NIGERIAN SENATE DEBATES ELECTORAL REFORMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002151

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA;

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN SENATE DEBATES ELECTORAL REFORMS

Classified By: Political Counselor James P. McAnulty
for reasons in Sections 1.4 (d) and (d).


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) At a legislative retreat November 9 to 12 in Enugu,
Nigerian senators debated electoral reform issues and
challenges. Senate President Mark insisted that the current
system needs only "fine-tuning," but there was general
agreement that INEC should become financially independent and
electoral disputes should be resolved in the courts before
putative winners take office. INEC Committee Chairperson
Senator Isiaka Adeleke told POLOFF the retreat would not have
focused on electoral reform except for the emphasis by POTUS
and the Secretary on the importance of credible elections.
Concerns about voter lists, the difficulties of achieving
substantive reforms, and the importance of visible
international support for free and fair elections are
emerging as constant themes from our interlocutors across the
country. END SUMMARY.

--------------
PERCEPTIONS ON THE NEED FOR REFORM
--------------


2. (C) At a November 9 to 12 retreat on "Legislating for an
Enduring Electoral System in Nigeria," Nigerian senators
discussed and debated proposed electoral reforms and
amendments to the 1999 Nigerian Constitution. Senate
President David Mark of the ruling People's Democratic Party
(PDP) invited POLOFF and a Canadian colleague to attend the
retreat, and previewed with them the night before his key
themes for the retreat. Mark defended the performance of the
INEC head chairman, a close friend, averring that INEC
subordinates had committed excesses without the concurrence
or knowledge of the chairperson. Canadian POLOFF noted the
importance of ministerial accountability for the credibility
of any system, and related instances in Canadian and British
politics where ministers had quit over wrongdoing by others;
Mark was unconvinced.

-------------- --------------
MARK: REMOVAL OF INEC CHAIR NOT SYNONYMOUS WITH REFORM
-------------- --------------


3. (C) In his opening remarks at the retreat, Mark admitted
that the country's electoral system has "room for
improvement," but said it was "certainly not the worst in the
world, as some self-styled analysts would want us to
believe." He emphasized that the removal of the INEC
chairperson did not represent reform, and argued that Nigeria
needs only "fine-tuning" rather than a complete overhaul to
ensure good elections. Mark noted that "operators" in the
process must possess the political will to "play by the
rules."


4. (SBU) Iyabo Obasanjo Bello (PDP) commented on the
disconnect between citizens and the political process. She
explained, "No Nigerian thinks their vote elected me or
anybody else." While some reforms might be largely cosmetic,
she added, they are essential to restore the "trust of the
people."

--------------
LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE 1993 ELECTION
--------------


5. (SBU) Professor, Legislative Development Center Executive
Chairperson, and former Senator Jonathan Silas Zwingina (PDP)
(invited to speak at the retreat) highlighted the
vulnerability of voter registration lists as the greatest
threat to credible elections. Referring to the 1993
presidential election, Zwingina remarked that Nigeria should
Qpresidential election, Zwingina remarked that Nigeria should
adopt features that helped make that election, in the view of
many, the most fair and transparent in Nigerian history.
Such features included a "fixed" accreditation (registration)
time for voters, use of the "secret, open-ballot" system, and
immediate, transparent collation and announcement of results.


6. (SBU) Zwingina explained that, in 1993, authorities had
established a three-hour fixed accreditation time (from 9
a.m. until 12 noon),administered simultaneously, across the
nation on election day, during which all eligible voters
assembled at their designated polling stations and underwent

ABUJA 00002151 002 OF 003


a public count. As a result, everyone knew the correct total
of voters at each precinct. Authorities did not allow anyone
to join the queue after the process began. This system, he
said, prevented use of thugs and "voters for hire" whom party
officials could transport from polling station to polling
station to vote multiple times.


7. (SBU) As this system required all political actors,
including party leaders, activists, candidates, officials,
police, and ordinary voters, to show up at polling stations
across the country simultaneously, they could not engage in
voter intimidation or other nefarious activities during
registration and voting. The process prohibited movement
between polling stations, even characterizing such activities
as crimes. Immediately after voter registration, voters
queued in single lines and received ballot papers, which they
then marked secretly and folded in a private area of the
polling station and then deposited openly into ballot boxes
in a public areas of the polling station. After all voters
deposited their ballots, electoral officials counted the
ballots and announced the results in front of all accredited
voters who had witnessed the entire process. Electoral
officials, party agents, the police, and State Security
Service representatives endorsed and signed the results
sheets in front of everyone.


8. (SBU) Zwingina declared that the current "open-ended"
accreditation system was vulnerable to widespread
manipulation, and advocated a constitutional amendment
mandating the automatic de-registration of any party that
failed to garner at least 10 percent of the popular vote in
an election. He argued that a reduced number of political
parties and adoption of internal democracy would serve to
reduce electoral violence. He suggested penalties for media
houses that announced results not authenticated by the
electoral body, and encouraged greater use of international,
electoral observers.

