ABU DHABI OPTIMISTIC ON GLOBAL ECONOMY, NOT

S E C R E T ABU DHABI 000127


STATE FOR EB
TREASURY FOR IA

E.O. 12958: DNG: CO 02/01/2029
TAGS: AE ECON IR
SUBJECT: ABU DHABI OPTIMISTIC ON GLOBAL ECONOMY, NOT
CURRENTLY AIDING DUBAI

Classified By: Ambassador Olson for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (S) Summary. On 1 February 2009, Ambassador Olson met with
Hamad al Hurr al Suwaidi, the effective head of Abu Dhabi's
Department of Finance and board member of Abu Dhabi's largest
sovereign wealth fund the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
(ADIA). Hamad expressed optimism about recovery prospects for
the global economy, expected a gradual resumption of investor
risk appetite in the near term and dismissed reports that
Dubai has requested financial assistance from Abu Dhabi.
Hamad praised the statements emanating from the November G-20
-- particularly those rejecting protectionism -- and
reaffirmed the UAE's interest in contributing constructively
to the global recovery effort. End Summary.

GLOBAL ECONOMY AND ABU DHABI BORROWING
--------------


2. (C) Regarding the global economy, Hamad stated that Abu
Dhabi expects a stabilizing in U.S. growth numbers which will
lead the global recovery process. He cited recent figures
indicating positive real disposable income numbers in the
U.S., held steady by falling energy prices and favorable
mortgage refinancings even in the face of rising
unemployment. On Abu Dhabi growth prospects, Hamad said that
in the UAE banking system, 80% of deposits are owned by
Emiratis who make up only 20% of the population. As a result,
in order to sustain domestic growth, funds must be attracted
from abroad or come from the government. He confirmed that
the government of Abu Dhabi has stepped in to provide
additional capital to Abu Dhabi banks in order to fill the
gap left by tight international credit markets, flight to
quality and the end of dirham speculation. These measures
supplement the liquidity facilities implemented by the UAE
Central Bank.


3. (C) Hamad stated that globally, the corporate borrowing
numbers for January looked much improved, and that according
to Abu Dhabi's investment bank advisors, strong emerging
market borrowers such as Abu Dhabi may be well positioned to
tap international credit markets in the near term. He said
that Abu Dhabi is considering using its AA credit rating to
borrow on behalf of Abu Dhabi banks and government backed
entities, assuming market conditions hold. Hamad believes
that embattled emerging market borrowers such as Russia will
face significant challenges obtaining overseas funding in the
current environment.


4. (C) Hamad was not concerned by the amount of public sector
borrowing being contemplated globally for the various bailout
and stimulus packages. He noted that with the current loss of
risk appetite, someone has to borrow to sustain economic
activity. However, with money market funds and institutional
investors sitting on historically high levels of low yielding
cash and cash equivalents, and leading indicators suggesting
economic stabilization approaching, Abu Dhabi expects credit
markets to further thaw. In the mean time, Hamad did not find
unreasonable the prospect that U.S. stimulus and bailout out
numbers could reach double current projected estimates.


5. (C) Hamad looked favorably upon recent USG measures to
ring fence bad assets at Bank of America, and welcomed
similarly structured measures as an effective method to
stabilize the banking sector, restore confidence and
stimulate lending. He remains optimistic about Citibank's
prospects once it completes reorganization and weathers the
current economic storm.

ABU DHABI NOT CURRENTLY AIDING DUBAI
--------------


6. (S) Asked about recent comments from UAE Federal National
Council and Mashreqbank head Abdul Aziz al Ghurair
encouraging Abu Dhabi to spend some of its huge reserves on
domestic projects, Hamad responded 'wishful thinking.' Hamad
stated that Abu Dhabi estimates Dubai debt to be between
USD$80-90 billion, but that Dubai has not approached the
Emirate of Abu Dhabi for financial assistance. He mentioned
ongoing conversations regarding Dubai's refinancing of its
Bourse Dubai debt, whose origins predate Dubai's financial
woes, but that to date financial terms had not been agreed to
by the two sides.

G-20
--------------


7. (C) Hamad praised the final statement of the G-20 November
meetings, in particular its calls to resist protectionism
which Hamad identified as a key ingredient that worsened the
great depression of the 1930s. He encouraged a coordinated
global response to this global problem, and suggested that
key emerging market countries, such as the UAE, had much to
contribute to the recovery process and the accompanying
international dialogue. Hamad encouraged the U.S. to include
the UAE in future discussions via UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh
Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan.

ABU DHABI REAL ESTATE MARKET
--------------


8. (U) Hamad stated that the Government of Abu Dhabi has been
closely following pricing in the Abu Dhabi real estate
market, and has actually monitored a small decline in rental
prices for the first two weeks of January -- a welcome
reprieve to soaring rental prices that have plagued Abu
Dhabi's economy for the last couple years. Hamad believes
that long term housing demand in Abu Dhabi will remain
strong. He cited several government backed projects that will
require large numbers of housing units, including the
expansion of Etihad Airways, the Masdar initiative and the
AMD chip foundry.


OLSON