PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA REMAINS IN SERIOUS CONDITION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002152 C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - Paragraph markings SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA; E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR NI SUBJECT: PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA REMAINS IN SERIOUS CONDITION IN SAUDI ARABIA ABUJA 00002152 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Political Counselor James P. McAnulty for reasons in Sections 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is an action request for Embassy Riyadh; please see para 12. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶2. (C) President Yar'Adua left the intensive care unit last night and was "sitting up slightly" in bed this morning, Kwara State Governor Bukola Saraki told the Ambassador in a phone call from Saudi Arabia mid-day November 30. Saraki, Katsina Governor Ibrahim Shema, and Yar'Adua sons-in-law Bauchi Governor Isa Yuguda and Kebbi Governor Saidu Usman Dakingari have all apparently flown to Saudia Arabia, which underscores the serious of Yar'Adua's condition. Vice President Goodluck Jonathan publicly denied reports that he faces intense pressure to resign. Should Yar'Adua die or become incapacitated, the Nigerian constitution calls for the Vice President to assume the presidency, but many observers -- caught up in the swell of rumors about Yar'Adua and his potential successor -- doubt that the succession would not exclude a strong Northern personality in the vacant VP slot. We continue to monitor Yar'Adua's situation closely with Yar'Adua confidants in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. Governor Saraki promised to call the Ambassador tonight with an update after his evening visit with Yar'Adua. Although VP Jonathan is nominally in charge, in the past the National Security Advisor and Secretary of the Federal Government have received the nod from Yar'Adua to run the country in his absence. Despite the uncertainty over Yar'Adua, there is no sense of tension in Nigeria and the military remains in the barracks. See para 11 for action request for Embassy Riyadh. END SUMMARY. -------------- YAR'ADUA CONFIDANTS FLY TO SAUDI ARABIA -------------- ¶3. (C) Four Northern State governors, including Saraki of Kwara, Shema of Katsina, Yuguda of Bauchi, and Dakingari of Kebbi (the latter two sons-in-law of Yar'Adua),have apparently flown to Saudi Arabia in recent days to be near the ailing President and First Lady. Saraki told the Ambassador November 30 from Saudi Arabia that President Yar'Adua left the intensive care unit of his Jeddah hospital the night of November 29 and was "sitting up slightly" in bed this morning. The protocol aide to Shema confirmed to PolOff November 28 that his boss had unexpectedly traveled to Saudi Arabia the day after Yar'Adua flew there. -------------- GERMAN DOCTOR CONFIRMS TERMINAL LUNG CANCER -------------- ¶4. (C) Peter Galle (protect),a German doctor and the Director of Internal Medicine at Universitats Medizin in Mainz, confirmed to PolOff November 28 that President Yar'Adua suffered from terminal lung cancer, a condition the doctor claimed to have diagnosed personally in April 2008. He expressed surprise that Yar'Adua remained alive, and said that he may be asked to stop in Saudi Arabia on the way back to Germany. Galle characterized reports of other ailments, Qto Germany. Galle characterized reports of other ailments, such as Churg-Strauss syndrome and liver problems, as "accurate." ¶5. (SBU) On November 26, GON officials announced that Yar'Adua is suffering from "acute pericarditis" but that he had responded "remarkably well" to treatment. (Note: This is the first official GON statement acknowledging any ailment affecting Yar'Adua. Previous statements downplayed his recent trips to Saudi Arabia as routine "medical checks.") -------------- RUMORS ABOUND -------------- ABUJA 00002152 002.2 OF 003 ¶6. (C) A U.S. businessman with ties to the offices of the Vice President and the First Lady told PolOff on November 29 that aides of the Vice President reported that Yar'Adua remained on life support and possibly was in an induced coma. This businessman added that contacts in France and the Middle East had similar information. He claimed that Vice President Jonathan was already exercising certain powers of the presidency, while "power brokers" worked out matters of succession before removing Yar'Adua from life support. ¶7. (C) On November 30, the Head of the Nigerian Journalists Union speculated to PAO that one quick way to halt rumors of the president's incapacity would be to summon the large Nigerian press contingent in Jeddah for the Hajj to witness Yar'Adua propped up in bed. The fact that this has not happened may speak volumes, the Nigerian said. -------------- POSSIBLE SUCCESSION SCENARIOS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Nigerian constitution provides for the Vice President to assume the Presidency and serve out the remainder of his term should the incumbent die or become incapacitated. In this case, the new President would name a new Vice President, subject to confirmation by the National Assembly. However, if the Vice President were to leave office before the Presidency became vacant (which we do not expect) but before the President could name a new Vice President, then the Senate President would serve temporarily as President for a maximum of three months to permit a special presidential election to occur. The person elected would serve out the remainder of the President's original term. ¶9. (C) Scenario speculation centers on whether Vice President Jonathan, a Christian from the South, would resign to allow a Northern Muslim politician to ascend to the top. The Vice President's office denied a press report that he was under intense pressure to resign and may have signed an undated letter for that purpose. A Nigerian journalist told PAO that his colleagues believe that National Security Advisor Abdullahi Sarki Mukhtar planted the story to gauge southern reaction to Jonathan's potentially being forced out of office. ¶10. (C) The U.S. businessman mentioned above believes that Jonathan is determined not to resign, and has struck a bargain to finish out Yar'Adua's term. Under this scenario, the Northerners in the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) would first select someone to fill the vacant vice presidential slot, and then that person would become the PDP's nominee in 2011. These potential contenders would include, in what we believe the current priority order to be, Yar'Adua son-in-law and Bauchi Governor Yuguda; Kwara Governor Saraki; and Sokoto Governor Wamakko. Former State Security Service (SSS) intelligence operative and current PDP House of Representatives member Rabe Nasir insisted to Poloff November 27 that other Northerners supported former National Security Adviser Aliyu Gusau over any of the governors. QSecurity Adviser Aliyu Gusau over any of the governors. -------------- WHOM DO WE CALL? -------------- ¶11. (C) Although President Yar'Adua has thus far defied the odds, we present the following next steps as place holders should something untoward quickly happen. In addition to expressing our heartfelt sympathies to the nation of Nigeria, we suggest a call from Washington to the Vice President, which would underscore our support for the constitutional process as opposed to the person. We would need to make this known publicly, stressing the importance of following the constitution. -------------- ACTION REQUEST FOR EMBASSY RIYADH -------------- ABUJA 00002152 003.2 OF 003 ¶12. (C) Given the important national and bilateral ramifications of Yar'Adua's ill health, we would be grateful if Embassy Riyadh and ConGen Jeddah could reach out to any of their relevant contacts and advise as appropriate. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) The unexpected departure for Saudi Arabia of key Yar'Adua confidants underscores the seriousness of the Nigerian president's condition. The longer he remains out of sight, the more intense rumors will become about his status, the activities of presidency insiders, and the machinations of his aspiring successors. Notably, current speculation appears focused on political manipulation scenarios and not on overt extra-constitutional action, such as a military intervention. We will remain in touch with key Yar'Adua confidants in Saudi Arabia and Nigeria to monitor Yar'Adua's condition and the political pulse here in Abuja. SANDERS