NIGERIA CALLS GUINEAN OBSERVER MISSION "PREMATURE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002095 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W (JHUNTER),AF/RSA, INR/AA, INL/AAE; ADDIS ABABA FOR MISSION TO AU E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA CALLS GUINEAN OBSERVER MISSION "PREMATURE" REF: A. STATE 118801 ¶B. ABUJA 2076 ¶C. STATE 117180 Classified By: Acting DCM James P. McAnulty for reasons in Sections 1.4. (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Acting DCM and PolMilOff delivered demarche (Ref A) on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Observer Mission to Nigerian Foreign Ministry (MFA) ECOWAS Director Felix Pwol in Abuja November 19. Pwol described the idea as "premature," indicating that the Nigerian Government (GON) preferred to await recommendations by ECOWAS-appointed Facilitator Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore before agreeing to an international observer mission to Guinea. END SUMMARY. -------------- NIGERIA CALLS OBSERVER MISSION "PREMATURE" -------------- ¶2. (C) Pwol told Acting DCM and PolMilOff November 19 that the GON considered the idea of an international observer force for Guinea "premature." His government, Pwol explained, wanted to wait for recommendations from ECOWAS-appointed facilitator Compaore at the next ECOWAS Heads of State and Government Ordinary Summit in Abuja scheduled to occur December 21. He asserted that "rushing in" with an observer force now would only create problems in a country facing "weak governmental institutions." ¶3. (C) Pwol indicated that President Yar'Adua supported giving Compaore's mediation efforts time to work. Pwol suggested that Compaore had not had "adequate" time to hear from all relevant stakeholders. He cited a November 11 ECOWAS-European Union Ministerial "Troika" meeting in Abuja, which issued a communique expressing satisfaction with Compaore's consultations with "les Forces Vivres" and other stakeholders. According to Pwol, ECOWAS recently hired the former Senegalese Defense Staff Chief to draft a concept paper on the way forward and continued to work with the African Union (AU) to restore democracy to Guinea. ¶4. (C) Pwol agreed that that the Council for National Democracy and Development (CNDD) needed to leave power immediately. He expressed concern that junta leader Captain Dadis Camara did not retain command and control of the Guinean army. While acknowledging a potential role for an observer team in monitoring security sector reform, he indicated that the GON did not yet want to press Guinea to accept an observer mission. Pwol noted that the ECOWAS Council of Ministers would review the situation during consultations in Abuja from November 20 to December 2. -------------- ECOWAS DEFERS TO UN AND COMPAORE -------------- ¶5. (C) Separately, ECOWAS Peace and Security Commissioner Colonel Mahamane Toure told Acting DCM and PolMilOff November 18 that, while ECOWAS had developed contingency plans, the organization did not plan to send a miltary intervention force to Guinea until the United Nations (UN) or ECOWAS-appointed facilitator Compaore requested one. (Please see Ref B for details.) -------------- ECOWAS LEADERSHIP CHANGE -------------- ¶6. (C) When asked about a possible leadership change at Q6. (C) When asked about a possible leadership change at ECOWAS, Pwol responded generally, remarking that the current mandates for ECOWAS' nine statutory appointees, including the President and Commissioner positions, would end in December 2010 or January 2011. He observed that the next president would almost certainly come from a francophone country within ABUJA 00002095 002 OF 002 ECOWAS. He discarded the possibility of a president from either of the organization's two Portuguese-speaking countries, Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde, because of their small populations and recent, internal difficulties. He revealed that ECOWAS and the AU planned to convene a donors meeting in early 2010 to discuss ways to bolster security in Guinea Bissau. (COMMENT: Pwol did not appear aware of the possible departure of incumbent ECOWAS President Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas within the next two to three months. END COMMENT.) SANDERS