NIGER DELTA AMNESTY OFFER AND "ACCEPTANCE": LESS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001102 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA BAGHDAD FOR DMCCULLOUGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA AMNESTY OFFER AND "ACCEPTANCE": LESS THAN MEETS THE EYE REF: A. ABUJA 601 ¶B. ABUJA 493 ¶C. ABUJA 586 ¶D. LAGOS 190 ¶E. LAGOS 191 Classified By: Political Counselor Walter N.S. Pflaumer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: A lawyer for Niger Delta "militant" leader Ateke Tom announced on June 15 that Tom was prepared to accept President Umaru Yar'Adua's amnesty offer (first made on April 2). Yar'Adua reacted positively to the statement, and offered to provide within a week details of how the amnesty would work and what rehabilitation assistance it would include (FYI: the GON has been promising these details since early April, but has not so far delivered. End FYI). In media interviews June 16, Tom appeared to back away from his alleged acceptance, saying that the GON would first have to end its current offensive against the "militants" and disband the military and police Joint Task Force (JTF) which has been waging it, before he would be willing even to hold talks with the government about amnesty. Our sense is that there is less to this exchange than meets the eye. End Summary. AMNESTY OFFER "ACCEPTED" - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) On June 15, the lawyer for "militant" leader Ateke Tom told journalists that Tom and his Niger Delta Vigilante Movement were prepared to hand over their weapons "the moment the modalities for the grant of amnesty are completed and announced by the Federal Government." The lawyer called for the GON to put "the necessary framework, both legal and otherwise," in place as soon as possible. He added that this action would be accompanied by the cessation of hostilities by the Joint Task Force (JTF -- the joint military and police unit which is conducting the GON's offensive against the "militants"). ¶3. (SBU) President Yar'Adua reacted positively to the reported offer. During a press appearance with Sierra Leone President Ernest Bai Koroma, Yar'Adua said he was "highly delighted" by the news. In remarks carried on local broadcast media, he added that he expected the amnesty committee he had set up back in April to complete implementation planning before the end of this week. The plans would include both the procedures which would have to be followed, and information on rehabilitation assistance for those accepting the deal. This would include opportunities for education and employment. He added: "I welcome any leader and all its members who are ready to accept the granting of amnesty by government and I assure them that within this week, latest early next week, the terms will be made public." ¶4. (C) Villa officials later told journalists on background that Yar'Adua was calling a meeting for June 18 to discuss the terms of the amnesty with a key group of senior officials. According to our Villa contacts, those invited to the meeting include VP Jonathan, Senate President Mark, House Speaker Bankole, the governors of five Delta states (Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom and Ondo),Defense Minister Mustapha, Interior Minister Abbe, Niber Delta Minister Ekaette, SGF Yahyale Ahmed, NSA Mukhtar and CDS Air Marshal Dike. (Comment: More than one observer has pointed out that, when he first proposed an amnesty back on April 2 (see ref A),Yar'Adua said he would be announcing the details "within a week." The delay in doing so likely reflects some disagreement within the Villa over the issue. End comment.) OR PERHAPS NOT - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) In June 16 interviews in "This Day" newspaper and broadcast on the BBC, Ateke Tom appeared to back away substantially from his lawyer's offer of the previous day. ABUJA 00001102 002 OF 002 Tom insisted that a cessation of the current GON offensive and the disbandment of the JTF were preconditions before he would be ready to sit down with the government to discuss the terms of any amnesty. These discussions would have to reach satisfactory conclusions on job opportunities for his men before they would be prepared to lay down their arms. Asked by "This Day" if he would expect the GON to pay him for any weapons and ammunition he might surrender, Tom replied in pidgin to the effect of "Why wouldn't they pay me for the arms? Do they think I picked them up in the road?" Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who strongly backs the JTF offensive, immediately had his spokesman issue a statement declaring that Tom's earlier alleged offer to accept the amnesty should be "taken with a pinch of salt," alleging that it was just another of Tom's "antics" to distract attention from what he was actually doing. COMMENT - - - - ¶6. (C) In our view, several outside observers, including Stephen Davis who spoke at the same June 15 CSIS event in Washington addressed by Foreign Minister Maduekwe, have attempted to make more of Ateke Tom's "offer," and Yar'Adua's acceptance, than meets the eye. Some international media have tried to jump on the same bandwagon. President Yar'Adua first mooted the idea of an amnesty back on April 2 in a meeting with senior leaders of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP),adding that the offer would include plans to rehabilitate "militants" who were prepared to lay down their arms, and help for them to reintegrate into society. He promised that the details of the offer "within a week," but failed to do so. After the JTF began its current offensive in mid-May, Yar'Adua reiterated his offer, but again failed to provide details of how the amnesty would work and what sort of rehabilitation it would include. ¶7. (S/NF) While we believe Yar'Adua is sincere about offering some sort of amnesty, there appear to be at least some within the military and the Villa who are pushing back against the idea. We will be watching closely to see if the June 18 meeting leads to any real progress toward announcing a plan. Villa contacts have been reluctant to discuss the content of the meeting, though the Special Assistant to one of those attending claimed that one factor in the discussions would be documents (seized by the JTF during a raid on "militant" leader Tompolo's camp) which apparently implicate "PDP stalwarts in the region." Interestingly, the five governors included in the meeting are all PDP, while the opposition governor of Edo state is excluded. As for Ateke Tom's "acceptance" of amnesty, it boils down to only an offer to talk about amnesty if, inter alia, the JTF stops it current offensive and is disbanded, obvious non-starters. End comment. ¶8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. SANDERS