HOPES DIM ON PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA'S HEALTH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002163 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA; E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR OVIP NI SUBJECT: HOPES DIM ON PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA'S HEALTH REF: A. QUINN-MCCULLOUGH E-MAIL 12/01 ¶B. ABUJA 2152 ¶C. ABUJA 2132 Classified By: Political Counselor James P. McAnulty for reasons in Sections 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (S) Nigerian President Yar'Adua remains gravely ill, according to multiple sources. One confidant at Yar'Adua's bedside insisted to Ambassador on December 1 that Yar'Adua is still unwell but does not yet appear to be at death's door; however, a doctor treating Yar'Adua told CG Jeddah at about the same time that the Nigerian president is in his final days. We suspect the latter report is more credible; so, we are looking at contingencies for the Mission. USG next steps should include a call to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to underscore the importance of constitutional due process. A contingency statement and press guidance are also being prepared. The prospect that the widely-disparaged Jonathan may be on the cusp of the presidency is a matter of growing concern for some Nigerians. END SUMMARY. -------------- YAR'ADUA'S CONDITION REMAINS GRAVE -------------- ¶2. (S) Multiple sources agree that President Yar'Adua remains gravely ill. Late November 30, Kwara State Governor Saraki, one of the Yar'Adua confidants who have gathered in Jeddah, told Ambassador that Yar'Adua was responding positively to treatment, had returned to his room, and had eaten. On December 1, however, Saraki acknowledged that Yar'Adua's condition was serious, even if he didn't appear to be at death's door. Information Minister Dora Akuniyi, known to be a straight shooter, separately confirmed to Ambassador on December 1 that Yar'Adua is in very bad shape, and promised an update later that day. Also on December 1, a doctor involved in Yar'Adua's treatment at King Faisal Hospital told CG Jeddah that the Nigerian president's condition is "malignant and irreversible," and that the end could occur in a matter of days or less (ref e-mail). ¶3. (SBU) Senate President David Mark publicly dismissed calls for Yar'Adua to step down for health reasons, and instead urged Nigerians to pray during the next nine days for Yar'Adua's recovery. Separately, the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) insisted that the National Assembly had no power to remove Yar'Adua unilaterally from office, and a PDP spokesperson reaffirmed support for Vice President Goodluck Jonathan. -------------- FOCUS GROWS ON VICE PRESIDENT -------------- ¶4. (C) As doubts intensify that Yar'Adua will leave the hospital alive, the role of Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is generating new speculation and concern as Yar'Adua's constitutionally anointed successor. ¶5. (C) Jonathan Mark, Special Assistant to his father Senate President David Mark, told PolOff December 1 that Vice President Jonathan visited his father, a close friend and fellow Catholic, on November 29 to seek his advice. Contrary to his public denial, Jonathan reportedly told Mark that certain quarters had in fact pressured him to resign. The Qcertain quarters had in fact pressured him to resign. The younger Mark said his father advised the Vice President against resignation, assuring him that he enjoyed the full support of the Senate and the country's constitution. The younger Mark added that there is considerable discomfort among Senate leaders over the religious and "North-South" undertones of the debate over Jonathan's future. -------------- ABUJA 00002163 002 OF 002 NEXT STEPS -------------- ¶6. (C) In addition to an immediate telephone call from Assistant Secretary Carson to Jonathan in the event of Yar'Adua's death, to underscore our support for constitutional due process and not him as a person, it would be appropriate and productive for the White House to issue a condolence statement from one head of state to another. We are also drafting contingency statements and guidance, and are reassessing Mission resources in the event of fast changes on the ground. The Defense Attache and Regional Affairs Offices are closely monitoring sentiments and activities in the military. -------------- KUDOS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) We would like to thank our colleagues at Embassy Riyadh and especially CG Jeddah for their outstanding support in tracking Yar'Adua's condition. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Dark rumors about Yar'Adua's health have given way to broad fears that Yar'Adua is likely entering his final days. Even if he defies the odds and returns to resume his duties, at least nominally, his authority has taken such a battering that he would be hard pressed to keep rivals in check, much less enforce his writ in government and the party. We will report on December 2 Vice President Jonathan's chequered past as a corrupt and ineffective state governor and his options in the current situation. Whether Jonathan thinks he can ride the constitution to the presidency, or if he is simply playing his cards close to his vest, is unclear. Senator Mark's apparent support for Jonathan is ironic since the ambitious Mark is next in line for the presidency, if both the president and the vice president leave the scene. SANDERS