--------------
BURDEN OF PROOF IN ELECTORAL CASES
--------------


9. (SBU) Senators generally agreed that the preponderance of
proof should go beyond probability and should rest on
empirical evidence. Senate Minority Leader Maina Ma'aji
Lawan of the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) expressed
frustration with the "status quo," in which petitioners lack
ready access to INEC documents that could support their
cases. INEC officials, he charged, could select which
information best supported the results that they had already
declared. Deputy Senate Minority Leader Adeleke Mamora of
the Action Congress (AC) Party noted that INEC officials had
deliberately refused to provide documents in electoral cases,
even when ordered to do so by the courts. Mamora proposed
that if a petitioner satisfactorily established that
irregularities existed in given elections, the burden of
proof should shift to INEC to show that such irregularities
did not change the outcome of the election. Former Chief
Justice Mohammed Lawal Uwais (also invited to address the
Senators) acknowledged that ERC members suggested shifting
the burden of proof to INEC, given the electoral body's
conduct in electoral cases. He pointed to technicalities and
exceptions in the existing Evidence Act that required review
and correction.

-------------- ---
TIME LIMITS FOR RESOLUTION OF ELECTORAL DISPUTES
QTIME LIMITS FOR RESOLUTION OF ELECTORAL DISPUTES
-------------- ---


10. (SBU) Uwais explained that recent, lengthy delays in
resolving election cases led ERC members to advocate amending
the constitution to require initial judgments in writing
within 120 days, and resolution of appeals within another 60
days. He said the ERC recommended injunctions against the
swearing-in of any candidate until the settling of all legal
challenges in the associated election. Uwais explained that
the ERC recommended a six-month limit due to the volume of
electoral challenges, simultaneous hearing of challenges by
the courts, and the desire to prevent any petitions from
becoming "time-barred" within an overburdened judicial
system. Uwais concluded that establishing time limits for
final resolution of electoral petitions was "desirable,
feasible, and practical."


11. (SBU) Senator Izunaso asserted that the judiciary
presents the "greatest threat to democracy" today. Grace
Bent (PDP) lamented the waste of expense and time experienced

ABUJA 00002151 003 OF 003


by election winners and the courts, since, in her view, every
loser filed a petition "almost automatically." Senator
Bassey Ewa-Henshaw (PDP) suggested discouraging frivolous
electoral petitions by requiring losing candidates to deposit
a predetermined amount at the time of filing a petition, to
be recovered only if the courts judged their petition to be
credible.

-------------- ---
THE "STAY-PUT DIRECTIVE" AND "INCUMBENCY FACTOR"
-------------- ---


12. (SBU) Uwais examined the "stay-put directive" in Section
149 of the 2006 Electoral Act, which requires that, even when
a disputed election exists, the "candidate returned as
elected" (i.e., declared as the victor by INEC),shall
"remain in office pending the determination of the appeal."
Uwais characterized this provision as "highly unpopular" with
the public, and concurred that the directive gave office
holders "undue advantage" over opponents, as they often
illegally used public funds to prosecute or defend the
petition or appeal. Moreover, Uwais alleged, incumbents
frequently used the state apparatus, including the media and
security agencies, to ensure victories in "rerun" elections.

-------------- --------------
PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION VERSUS "FIRST-PAST-THE-POST"
-------------- --------------


13. (SBU) Retreat participants debated the merits of a
proposed proportional representation system versus the
current "first-past-the-post" system. Drugs, Narcotics, and
Financial Crimes Committee Chairperson Senator Sola Akinyede
(PDP) noted the potential for abuse under a system of
proportional representation (PR) through nepotism and
corruption, and the award of positions by the party to the
highest bidder. He questioned the fairness of a scenario in
which a party winning two-thirds of the vote having its
representation decreased to 53 percent of the seats under
proportional representation. Ahmad Lawan (ANPP) expressed
doubt that proportional representation would work well in
Nigeria, given the existing culture of "haves and have-nots."


14. (SBU) Professor and former Ambassador to the U.S. Jubril
Aminu (PDP) opined that the strength of the executive branch
would undercut proportional representation. He declared that
"we know where power lies in a presidential system, and it is
not in the National Assembly." One senator described the
executive branch's incomplete implementation of the budget as
"a joke."


15. (C) At the end of the second day, Senate President Mark
declared that senators remained "very interested in electoral
reform," and predicted that actions ultimately taken "will
reflect the true mood of the public."

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


16. (C) Many senators noted to PolOffs the magnitude of the
problems Nigeria faces in developing and implementing
electoral reforms. INEC Committee Chairperson Senator Isiaka
Adeleke added that the retreat would not have focused on
reform as its main agenda item except for the emphasis by
POTUS and the Secretary on credible elections during their
respective visits to Accra and Abuja earlier this year; he
also urged the international community to press the GON to
enact necessary reforms. Concerns about voter lists, the
difficulty of achieving far-reaching reforms, and the
importance of visible international support for free and fair
Qimportance of visible international support for free and fair
elections are emerging as constant themes from our
interlocutors across the country.


17. (U) Embassy coordinated this telegram with ConGen Lagos.

SANDERS