NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR AND ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000010 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR AND ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE CHAIR DISCUSS NEXT STEPS REF: ABUJA 2405 Classified By: Ambassador Robin Renee Sanders for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador met with the Chairman of the Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) former Chief Justice Mohammadu Uwais on December 22. Uwais was not aware of the Presidency's reaction to the ERC's report on recommendations to improve Nigeria's flawed electoral processes, as it had just been presented on December 11 (reftel). The most controversial recommendations in the report, according to Uwais, are the allowance of independent candidates, abolition of all State Independent Electoral Commissions (SIECs),the introduction of proportional representation, and a wholesale reorganization of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC),including the formation of new regulatory bodies for political party registration and oversight, electoral offenses, and constituency delimitation. "Arms length financing" of INEC (similar to the Judiciary's appropriations process) was also urged to reduce the potential for political manipulation. The report's suggested combination of "first past the post" and proportional representation in the National Assembly, would result in 108 additional seats in the House of Representatives. Yet to be determined is whether the political will to reform the electoral system truly exists and will be acted upon, beyond creating more bureaucracy and expanding existing institutions. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador met with the Chairman of ERC former Chief Justice Mohammadu Uwais on December 22 to discuss the ERC Report released December 11. The report calls for a wholesale reorganization of INEC, with the creation of a Political Parties Registration and Regulatory Commission, an Electoral Offenses Commission and a Constituency Delimitation Commission. It recommends that INEC limit its focus to "procedural issues," while most other matters -- e.g. voter education, party oversight, and information dissemination -- would fall to the new Commissions, which would have independent oversight structures outside of INEC's purview. For example, the Political Parties Registration and Regulatory Commission would report to the Senate and be overseen by the Auditor-General of the Federation. It would be responsible for the monitoring of primary elections within the various political parties. This body would also be responsible for registering the various non-governmental organizations involved in electoral matters, and supposedly overseeing the activities of civil society groups in the area of democracy and good governance. The report includes draft legislation to amend the Electoral Act, which would be required to create the proposed Political Parties Registration and Regulatory Commission and Electoral Offenses Commission. Members serving on these new commissions would be nominated via a consultative process identical to that proffered for nominees to INEC. The elimination of the SIECs would require a constitutional amendment. ¶3. (U) The report recommended that INEC Commissioners be nominated by the National Judicial Council (which includes members of the Nigerian Bar Association, labor unions, civil society and women's organizations); nominees would then be forwarded to the Council of State (of which the President is a member),which would select one of the nominees and send him or her to the Senate for confirmation. This is meant to lessen the political influence of the executive over the supposedly independent Commission, and increase the involvement of NGO stakeholders in the process. INEC would also gain greater independence via the appropriations process. "Arms length financing" of it (similar to that of the Judiciary) would complement the new nomination process and further decrease the potential for political manipulation. INEC would submit a budget proposal to the NASS which would then vote on legislation including INEC budgetary allocations as a first-line charge. The INEC Chairman would report to the Senate, and all Commissioners would serve five-year terms. ¶4. (C) Uwais also noted that the report calls for the ABUJA 00000010 002 OF 002 establishment of a quasi-governmental think-tank to be named the Center for Democratic Studies. The Ambassador questioned the need for yet another such institution given the fine work done by the National Democratic Institute, International Republican Institute and other civil society groups with regards to voter education and promoting good governance. (Comment: Post speculates that perhaps Uwais was simply angling for his own think tank via creation of the proposed Center. End Comment.) ¶5. (SBU) Uwais said the ERC members also recommended allowing independent candidates to run for public office without declaring a party affiliation, theoretically allowing for more grass roots democracy. According to Uwais any individual wishing to run for office will simply need a minimum of ten voter signatures from each ward in the state or country, depending on whether the office sought is a state or national office. In addition, the report recommended the introduction of some positions based on proportional representation to moderate what has been described as the "do or die" stakes of Nigerian elections. Uwais maintained that under such a system women and the disabled would be much better represented. However, in order to realize partial proportional representation, 108 seats would be added to the 360 current members of the National Assembly (NASS). The Ambassador noted that mixed electoral systems were quite complicated and questioned the efficiency of a 468 member NASS vis-a-vis the current 360 representative chamber. In response to concerns about efficiency in general, Uwais noted that the ERC report also recommends streamlining the number of judges on election tribunal panels from five to three, in order to free up judges to hear other cases and expedite the judicial process. Way Forward =========== ¶6. (C) Uwais broached with the Ambassador the idea of USG funding for the printing and distribution of copies of the ERC report. Ambassador suggested making the report available to all online would both save money and increase access. Uwais urged the USG to support the recommendations in the report, and noted that the GON will set up a committee to review the report and eventually issue a white paper. According to Uwais, it was "too early to tell" how the USG or civil society could best advance the cause of meaningful electoral reform in light of the report and its recommendations. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: The report of the ERC, like other committee reports, will only produce effective change if the political will to reform the electoral system is present at both the highest and broadest levels. As an illustration of the daunting nature of electoral reform in Nigeria, a constitutional amendment, such as that to dissolve the 36 SIECs, must pass with a two-thirds majority in at least two-thirds of the various state assemblies, and by the same margin in both chambers of the NASS. This would require approximately 800 elected officials to vote against the system that brought them to power, and which in the majority of cases keeps them there. The question remains whether there exists a broad enough base of political will to truly reform the electoral system. We also note that the principle criticisms of the 2007 elections were not a result of the Constitution or the Electoral Act, but rather of their lack of implementation by the Nigerian political class. Despite these criticisms, however, we note that efforts to involve the Nigerian Bar Association and civil society in the selection processes for the various commissioners are a step in the right direction. END COMMENT. ¶8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. Piascik