NIGER DELTA CEASE FIRE ENDS; POST-AMNESTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 001891 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/W, INR/AA, INL/AAE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KCRM NI SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA CEASE FIRE ENDS; POST-AMNESTY INITIATIVES SLOWLY MOVE FORWARD REF: LAGOS 387 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Dundas C. McCullough for reasons 1.4. (B) and (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) A relative but precarious calm prevails in most of the Delta, and major donors are ready to support GON rehabilitation programs if given a reasonable role to play. However, with "MEND" proclaiming an end to its cease-fire, the persistence of political infighting among key Delta figures, and the restiveness of ex-militants over being shortchanged on payments, the durability of this much-welcomed respite is unclear. End Summary. -------------- Meeting at Presidential Villa -------------- ¶2. (C) Cynicism is supplanting the cautious optimism that initially greeted last week's meeting of the Delta stakeholders at the Presidential Villa (reftel). Spokeswoman for the Niger Delta Amnesty Committee Dr. Timiebi Koripamo-Agari told PolOff October 14 that ex-militant leader Boyloaf did not want to attend, but relented after she persuaded him to go by suggesting it was better for him to be inside the room rather than outside when post-amnesty decisions are made. She stated she speaks to "all the militants" and Boyloaf daily. ¶3. (C) Bayelsa State Due Process Bureau Director General Von Kemedi, who is close to Bayelsa Governor Timipre Sylva, told us separately that the Villa meeting was not what the governor had expected because it was not a negotiation where any decisions were made; instead, "it was a time for long speeches." President Yar'Adua, he noted, promised the federal government would build rail lines and coastal highways throughout the Niger Delta. Von Kemedi remarked that "everyone welcomed these promises except a handful of 'hawks' within his own staff" who were visibly upset. -------------- Amnesty Committee Starts Rehabilitation Plan -------------- ¶4. (C) Koripamo-Agari said the amnesty committee is shifting its focus to rehabilitation and reintegration of ex-militants. To that end, it dropped some members and added the Minister of Niger Delta (MND). Senior Special Advisor to the President Amina Jibril, who is also responsible for Nigeria's Millennium Development Goals, joined the committee one month ago at President Yar'Adua's request to move the rehabilitation process forward. The MND previously chaired the amnesty committee until Minister of Defense (MOD) retired General Godwin Abbe took over in July. Although the committee has always reported directly to President Yar'Adua and not the year-old Niger Delta ministry, Koripamo-Agari indicated it has never met directly with the president. The Minister of Defense, who remains committee chair, is the only person who briefs the president. Koripamo-Agari expressed confidence that post-amnesty initiatives would succeed, but noted the current peace is "fragile." ¶5. (C) United Nations Development Partner (UNDP) consultants Q5. (C) United Nations Development Partner (UNDP) consultants told UNDP members October 13 that their visits to ex-militant camps revealed "a total unpreparedness" by the federal and state governments for the post-amnesty process. UNDP Country Director Turhan Saleh told us he had spoken to Amina Jibril about the lack of a federal government rehabilitation plan, while MOD General Abbe pushed international partners issue statements in support of Nigeria's amnesty process. MOD Abbe also gave Turhan what he called "a rough draft" of a rehabilitation plan and asked for UNDP's input, representing the first time the amnesty committee sought outside technical ABUJA 00001891 002 OF 004 assistance in the DDR process. ¶6. (C) Turhan stated the committee still has "considerable sensitivity over foreign technical assistance" and several members believe a Niger Delta "solution should be purely Nigerian" without any "interference" from the international community. MOD Abbe asked for a proposed DDR operational plan from the UNDP by the end of October. Turhan stated he met with GON "staff" late October 15 to work out the basic details for the operational plan. According to Turhan, operational plans normally take six months to develop, but he will have a framework by October 31. Nonetheless, "the best case scenario is three months" before any rehabilitation will begin. -------------- International Community Endorses Amnesty -------------- ¶7. (C) World Bank Nigeria Country Director Onno Ruhl stated at a UNDP Amnesty Meeting October 13 that the World Bank would financially support Nigeria's DDR process, but only after the GON allows international partner access and shows some sign of transparency. The European Union (EU) First Counsellor Head of Operations Pierre Philippe said the EU is to issue a statement of support October 16 and has funds available if "Nigerians come up with a viable plan, not scholarships abroad or ICT." UK High Commission PolCounselor pulled PolMilOff aside after the meeting to say that HMG decided to support the GON's efforts on amnesty only after deciding that "the risk of doing so was minimal." -------------- Ateke Tom Drags Senate President into Dispute -------------- ¶8. (C) The Special Assistant to (and son of) the Senate President David Mark, Jonathan Mark, told Poloff October 13 that former militant leader Ateke Tom warned the Senate President during a recent courtesy call of renewed bloodshed in Rivers State if the displacement of Okrika people did not cease. Tom accused Rivers Governor Rotimi Amaechi, an ethnic Ekwere, of "ethnic cleansing" against the people of Okrika, an Ijaw subclan. Tom alleged a systematic demolition of shantytowns along the Rivers waterways and the displacement of Okrika people from their ancestral lands without compensation or provision of adequate alternative places for habitation. The younger Mark maintained that his father enjoys the respect of Port Harcourt (PH) area elders, with whom he has had relationships for decades. ¶9. (C) A