UAE LEADERSHIP CONGRATULATES AHMADINEJAD AMIDST PROTESTS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 000608


FOR NEA/ARP and NEA/IR

E.O. 12958: DECL: (####)
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO IR AE
SUBJECT: UAE LEADERSHIP CONGRATULATES AHMADINEJAD AMIDST PROTESTS AND
NEGATIVE EDITORIALS

Classified by Ambassador Richard Olson, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment: Amid straightforward press reporting of
ongoing protests over the Iranian presidential election results, the
UAEG's official news agency WAM issued a statement June 15 noting
that UAE President Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan had cabled a
congratulatory message to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (text in para two).
Meanwhile, non-violent gatherings by Iranians at their Consulate
General in Dubai continue to protest the results (para three). UAE
newspaper editorials note Ahmadinejad's triumph while pointing to
ongoing protests as a wakeup call highlighting the gap between the
Iranian leadership and the public. There has been no press mention
of the impact on UAE-Iran relations. Comment: The UAE's cable of
congratulations was likely a Pavlovian response to a new Government,
rather than any carefully thought out signal of approval for
Ahmadinajad or the electoral process. Being completely unfamiliar
with elections, and altogether too familiar with Persians, the UAE is
likely to tread lightly on things Iranian, even in dealing with
street protests that are theoretically illegal. End summary and
comment.

Congratulatory statement
--------------


2. (U) Begin text of June 15 WAM statement: President His Highness
Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan in a cable congratulated Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on winning a second term in the recent
Iranian election. Vice President and Prime Minister of UAE and Ruler
of Dubai His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum has sent
a similar cable of congratulations to the Iranian leader. End text.

Street protests in Dubai
--------------


3. (SBU) With a large Iranian expatriate community in Dubai,
protests around the Iranian consulate drew what some participants
estimated as 500 persons on the morning of June 15, following a
smaller gathering the morning prior. Protestors had large placards,
wore green, and were reportedly quite vocal. Asked to disperse by
Dubai police (for lack of a permit to gather),the protestors engaged
in a friendly face-off with buses of riot police in full gear;
reports suggest the group may have dissipated in the late morning
heat. The press was present and the protests have been covered in
local media. Contacts suggest the group intends to continue the
protest and some suggest the numbers may grow with each new gathering
-- likely during the more mild temperatures of the morning and
evening timeframes.

Editorials note tensions
--------------


4. (U) In an editorial, the English daily Khaleej Times said "these
protests should come as a wake-up call to Iran's leaders since more
than 70 per cent of the country's population is below 30 years of age
and was born after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. These are the
groups - students and youths - that played a critical role in the
revolution ... there is a clear yearning for change in the Iranian
society." It went on to say that Iranian leaders need to determine
why young people are so restless and that it is clearly not just
about vote fraud. Another editorial in the same paper called for
Ahmadinejad to address "domestic economic concerns" which he had
previously dismissed as "a propaganda ploy of anti-revolutionary
forces".


5. (U) English daily Gulf News offered the headline: "Ahmadinejad
Set to Clash with Obama". It editorialized that the two main issues
in the election were Ahmadinejad's "terrible handling" of the economy
and his "deliberate antagonism of the United Sates over Iran's
nuclear plans". It surmised that Ahmadinejad's electoral victory
would most certainly lead him to "exaggerate his stance" and the
Obama administration would be "stuck with an Iranian president who is
not interested in seeking its approval and enjoys taunting it".


6. (U) Local Arabic dailies similarly offered factual reporting and
various editorial comment. A Saudi writer in Al Ittihad commented
"The gap between the Iranian people and the political leadership is
widening as the people's ambitions differ completely from those of
the leadership. The people want a blossoming economy and open
freedom; the leadership wants regional influence and a nuclear
program." Another paper, Al Khaleej, said "Some in power in Iran
fear that the dialogue of the U.S. Administration will divide leading
Iranian factions and harm the ideological coherence of the Iranian
revolution...Obama's era will definitely be critical in Iran. It has
already shown its impact through the current crisis of the Iranian
elections; this may only be the beginning."


OLSON