SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT AND ATTENDANCE AT THE 2009 DUBAI

S E C R E T ABU DHABI 001067 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2019 TAGS: PGOVPRELMARRMOPS SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT AND ATTENDANCE AT THE 2009 DUBAI AIR SHOW Classified by Ambassador Richard Olson, reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) US Embassy Abu Dhabi and US Consulate General Dubai warmly welcome your visit to UAE to attend the 2009 Dubai Air Show. -------------- Air Show Highlights -------------- ¶2. (U) The Dubai Air Show is the third largest event of its type and is touted by the UAE as the foremost aerospace event in the Middle East as well as the fastest growing in the world. The Dubai Air Show is seen by many as a leading indicator of the health of the aviation market in the Middle East. German analytic firm Frost and Sullivan predict defense spending in the Middle East may well exceed $100 billion by 2014 or 11 percent of global arms orders. Dubai is dedicating over one-third of the exhibition space this year to defense companies. The show is expected to attract approximately 900 exhibitors from up to 50 countries and host 13 pavilions from Austria, Belgium, Canada, Florida, France, Germany, Jordan, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Ukraine, the UK, and the United States. To date distinguished visitors are scheduled to visit the air show representing the GCC, Africa, the Levant, West Asia, India, and Western nations. Over 1300 journalists are expected. ¶3. (SBU) Expected high-level UAE participants include: the Air show host, Ruler of Dubai, UAE Vice President, and Prime Minister, Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum; the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan; President of Dubai Civil Aviation Authority His Highness Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed al Maktoum; and Chief of Staff of the UAE Armed Forces, Lt Gen Hamad Mohammed Thani Al Rumaithi. As in past years, the Air Show provides an excellent opportunity to expand bilateral military relations, as well as promote U.S. defense and civil aviation interests. ¶4. (U) The USAF's F-22 is being advertised as the premier military aircraft participating in the air show. Other US military aircraft on display include the F-16, F-15E, C-17, WC-130J, E-8C, and B1B. The EU will present the Eurofighter, Rafale, and EAD's HAP Tiger Helicopter. China presents the L-15 jet trainer, and Italy the C-27J plus the Aermacchi and Alpha jet trainers. Many commercial aircraft from these and other nations will be on hand as well. -------------- Escalating Influence -------------- ¶5. (C) Over the past five years the UAE has emerged as a regional powerhouse, using its financial clout and diplomatic activism to expand its influence from North Africa through the Levant to the Indian Sub-Continent, and indeed globally in financial circles. The bilateral relationship has been carefully nurtured from a strong mil-mil base emerging out of the first Gulf war into a much broader relationship in which the full range of USG Agencies work closely with Emirati counterparts. Our trade relations have grown (the UAE is our largest export market in the Middle East region) and although the UAE, and particularly Dubai, is feeling the pinch of the global financial crisis, we have not seen an immediate impact in the security field. Abu Dhabi's oil reserves generally suffice to keep defense programs on track, although some discretionary construction projects may be slowed down. In the broader economy, the frenzied pace of construction which we saw a year ago has slowed considerably. -------------- UAE and the Region -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) Iran: The UAE leadership sees Iran as its primary external threat, and one that is existential in nature. Like the rest of the international community, the UAE finds the idea of an Iran with nuclear weapons unacceptable and thinks this eventuality would lead to nuclear arms race in the Middle East. At least as worrying to Emiratis is Iran's aspirations for regional hegemony, which it realizes through terrorist proxies (Hizballah, HAMAS, possibly underground organizations in the Arab Gulf countries). Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ) is skeptical that Iran can be convinced to end its nuclear weapons program, and is not convinced that the international community will adopt tough sanctions. In other words, he sees the logic of war dominating the region, and this thinking explains his near obsessive efforts to build up his armed forces and the Critical National Infrastructure Authority (CNIA). ¶7. (S) Iraq: the UAE was the first GCC Country to cancel Saddam era debt and to re-establish an embassy. Other GCC nations followed suit. The country is supportive of Iraqi participation in the GCC+3. