NIGERIA: BAUCHI STATE GOVERNOR ATTEMPTING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001115 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BAUCHI STATE GOVERNOR ATTEMPTING TO IMPEACH DEPUTY REF: ABUJA 679 Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Bauchi State Governor Isa Yuguda is plotting to impeach Deputy Governor Muhammad Garba Gadi for refusing to join him in defecting from the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) earlier this year (reftel). According to press reports, an anonymous ANPP member of the state House of Assembly said he was invited to Bauchi State Deputy Speaker Musa Muhammad Pali's residence on the night of June 16, where he reportedly was told that the Governor will pay 10 million naira (about $68,000) to legislators willing to sign an impeachment notice against Deputy Governor Garba Gadi. The legislator said there were seven other Assemblymen from both ANPP and PDP at the Deputy Speaker's residence at that time, presumably to receive the same offer. The legislator doubted, however, that the Governor would succeed, noting that Yuguda had done a poor job of developing contacts in the Assembly, and had rarely taken legislators into his confidence - including regarding his decampment to the PDP. ¶2. (C) Since Yuguda's decampment to the PDP last April, the relationship between the Governor and the Deputy Governor has significantly soured. (Note: Yuguda had originally left the PDP in 2006 when it became clear he would not wrestle the gubernatorial nomination from then-Governor Muazu; he then won the ANPP nomination, and defeated Muazu in the 2007 elections. End note.) After Yuguda rejoined the PDP, Deputy Governor Garba Gadi gave a press conference to declare his intention to remain loyal to the ANPP and not follow Yuguda to the PDP. Interlocutors in Bauchi told PolSpecialist on June 18 that Yuguda blames Garba Gadi for his political woes, including the distribution of a newly released popular song criticizing the Governor which was sourced to the ANPP. The Governor has now relieved the Deputy of all of his official duties in the Cabinet. Interestingly, some interlocutors claim that Yuguda may also face challenges from within the PDP, spearheaded by former Governor Muazu. (Note: In 2007, Yuguda was elected after former Governor Muazu attempted to remove his Deputy Governor, who was popular among the Bauchi people. Muazu was close to former president Obasanjo, but their relationship was not enough to ensure Muazu a second term. End Note.) ¶3. (C) Comment: Both Yuguda and Garba Gadi are likely to contend in the 2011 gubernatorial race ) Yuguda for PDP and Garba Gadi for ANPP. Therefore it is in Yuguda's interest to depose the Deputy Governor now so as to hinder his ability to build much of a base before 2011. Nigerian state assemblymen are notoriously easy to buy, and often eager to stay close to the Governor, who largely controls the state treasury. Thus, while the Bauchi Assembly is dominated by the ANPP, Garba Gadi's impeachment is a feasible outcome. But, as the saying goes, "what goes around comes around," and anger within the state against Yuguda for his defection to the PDP is growing. Yuguda finds himself in a situation very similar to that which led to his own defeat of then-incumbent Governor Muazu in 2007, in that Muazu had earlier undermined his own popularity by attempting to remove a popular deputy governor. Yuguda may be betting on his status President Yar'Adua's son-in-law to help ensure his second term. Given Yar'Adua's failing health, however, this may not prove a good bet. End Comment. ¶4. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. SANDERS