IVORIAN VIEWS ON GUINEA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000627


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: PREL MARR GV IV
SUBJECT: IVORIAN VIEWS ON GUINEA

Classified By: Ambassador Wanda Nesbitt for Reasons 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: The Ivorian government shares the USG view
that Dadis Camara cannot be a candidate for president and is
working with Burkina Faso president Blaise Compaore to
persuade Camara to abandon presidential ambitions. President
Gbagbo prefers to maintain a low profile with regard to
Guinea and will refrain from making strong public statements
about the situation in Guinea, but will support ECOWAS
efforts to resolve the situation. End Summary


2. (C) In the course of an October 22 meeting with President
Gbagbo's diplomatic advisor, Alcide Djeje, Ambassador
expressed USG concerns about the situation in Guinea and
asked about Ivorian views, noting that President Gbagbo had
made no public statements at all about developments there.
(Gbagbo also did not attend the October 18 ECOWAS Heads of
State meeting on Guinea.) Djedje, who is a reliable conveyor
of President Gbagbo's views, emphasized that the Ivorian
perspective is driven by the fact that it has a 500 kilometer
border with Guinea and seeks to the greatest extent possible
to maintain a peaceful relationship. Cote d'Ivoire, he said,
agrees that Camara must not be allowed to run for the
presidency and will work closely with ECOWAS to achieve this
goal.


3. (C) Djedje added that President Gbagbo looks at Guinea
from a historian's view, and sees a country that has long had
dictatorial regimes and weak political parties. In his view,
the military has, and will continue to play an important role
in Guinean politics, with or without Dadis Camara, because it
is one of the strongest forces in Guinean society. Gbagbo
tends to favor a longer, rather than shorter, transition
period (assuming Camara agrees not to run) to allow time for
wounds inflicted since the military took over to heal. Gbagbo
fears that actions that cause the Guinean military to feel
isolated could be counterproductive and as a result, prefers
not to condemn them publicly. Gbagbo is also very conscious
of the ethnic factor: in addition to being home to over 1
million Guineans, Cote d'Ivoire's native Malinke population
retains strong family and cultural ties to Guinea.

4.(C) Summing up, Djedje assured Ambassador that the GoCI is
paying very close attention to developments in Guinea and
understands the USG's position. The GOCI is in communication
with Guinean officials, and is working closely with President
Compaore to keep events in Guinea from destabilizing the
region.


5. (C) Comment: The Ivorian government beefed-up security
along the border with Guinea several months ago and remains
on high alert. Our acting Defense Attache learned this week
that the GOCI has placed 9 platoons in the northeast city of
Odienne to help monitor the border with Guinea. UNOCI has
reportedly agreed to start doing daily patrols in addition to
periodic overflights to detect signs of large refugee
movements. A flight conducted on October 19 picked up no
sign of refugees. In addition to Amb. Djedje's comments, post
notes that President Gbagbo has just launched his re-election
campaign and probably sees little domestic political benefit
to be gained from playing a more visible role with regard to
Guinea unless the situation there changes significantly.

NESBITT