PRAISE AND SKEPTICISM ACCOMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000315

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IV
SUBJECT: PRAISE AND SKEPTICISM ACCOMPANY ANNOUNCEMENT OF
ELECTION DATE

REF: ABIDJAN 300


1. (SBU) Summary. The Government of Cote d'Ivoire has
announced that the first round of the presidential election
will be held on November 29, 2009. This is generally
considered a positive development demonstrating that pressure
from the international community to hold elections bore
fruit. However, there is skepticism about whether this date
will be observed given the many tasks still to be concluded
including: completion of the identification/voter
registration process, compilation of an electoral list that
all key political parties accept, and disarmament completed
two months before the election. A Permanent Consultative
Framework (CPC) meeting will take place May 18 in Ouagadougou
to review the steps needed to keep the electoral calendar on
track. End Summary.


2. (U) Prime Minister Soro announced on May 14 that the
Council of Ministers had adopted a decree proposed by the
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) establishing November
29, 2009 as the date for the first round of the presidential
election. The decree provides that the polls will be open
that day, a Sunday, from seven a.m. to five p.m. The decree
also provides that if no candidate obtains an absolute
majority in the first round, a second round will be held
fifteen days after the proclamation by the Constitutional
Council of the final results of the first round. The two
candidates who obtain the largest numbers of votes will
participate in the second round. Victory in the second round
will be by a simple majority. This is in keeping with the
provisions of the Electoral Code adopted in 2000.


3. (U) The decree implicitly recognizes that this will be a
special post-crisis election by referring to an executive
order of May 5, 2005 that provides that the candidates of all
political parties that signed the Linas-Marcoussis peace
agreement will be eligible to run in this election. (This
should lay to rest any controversy over Henri Konan Bedie's
eligibility to run because of his age.) The decree also
refers to an executive order of April 14, 2008 that modifies
some provisions of the 2000 Electoral Code for this
particular election. For example, the new Article 52
requires the CEI to notify the UN SRSG and the OPA
Facilitator of all presidential candidacies.

REACTIONS MOSTLY POSITIVE BUT SKEPTICISM STILL HIGH
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Public reactions to the election date announcement
have been overwhelmingly positive although skepticism remains
high behind the scenes. Prime Minister Soro said the
November 29 date was "realistic." FPI party president Affi
N'Guessan said the date is "reasonable" and called for this
date to be respected. RDR party president Alassane Ouattara
said he had no objection to the date. PDCI party
vice-chairman Djedje Mady was one of the few to publicly
voice skepticism, observing that this is not the first time a
date has been set. Mady said he had doubts about whether the
November date would be respected. Reactions from the
international community have been positive. UNOCI issued a
statement congratulating the government of Cote d'Ivoire for
setting a date but stressing the need to push ahead with
reunification to ensure the election can be held.

CPC TO REVIEW NEXT STEPS
--------------


5. (SBU) The CPC, which comprises Presidents Gbagbo and
Compaore, Prime Minister Soro, Alassane Ouattara, and Henri
Bedie, will meet May 18 in Ouagadougou. They will reportedly
review each stage of the electoral process that must take
place between now and November 29. The first step will
clearly be completion of the identification/voter
registration process. Catch-up sessions to reach individuals
who did not register during the initial phase (see reftel)
are currently being conducted. Some registration centers
have never opened. Embassy understands that these centers
will operate from May 21 through June 4. Registration of
Ivoirians overseas is currently scheduled to be conducted
from June 11 to June 28. In recent months, neither the CEI
(Independent Electoral Commission) nor the FPI have
demonstrated a sense of urgency about moving the registration
process forward. Deadlines for completing the process have
repeatedly been missed and new pools of voters identified.
For example, the CEI has apparently just realized that many
prisoners who are waiting trial retain the right to vote. It
estimates that 6,000 prisoners in Abidjan's central prison,
not to mention an unknown number in thirty-two other prisons
nationwide, may need to be reached through the identification
process.


ABIDJAN 00000315 002 OF 002



6. (SBU) The CPC will also reportedly discuss reunification
of the country and the status of the deployment of the 'mixed
brigades' that will ultimately provide security for the
elections. Anecdotal reports indicate the deployments have
foundered over logistical issues such as where FDS soldiers
headed to the north are to be housed, etc.


7. (SBU) Comment. The announcement of an election date is a
positive development that indicates the government is still
responsive to international pressure. However, skepticism
that the November 29 date will be respected is widespread
among Ivoirians as well as within the diplomatic community.
The outcome of the CPC meeting in Ouagadougou will be an
important indicator of how confident the political parties
are about this date.
NESBITT