former militant now in Port Harcourt who goes by the name of "Williams" told Poloffs October 14 that the Okrika-Ekwere matter is essentially a real estate dispute over prime waterfront property. He said the area is largely a slum which Governor Amaechi has decided to redevelop purportedly to enhance quality of life and reduce crime, much of which is said to emanate from the area in dispute. According to Williams, Amaechi has been buying people's modest houses along the waterfront in order to demolish them Qmodest houses along the waterfront in order to demolish them and clear space for a new development to include better quality housing units. Williams recounted the rumor that the governor plans to transfer money gained from the sale of the old Okrika dwellings to his fellow Ekwere so that they may purchase the new residences. Such a sale of Okrika occupied land to ethnic Ekwere could lead to further conflict. -------------- Relative Calm in the Niger Delta -------------- ¶10. (C) Hercules Manager Coleman McDonough stated that "all is quiet" in Eket and Warri, and he has allowed Hercules expatriate staff, for the first time in months, to venture out to local restaurants and the golf course in Port Harcourt. One AmCit contractor based in Port Harcourt stated "there are more Westerners in the grocery stores nowadays ABUJA 00001891 003 OF 004 than ever before." Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Supervisor Mike Orji claimed that there were no police checkpoints during his trip to Warri October 11. -------------- But for How Long? -------------- ¶11. (C) Niger Delta Technical Committee member Tony Uranta told us October 16 he is happy that the post amnesty period has so far brought "an element of peace" to the Delta but this respite can only be sustained if the GON continues to talk with all regional stakeholders. He regretted that the GON hastily implemented the amnesty deal against the technical committee's advice that amnesty should constitute the last phase of a confidence building process. Uranta also criticized the GON rejection of the proposed meeting with the so-called Aaron team (MEND's recommended negotiators) which he said consisted of "men of integrity who are equally interested in peace and development of the region." Uranta warned the GON not to treat MEND as a group that no longer matters. He decried recent JTF threats to deal ruthlessly with MEND if it resumes hostilities, predicting it would provoke resurgent militancy. Uranta stated the National Assembly appropriated N10.2 billion (about 68 million USD) for allowances payments to an estimated 15,000 militants, and wondered what happens when the money runs out. ¶12. (C) Schlumberger Managing Director Steve Fulgham noted to us October 16 the pitiful level of government stipends paid to the militants compared to what they earned from kidnapping, bunkering and other criminal activities. "Christmas shopping season is around the corner in the Delta" and criminal activity historically rises at the end of the year according to Fulgham. He stated there was an attack on a vessel October 14 in the Delta. MEND has also made statements about an imminent attack on the scale of last June's Bonga attack and July's attack on the Cove in Lagos' harbor. Bunkering has subsided somewhat, he said, but has rebounded to 150,000 bbd in the last two weeks. Despite this surge in increased bunkering, more oil is coming online as repairs are made to existing pipelines. ¶13. (C) Former Bayelsa State militant from Nembe Creek "Okusa" told Laboff October 15 that GON payments to former militants are being whittled down by corrupt Local Government Authority Chairmen who leave only a fraction for the intended beneficiaries. While many low-level militants are tired of a lifestyle of violence and want to begin new lives, many are angry by being shortchanged. -------------- MEND Proclaims End to Cease-Fire -------------- ¶14. (C) Spokesman for the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) Jomo Gbomo issued a press release proclaiming a resumption of hostilities against the oil industry, Nigerian armed forces, and its collaborators as of midnight, October 16. While Niger Delta contacts predict the peace to last three to six months, they doubt the GON will be Qpeace to last three to six months, they doubt the GON will be able to implement a successful rehabilitation program in time to avert disaffected ex-militants returning to the creeks. -------------- Retaining the Military Option -------------- ¶15. (C) Some Nigerians continue to affirm their belief that the military could impose a lasting peace on the region. House of Representatives Committee Deputy Chairman on the Army, Chief Mathew Omegara, told PolMilOff October 15 the only way amnesty could succeed is with a massive Joint Task Force (JTF) military offensive. He believed that only after the government "beat them down, destroyed their camps, and removed all incentive to continue in criminal enterprises" would the militants give up, sincerely accept amnesty, and ABUJA 00001891 004 OF 004 pursue lasting peace. Omegara was convinced all the militant leaders would return to business as usual because oil bunkering was too profitable. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶16. (C) In the Byzantine world of Delta politics, it is always a challenge to divine the rationale that drives cause and effect. There is undoubtedly a relative calm in most parts of the Delta region, and while ex-militants in several areas are unhappy with their situation, they have yet to move back towards the creeks. In addition, major donors--particularly the cash-heavy EU--are ready to fund a rehabilitation process, if given a reasonable role to play. The House Committee deputy chair aside, there is little appetite here for renewed offensive military action in the Delta. What is not clear, however, is what remains of "MEND" and what it might be able or prepared to do to undermine the stabilization process. More likely, though, the greatest risks to peace come from corruption, political myopia, and the many other problems normally associated with Nigerian politics. End Comment. ¶17. (U) Embassy Abuja and Consulate General Lagos collaborated on this telegram. SANDERS