IVORIAN VIEWS ON GUINEA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000627 E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019 TAGS: PREL MARR GV IV SUBJECT: IVORIAN VIEWS ON GUINEA Classified By: Ambassador Wanda Nesbitt for Reasons 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Ivorian government shares the USG view that Dadis Camara cannot be a candidate for president and is working with Burkina Faso president Blaise Compaore to persuade Camara to abandon presidential ambitions. President Gbagbo prefers to maintain a low profile with regard to Guinea and will refrain from making strong public statements about the situation in Guinea, but will support ECOWAS efforts to resolve the situation. End Summary ¶2. (C) In the course of an October 22 meeting with President Gbagbo's diplomatic advisor, Alcide Djeje, Ambassador expressed USG concerns about the situation in GUINEA and asked about Ivorian views, noting that President Gbagbo had made no public statements at all about developments there. (Gbagbo also did not attend the October 18 ECOWAS Heads of State meeting on Guinea.) Djedje, who is a reliable conveyor of President Gbagbo's views, emphasized that the Ivorian perspective is driven by the fact that it has a 500 kilometer border with GUINEA and seeks to the greatest extent possible to maintain a peaceful relationship. Cote d'Ivoire, he said, agrees that Camara must not be allowed to run for the presidency and will work closely with ECOWAS to achieve this goal. ¶3. (C) Djedje added that President Gbagbo looks at GUINEA from a historian's view, and sees a country that has long had dictatorial regimes and weak political parties. In his view, the military has, and will continue to play an important role in Guinean politics, with or without Dadis Camara, because it is one of the strongest forces in Guinean society. Gbagbo tends to favor a longer, rather than shorter, transition period (assuming Camara agrees not to run) to allow time for wounds inflicted since the military took over to heal. Gbagbo fears that actions that cause the Guinean military to feel isolated could be counterproductive and as a result, prefers not to condemn them publicly. Gbagbo is also very conscious of the ethnic factor: in addition to being home to over 1 million Guineans, Cote d'Ivoire's native Malinke population retains strong family and cultural ties to Guinea. 4.(C) Summing up, Djedje assured Ambassador that the GoCI is paying very close attention to developments in GUINEA and understands the USG's position. The GOCI is in communication with Guinean officials, and is working closely with President Compaore to keep events in GUINEA from destabilizing the region. ¶5. (C) Comment: The Ivorian government beefed-up security along the border with GUINEA several months ago and remains on high alert. Our acting Defense Attache learned this week that the GOCI has placed 9 platoons in the northeast city of Odienne to help monitor the border with Guinea. UNOCI has reportedly agreed to start doing daily patrols in addition to periodic overflights to detect signs of large refugee movements. A flight conducted on October 19 picked up no sign of refugees. In addition to Amb. Djedje's comments, post notes that President Gbagbo has just launched his re-election campaign and probably sees little domestic political benefit to be gained from playing a more visible role with regard to Guinea unless the situation there changes significantly. NESBITT