UNOCI SAYS DDR UNLIKELY BEFORE ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000430

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KDEM KPKO UN IV
SUBJECT: UNOCI SAYS DDR UNLIKELY BEFORE ELECTION

REF: A. ABIDJAN 411

B. 08 ABIDJAN 878

C. 08 ABIDJAN 870

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Silvia Eiriz for reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary. Ouaga IV (the fourth supplementary agreement
to the Ouagadougou Political Agreement (OPA)) calls for
disarmament of the Forces Nouvelles (FAFN) and dismantlement
of the militias to be completed two months before the
presidential election, currently scheduled to be held on
November 29, 2009. According to the United Nations Operation
in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI),there is no political will for the
FAFN to disarm before the election and, while the militias
have officially been dismantled, they could quickly be
reactivated. In spite of this, UNOCI believes it is possible
to have an election free of violence as long as all the
political parties have the will to do so. End Summary.

DDR and Ouaga IV
--------------


2. (SBU) According to UNOCI, 11,766 FAFN troops were
"regrouped" between December 22, 2007 and October 22, 2008
(7,701 were demobilized and the other 4,065 are slated to
join the country's new army) and 17,292 militia members were
dismantled between February 2 and May 30, 2009. Ouaga IV
provides that the Integrated Command Center (ICC) carries out
demobilization/dismantlement under the supervision of the
"impartial forces" (UNOCI and the French Licorne troops).
Ouaga IV also provides that a new national army will be stood
up within one month of the inauguration of the next President.

Militia Easy to Reactivate
--------------


3. (C) Militia leaders provided the ICC with lists of their
members. The ICC took the photograph and fingerprints of
each militia member it demobilized and issued each one a
demobilization card. Sidi Zahabi, Chief of UNOCI's
Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reinsertion (DDR) division,
told Poloff on July 14 that a database of the structure of
the militias as well as their members now exists. He
informed Poloff that the ICC retrieved cards from militia
members issued to them by the national military which
identified them as supporters of the military. Zahabi said
retrieval of the cards was important because they gave the
militia members power over civilians, for example for
securing bribes at illegal checkpoints. Zahabi's staff
showed Poloff scanned copies of the cards which looked very
official and which were marked "Republic of Cote d'Ivoire"
and included the country's motto. According to UNOCI, the
only weapons collected from the militia were: 5 firearms,
7,077 small caliber munitions, 2 large caliber munitions, and
28 grenades. These weapons are now held in containers by the
ICC in their headquarters in Yamoussoukro. Zahabi said he
believes the militias turned over most of their weapons to
the Ivoirian military. He said it would be easy to
reactivate the militias and have the military re-arm them.
Zahabi said another danger is that the dismantled militia
members are awaiting receipt of the 500,000 CFA (circa USD
1,000) promised to them by Ouaga IV, but which the government
now seems unwilling to pay. (Comment: The fact that cards
were issued by the military to the militias underscores that
they were not independent groups, but were and could again be
mobilized by elements in the government. End Comment.)

No DDR Before Elections
--------------


4. (C) Zahabi told Poloff that, although Ouaga IV says DDR
must be completed two months before the presidential
election, there is no political will to do so. Zahabi said
the FAFN do not want to disarm before identification and
voter registration cards are distributed (See Reftel A). He
added that the FAFN also want to postpone DDR in order to
make a deal with whoever is elected president to ensure that
their concerns are taken into account. One of the causes of
the 2002 FAFN rebellion was discrimination against and
disenfranchisement of northerners.


5. (C) Zahabi dismissed the May 26 ceremony marking the
transfer of power from the FAFN zone commanders (comzones) to
the prefects as symbolic. Zahabi noted that unified revenue
collection has not been implemented and the comzones continue
to profit from customs duties and tax revenue. Zahabi added
that security also remains in the comzones' hands since of
the 8,000 police and gendarmes to be deployed in ICC "mixed"
units (4,000 FAFN members and 4,000 members of the government
security forces),only 500 have been deployed to date: 400 in
Bouake and 100 in Abidjan.

ABIDJAN 00000430 002 OF 002




6. (C) Zahabi believes peaceful elections can be held even
without disarmament of the FAFN as long as the political will
exists. Zahabi said he does not anticipate trouble on
election day in the area of the country under FAFN control
since there are only two major cities - Bouake and Korhogo -
in that region and their populations are generally expected
to vote for the RDR candidate. Zahabi noted that UNOCI will
ensure that the country's borders are closed on election day,
but explained that this will be done mostly to keep out
troublemakers rather than out of fear that large numbers of
citizens of neighboring counties will attempt to enter the
country and vote. Zahabi said that it is critical for the
political parties to be forced to abide by the provisions of
the Code of Good Conduct (devised via a USG-funded NDI
project) that they signed in the presence of the UN Secretary
General in Abidjan on April 24, 2008.


7. (C) Comment. Zahabi may be correct that an election free
of violence can be held even if the FAFN have not disarmed
and effectively remain in control of the northern part of the
country as long as the entire political class accepts this
scenario. However, Ouaga IV explicitly calls for DDR before
the election. Hardliners in the FPI have said an election is
not possible until DDR has taken place (See Reftels B & C).
Those who have an interest in delaying elections could easily
play this card.
NESBITT