and Peace Commission (JDPC),Christian
Association of Nigeria (CAN),and Center for Development
and Social Justice (CEDASJ),expressed little to no
confidence to PolOffs during a November 16-17 visit to
Benue that the 2011 elections would be free and fair.
Similarly, they voiced no confidence in the ability of the
Independent National Election Commission (INEC) to run
transparent elections, as demonstrated by their poor
performance in the 2007 elections, which they characterized
as far worse than those in 2003. JDPC published electoral
reform recommendations in 2007, but noted that officials
had neither considered nor implemented them. In voicing
his frustration, CAN State Chairman Bishop Orkwar declared
that the "people prefer democracy if our votes
count, but, if not, military rule would be acceptable."
JDPC Director Father Bernard Asogo indicated that his group
met monthly with CAN to plan election oversight,
monitoring, and observation strategies. (COMMENT: Church
groups wield considerable influence in Benue, whose
population is 90 percent Christian and overwhelmingly
Catholic (70 percent). While the Tiv ethnic group
predominates, public officials hail from various ethnic
groups. The state does not suffer from any ongoing ethnic
conflicts. END COMMENT.)

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YOUTH HOLDS KEY
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3. (C) Civil Society members uniformly cited youth
unemployment and underemployment as potential sparks for
civil unrest in Benue. According to Bishop Orkwar, the
state's only remaining manufacturing plant (for producing
cement) supplies few jobs. While the agricultural sector
provides the main source of income, it primarily entails
small, family-run farms which do not employ persons outside
their families. Bishop Orkwar explained that, during the
August Youth Congress in Abuja, over 10,000 Catholic youth
delegates voted to volunteer as 2011 election monitors,
representing all states. Young people, who constitute the
vast majority of Nigeria's population, have become more
savvy, active, and dissatisfied with the status quo, the
Bishop said. CEDASJ Director Dr. Simeon Iber, a Nigerian
priest who formerly served as a parish priest in Port
Huron, Michigan, noted that he leads a program aimed at
voter registration and education among youth.

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RULING PARTY ALONE EXPRESSES CONFIDENCE
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5. (C) The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) state
leadership expressed confidence about prospects for
re-election of their candidates, since they considered
public services to be satisfactory in Benue. Party stalwarts
Qpublic services to be satisfactory in Benue. Party stalwarts
insisted
that incumbent Governor Suswam (of the PDP) remained so
popular that he would easily gain re-election in 2011.
They proudly reported that their governor participated in
their party's selection process for the gubernatorial
candidate for the February 2010 election in nearby Anambra
State. PDP, they said, remained the overwhelming, majority
party in Benue State, holding 10 of 11 seats in the House

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and 25 of 29 seats in the Assembly. State Party Secretary
Bem Dzoho confided that Suswam planned to vie for the
party's presidential nomination in 2015.

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ANPP OPPOSITION PLEADS FOR REFORM
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6. (C) Some 35 ANPP senior party officials met with PolOff to
communicate their dissatisfaction with the conduct of the
2007 elections. ANPP Chairman Godwin Ukpoju averred that
most Nigerians believed that "no office holder was elected
fairly" in the last national election. Insisting that they
had remained patient to date, these opposition leaders
warned that, if no change occurred in the 2011 elections,
"widespread chaos" would ensue, with Nigeria becoming "the
next Somalia with no central government." ANPP member
Silas McIkpah predicted that "people will abandon the
courts, if they cannot expect justice." Barrister Andrew
Wombo, who ran as a 2007 ANPP candidate for a seat in the
House of Representatives, claimed that he still did not
know how many votes he actually received, given that
authorities never published the final vote count. In 2007,
he said, uniformed military and police personnel collected
the ballots and frightened citizens from coming out to
vote, even though, he said, "there is no constitutional
role for the military in elections." Benue ANPP officials
complained that "INEC is the obvious problem," arguing that
INEC membership should come from non-partisan, civil
society groups, as a prerequisite for free and fair
elections.


8. (C) Benue interlocutors clamored for the U.S. to
continue to press GON officials to reform
the country's elections. They noted strong support from
civil society organizations and the opposition party for
the Secretary's strong statements on electoral reform
during her visit last August to Abuja. Interlocutors
recommended establishing sanctions, pressing for INEC
reform, joining other foreign governments in observing
elections, emphasizing voter education, and offering
training to candidates and campaign staffs to ensure free
and fair elections.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Although national elections are still 16 months away, our
interlocutors were already tightly focused on electoral preparations
and prospects. It is not surprising that opposition figures would
decry the electoral system and that incumbents would praise it, but
is a long distance to travel to achieve a credible a credible outcome
and to dent the widespread cynicism about the status quo.

SANDERS