FACILITATOR'S REPRESENTATIVE SAYS KEEP PRESSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000185 E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON EAID IV SUBJECT: FACILITATOR'S REPRESENTATIVE SAYS KEEP PRESSING FOR ELECTIONS IN 2009 REF: A) ABIDJAN 122 Classified By: Ambassador Wanda L. Nesbitt for Reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a March 10 conversation, Ambassador Boureima Badini (Facilitator Blaise Compaore's representative in Abidjan) urged that the US and other donors keep pressing for elections in 2009. He expressed concern that the political will to hold elections has faded as it has become increasingly clear to the FPI that their chances of winning a fair election are slim. But, Badini stressed, there is no technical or logistical reason why elections can't be held in ¶2009. He hoped that a new date for the election would be set at the next CPC (Consultative Framework Mechanism) meeting, now anticipated in early April, and thought it would be helpful for the US and other governments to issue statements calling for elections this year. Ambassador agreed to explore with Washington the timing of such a statement. End Summary ELECTION DELAY REFLECTS THE FPI'S LACK OF CONFIDENCE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Badini applauded the international community's effort to get the Ivorians to commit to a timeframe for elections at the February 16 CEA meeting (see ref A) and urged more of the same. Although the effort was unsuccessful, Badini thought it important for the international community to keep the pressure on Pres. Gbagbo and to be vocal about the need for elections sooner rather than later. He told Ambassador that the FPI leadership now realizes that its representatives at the grassroots level have not done a very good job of mobilizing and registering FPI supporters. This is evidently one of the reasons that FPI hardliners, such as Martin Sokoury Bohui, the FPI's National Secretary for Elections, who last November called for the identification process in the north to be suspended due to "massive fraud", is now proclaiming that the process should continue until every Ivorian who wants to register has had a chance to do so. ¶3. (C) The CEI (Independent Electoral Commission) has stated that they cannot set a date for elections until the reconstitution of civil registries is completed. However, CEI President Mambe has stated (ref A) that if the reconstitution process was completed by the end of April, elections could be held by October. Badini expressed concern that while action to reconstitute these important registries has begun in some 
areas, no action is being taken in others. He saw the lack of movement as politically motivated. The committees that carry out the actual reconstitution process are chaired by the sub-prefects, Badini said, and those who are not working claim that they have not received the necessary orders from Minister of Interior Desire Tagro (a close ally of the president). Tagro's justification is apparently that the appropriate security mechanisms (i.e. the presence of mixed brigades) for the prefects and sub-prefects are not yet in place. Badini speculated that these kinds of delays are part of a strategy to buy time for President Gbagbo to try to improve his chances of winning. POSTPONEMENT OF HANDOVER CEREMONY -------------- ¶4. (C) Ambassador commented that this was the same justification Tagro had used to postpone the handover of administrative powers from the Forces Nouvelles (FAFN) to the government. Badini agreed but said the Forces Nouvelles was fundamentally at fault. The government has identified and given to Facilitator Compaore its list of 2,000 gendarmes who are being assigned to the mixed brigades, but the FAFN has yet to produce a list of the 3,400 elements it will contribute to these brigades. Badini was very frustrated with the FAFN over this issue, telling Ambassador that PM Soro had promised to produce the list at the March 4 ceremony, then failed to do so. He said it was easy for the government to refuse to send their police elements north as long as the Forces Nouvelles appeared unable to produce their presumed counterparts. Ambassador wondered if the delay was because the FAFN was finding it difficult to identify 3,400 soldiers interested in and qualified to do police work; Badini said sadly that he feared that was precisely the case. 2010 WILL BRING A NEW DYNAMIC -------------- ¶5. (C) Returning to the need to push the Ivorians to hold elections, the Facilitator's representative said he worries that the Ouagadougou peace process could peter out if Gbagbo and the FPI succeed in postponing elections until 2010. Badini noted that Blaise Compaore will be up for reelection in 2010 and will be forced to devote more time to domestic issues (including his campaign) and less time to the problems of Cote d'Ivoire. In Badini's view, the OPA's failure would also represent the failure of a homegrown, African conflict resolution effort, which he thought would be a very bad omen for the region. Ambassador noted that, according to Cote d'Ivoire's constitution, former president Bedie would be too old to remain a candidate in a 2010 election and that this, too, would change the dynamic. Badini agreed and said it was more likely than not that Gbagbo would champion the constitution over any previous peace agreement (e.g. the Linas-Marcoussis or Pretoria accords) and try to exclude Bedie from the race. In Badini's view, the president's camp has failed so far to break up the RHDP (an alliance between RDR leader Alassane Ouattara and PDCI leader Henri Bedie, literally Rassemblement des Houphouetistes pour la Democratie et la Paix) but continues to pursue this objective, and may now see an alliance with Bedie's successor as more feasible. Badini asserted that these factors, combined with the stalemate that the current political situation has created in many sectors and ministries, make it all the more important for the international community to continue to insist on elections as soon as possible. He thought a statement issued from Washington would be helpful. ¶6. (C) Comment: Although there are technical and logistical impediments to holding elections in 2009, I agree with Badini that these obstacles could be overcome in a matter of months if the political will to hold elections was strong. I also agree that a statement from Washington would be helpful. (It is likely that the Facilitator is also lobbying other countries to make statements.) If, as anticipated, Cote d'Ivoire reaches the HIPC decision point at the end of March, a statement by the Department shortly afterwards would be extremely timely. It would be a good opportunity to acknowledge the good things Cote d'Ivoire has done but also reiterate the need for elections and stipulate that we believe they can and should be held in 2009. Post will be pursuing this idea with AF/W. ¶7. (C) Comment Cont'd: It was evident that much of Badini's concern is for Burkina Faso president Compaore's reputation and their shared interest in being able to flag the OPA as a Burkinabe success story. But it is also true that Compaore remains one of the few leaders who appears to have real sway over President Gbagbo. It is certainly in Cote d'Ivoire's - and our - interest to see the crisis resolved as soon as possible. End Comment NESBITT