NIGERIA: OIL-GAS UNIONS AND EXXONMOBIL WEIGH IN ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001633 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OIL-GAS UNIONS AND EXXONMOBIL WEIGH IN ON AMNESTY Classified By: Political Counselor James McAnulty for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: LabOff and Lagos EconOff met with ExxonMobil and Nigeria's oil and gas unions on August 26 in Lagos to hear their perspectives on President Yar'Adua's amnesty initiative. The unions and ExxonMobil agreed that amnesty is a good idea, but questioned the sincerity of both the GON and the militants. END SUMMARY. -------------- EXXONMOBIL -------------- ¶2. (C) ExxonMobil Nigerian representative Udom Inoyo, a resident of Akwa Ibom state, told LabOff and EconOff that amnesty is not going well at all. He suggested that "the percentage of arms being laid down, in comparison to the percentage of actual arms, is highly questionable" and added that he was not convinced that the GON even knows its own next steps. Inoyo offered that should the amnesty initiative not work, the GON will not be interested in another round of talks. He asserted that the Akwa Ibom governor and many other southern leaders viewed GON,s quashing of Boko Haram in the north as an intentional demonstration of GON power to crush any uprising that challenges its interests. -------------- OIL AND GAS UNIONS -------------- ¶3. (C) Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) President Babatunde Ogun stated that amnesty is a good idea, but saw no sign of any long-term development component, which Ogun described as "critical" to any solution in the Niger Delta conflict. Nigeria's National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) President Peter Akpatassan claimed ample evidence existed that militants are handing over old weapons. He perceived no evidence yet of a more sustainable development component to amnesty, the absence of which, he concluded, would leave only one option -- maintaining the status quo. "Unless the government wants to shut down oil production for two years," he said, "a large-scale Niger Delta war is also not an option." Akpatassan added that corrupt political and economic interests involved in oil bunkering among both militants and politicians is too vast to ignore or overcome. ¶4. (C) Two of Nigeria's largest umbrella union consortiums, Nigeria Labor Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) described the amnesty initiative as "putting the cart before the horse." Both said that a Niger Delta solution cannot be just about a military solution, but rather a political and economic one. They observed that unless the root cause of the problem -- corruption -- is addressed, there will be no hope for moving forward. NLC Director for Lagos Denja Yakub cited the case of former Delta governor James Ibori as a perfect example. Yakub claimed that Ibori is a principal beneficiary of bunkering, using militants in the last three elections to intimidate voters and rig elections. "Everyone is connected in some way," claimed Yakub. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Hundreds of PENGASSAN and NUPENG members work, travel through, or live in the Niger Delta, and their leaders do not seem to see any change or potential change for the volatile region as a result of amnesty. END COMMENT. ¶6. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. MCCULLOUGH