CROWN PRINCE SOUNDS ALARM ON IRAN

S E C R E T ABU DHABI 000736 SIPDIS NOFORN STATE FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2019 TAGS: PREL EFIN ECON IR AE SUBJECT: CROWN PRINCE SOUNDS ALARM ON IRAN Classified by Ambassador Richard Olson, reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (U) This cable contains an action request in para 12. ¶2. (S/NF) Summary. On July 15, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner joined Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan (MBZ) and Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan (ABZ) for a dinner covering a range of regional issues. MBZ expressed serious concern over Iran's regional intentions and pleaded for the U.S. to shorten its decision-making timeline and develop a "plan B." He encouraged the U.S. to clearly communicate 'red lines' to the Iranian Government, on nuclear and regional stability issues, with direct consequences for transgressions. He painted to a nuclear Iran as an existential threat to the UAE and invoked the well being of his grandchildren while urging the U.S. to act quickly. MBZ asked for close coordination between the U.S. and UAE to deal with the Iranian threat. End Summary. ¶3. (S/NF) Secretary Geithner asked the Crown Prince for his views on the situation in the region, particularly in Iran. Geithner described the U.S. strategy on Iran, including our intention to move forward with multilateral financial sanctions while waiting for Iran to decide on its engagement with the U.S. He also conveyed appreciation for the important support that UAE provides to other regional trouble spots. ¶4. (S/NF) MBZ described a nuclear armed Iran as absolutely untenable. He pointed to Iran's relentless ambitions to restore regional hegemony as evidenced by destabilizing interference in Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Palestine. He believes that 'all hell will break loose' if Iran attains the bomb, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey developing their own nuclear weapons capability and Iran instigating Sunni - Shia conflict throughout the world. He said Iran is surrounding Israel - driven by ideological conviction - and will threaten Israel's existence should it go nuclear. At the same time, he described Iran's ambitions as reflecting a desire to restore Persia's great-power status, rather than driven by religious convictions. ¶5. (S/NF) MBZ differentiated the long term threat posed by Iran from other menacing states like North Korea or Syria. Where these other regimes were ruled by small cadres of corrupt 'old guard' officials, the Iranian regime has raised its next generation to carry out its designs for hegemony. As such, the world will be dealing with Iran's destabilizing ambitions for decades. MBZ assesses that the Iranian regime has emerged from the recent election strife stronger and more resolute. ¶6. (S/NF) While careful not to suQY.JQoWoRth Iran, MBZ described a near term conventional war with Iran as clearly preferable to the long term consequences of a nuclear armed Iran. Without timely and decisive action by the United States, MBZ believes that Israel will strike Iran, causing Iran to launch missile attacks - including hits on the UAE - and to unleash terror attacks worldwide. In his view, 'the map of the Middle East' would change. He expects widespread civilian conflict to erupt as Iran sparks Sunni - Shia violence worldwide (including the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia which he sees as the greatest vulnerability, along with Iraq, in the Arab world). He speculated that such an event could unfold within six months time and resolved that the UAE is prepared to defend itself. He believes that an Israeli strike will not be successful in stopping Iran's nuclear program, and therefore we need to plan. ¶7. (S/NF) Regarding the recent election in Iran, MBZ cautioned that Mir Hossein Musavi is no different than Ahmedinejad when it comes to their nuclear ambitions, 'same goal, different tactic.' In this respect, he regards Musavi as more dangerous than his competitor, as at least Ahmedinejad was 'an open book.' He reminded Secretary Geithner that Musavi and his advisors are part of the same group that took the U.S. Embassy in 1979. ¶8. (S/NF) MBZ questioned Europe's basic understanding of the threat posed by Iran, and wrote off their resolve to deal with the situation. He was appalled by 'top European diplomats' that were unconcerned by the possibility of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. He shared his theory that Russia was trying to instigate conflict between the U.S. and Iran as a means to weaken the U.S. and drive up oil prices. He suggested we could use Russia's narrow views to help persuade Russia to join international actions against Iran. ¶9. (S/NF) MBZ stated that financial sanctions would never be sufficient to stop Iran, but allowed that the U.S. should continue with such measures to demonstrate to the Arab world that we tried everything. He pledged continued cooperation and support for international sanctions and encouraged further action in the UN and EU, as well as the U.S. ¶10. (S/NF) MBZ suggested that the key to containing Iran revolves around progress in the Israel/Palestine issue. He argued that it will be essential to bring Arab public opinion on board in any conflict with Iran and roughly 80% of the public is amenable to persuasion. To win them over, the U.S. should quickly bring about a two state solution over the objections of the Netanyahu government. He suggested working with moderate Palestinians that support the road map, and forget about the others as there is no time to waste. ¶11. (S/NF) Foreign Minister ABZ urged the U.S. to make better use of its allies in the region and engage Russia and China in a productive way on this issue wherever possible. He urged clear and forceful messaging to Iran and more regional gatherings (i.e. P+5+1 and GCC+3) to increase pressure and isolation. ¶12. (S/NF) ACTION REQUEST: MBZ would like to visit Washington in late July to discuss Iran with President Obama and other senior officials. Treasury and Embassy recommend continuing the dialogue with MBZ as soon as possible. ¶13. (SBU) This cable has been cleared by Andy Baukol, Department of Treasury Acting Assistant Secretary for International Affairs. GREENE