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) has met with PM Maliki and is supportive of the US security agreement with Iraq. ¶8. (S) Afghanistan: UAE SOF has been quietly deployed as part of OEF since 2002, and has recently come out publicly concerning contingency operations (UAE is permitting press coverage emphasizing a humanitarian mission). The country plans to deploy SOF aviation components to Afghanistan (4 x AH-64 Apache Longbows, 3 x UH-60 Blackhawks, and 1 x Twin Otter). The Crown Prince views the Afghan deployment as a way of transforming and hardening his forces, but also recognizes the political imperative for moderate Arabs to publicly support the fight against Al-Qaida and the Taliban. Additionally, Emirati ground forces deployed one Mechanized Infantry Battalion and a SEEKER 2 UAV to Afghanistan earlier this year to provide security support for national elections. ¶9. (C) Pakistan: the UAE has taken a leading role in the Friends of Pakistan initiative pledging $300 million in assistance at the Tokyo Conference. The Al Nahyan family had a long-standing relationship with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, and this has transitioned to support for her husband, Asif Ali Zardari. Recently the UAE donated 14 Puma helicopters to Pakistan via third-party transfer. -------------- Mil-Mil Relations -------------- ¶10. (S/NF) The UAE provides critical (not publicized) support for several military component commands in the CENTCOM AOR. -- Al-Dhafra Air Force Base is the high altitude ISR hub for the AOR, and supports 50 percent of aerial refueling in the AOR. -- Dubai and Fujairah ports in the Northern Emirates are the logistics backbone for the U.S. Fifth Fleet and commercial trade. Jebel Ali is the major U.S. military liberty port. Fujairah port is a major trans-shipment hub to support Afghanistan military operations. -- Minhad Air Base is a critical hub for Coalition/ISAF partners in Afghanistan, including the Australians, Dutch, Canadians, Brits and Kiwis. ¶11. (S) The UAE is currently reviewing a request by the U.S. to provide U.S. access to Liwa (Safran) Air Base in support of contingency operations in Afghanistan. UAE officials have approved the initiation of a site survey. Additionally, the UAE is considering hosting the Regional Integrated Air and Missile Defense Center of Excellence. Initial discussions between AFCENT/CC, Lt Gen Hostage, and UAEAF Chief of Staff, Maj Gen Sowaidon have been positive. No decisions have been reached by the country. ¶12. (C) Security Assistance is a cornerstone of our relationship. The UAE is a cash customer with FMS sales in excess of $11 billion. Commercial sales have an equivalent value. An additional $12 billion of FMS cases are in development with approximately the same number of commercial sales in the works. -- The UAE recently purchased nine (9) Patriot batteries, and expects to move forward on the purchase of THAAD, the first country outside the US to purchase the system. -- The major FMS/DCS systems are: Hawk, F-16, Weapons (JDAM, Hellfire, Maverick, LGB, cluster, HARM, Harpoon),HIMARS, AH-64, UH-60 M/L, AOC operating system, Patriot, C-130, CH-47, Shared Early Warning (SEW),CENTRIXS, NVGs, land vehicles, and small arms. -- The following systems have been requested and are in various stages of FMS and DCS development: 3 x THAAD, 24 x RQ8 Firescout, 4(+2) x C-17 Globemaster, 12 x C-130J, satellites/imagery, 16 x CH-47F (4 via DCS),XM-982 Excalibur, XM-1156 PGK, 5000 X GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb, E-2D Hawkeye, Boeing Wedgetail, AOC system upgrade, Link-16 integration on all appropriate platforms/ground facilities, Stinger/Avenger /VMSLP, MRAP, critical national infrastructure protection, and Head of State missile ASE. -- The UAE maintains an active exercise schedule with U.S. and other multi-lateral partners. They participate in 10-12 U.S. sponsored exercises annually which helps assure interoperability and builds capability. -- The coming year will see a significant plus up in U.S. training to meet UAE defense requirements. An influx of 110 DoD personnel is anticipated to support installation and training of FMS systems to include Patriot, THAAD, and HIMARS. -- A new lease at Piers 60-61 in Jebel Ali was concluded 4 Sep. Lease includes fixed 5-year provision for first phase and optional 4-year follow-on phase. The real estate involved is a prime corner of the Jebel Ali port and keeps USN interests in adjacent areas. -------------- Outstanding Opportunity for Pol Mil and Mil-to-Mil Relations -------------- ¶13. (C) The Dubai Air Show is one of the premier events in the Middle East and provides US leaders with the opportunity to interact with numerous foreign senior defense officers, government officials, and industry chiefs. This activity is the capstone to several other major events occurring in conjunction with the air show and includes the Middle East Air Symposium, The Dubai International Air Chiefs Conference, and the Middle East Air Forces Coalition Safety Conference. In all it will make for a challenging but extremely productive week. Above all, these activities highlight the ever increasing role and growing influence of the UAE within the region. As in the past, we anticipate the Dubai Air Show will provide an outstanding forum to champion U.S. bilateral relations and to showcase defense equipment. We look forward to seeing you there. OLSON