UAE LEADERSHIP CONGRATULATES AHMADINEJAD AMIDST PROTESTS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 000608 FOR NEA/ARP and NEA/IR E.O. 12958: DECL: (####) TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO IR AE SUBJECT: UAE LEADERSHIP CONGRATULATES AHMADINEJAD AMIDST PROTESTS AND NEGATIVE EDITORIALS Classified by Ambassador Richard Olson, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: Amid straightforward press reporting of ongoing protests over the Iranian presidential election results, the UAEG's official news agency WAM issued a statement June 15 noting that UAE President Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan had cabled a congratulatory message to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (text in para two). Meanwhile, non-violent gatherings by Iranians at their Consulate General in Dubai continue to protest the results (para three). UAE newspaper editorials note Ahmadinejad's triumph while pointing to ongoing protests as a wakeup call highlighting the gap between the Iranian leadership and the public. There has been no press mention of the impact on UAE-Iran relations. Comment: The UAE's cable of congratulations was likely a Pavlovian response to a new Government, rather than any carefully thought out signal of approval for Ahmadinajad or the electoral process. Being completely unfamiliar with elections, and altogether too familiar with Persians, the UAE is likely to tread lightly on things Iranian, even in dealing with street protests that are theoretically illegal. End summary and comment. Congratulatory statement -------------- ¶2. (U) Begin text of June 15 WAM statement: President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan in a cable congratulated Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on winning a second term in the recent Iranian election. Vice President and Prime Minister of UAE and Ruler of Dubai His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum has sent a similar cable of congratulations to the Iranian leader. End text. Street protests in Dubai -------------- ¶3. (SBU) With a large Iranian expatriate community in Dubai, protests around the Iranian consulate drew what some participants estimated as 500 persons on the morning of June 15, following a smaller gathering the morning prior. Protestors had large placards, wore green, and were reportedly quite vocal. Asked to disperse by Dubai police (for lack of a permit to gather),the protestors engaged in a friendly face-off with buses of riot police in full gear; reports suggest the group may have dissipated in the late morning heat. The press was present and the protests have been covered in local media. Contacts suggest the group intends to continue the protest and some suggest the numbers may grow with each new gathering -- likely during the more mild temperatures of the morning and evening timeframes. Editorials note tensions -------------- ¶4. (U) In an editorial, the English daily Khaleej Times said "these protests should come as a wake-up call to Iran's leaders since more than 70 per cent of the country's population is below 30 years of age and was born after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. These are the groups - students and youths - that played a critical role in the revolution ... there is a clear yearning for change in the Iranian society." It went on to say that Iranian leaders need to determine why young people are so restless and that it is clearly not just about vote fraud. Another editorial in the same paper called for Ahmadinejad to address "domestic economic concerns" which he had previously dismissed as "a propaganda ploy of anti-revolutionary forces". ¶5. (U) English daily Gulf News offered the headline: "Ahmadinejad Set to Clash with Obama". It editorialized that the two main issues in the election were Ahmadinejad's "terrible handling" of the economy and his "deliberate antagonism of the United Sates over Iran's nuclear plans". It surmised that Ahmadinejad's electoral victory would most certainly lead him to "exaggerate his stance" and the Obama administration would be "stuck with an Iranian president who is not interested in seeking its approval and enjoys taunting it". ¶6. (U) Local Arabic dailies similarly offered factual reporting and various editorial comment. A Saudi writer in Al Ittihad commented "The gap between the Iranian people and the political leadership is widening as the people's ambitions differ completely from those of the leadership. The people want a blossoming economy and open freedom; the leadership wants regional influence and a nuclear program." Another paper, Al Khaleej, said "Some in power in Iran fear that the dialogue of the U.S. Administration will divide leading Iranian factions and harm the ideological coherence of the Iranian revolution...Obama's era will definitely be critical in Iran. It has already shown its impact through the current crisis of the Iranian elections; this may only be the beginning." OLSON