SERBIA: KOSOVO RESOLUTION DIVIDES GOVERNMENT, RADICALS MAY

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000222 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS ZAGREB SENDING FOR BELGRADE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KBTS KPAO SR MW KV SUBJECT: SERBIA: KOSOVO RESOLUTION DIVIDES GOVERNMENT, RADICALS MAY SEEK SPEAKER'S OUSTER REF: ZAGREB 198 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) A parliamentary majority of Prime Minister Kostunica's party and ultranationalist Radicals supported consideration of a resolution stating that Serbia should only join the European Union with Kosovo as its territory. Parliament's Speaker, from President Tadic's party, suspended session and referred the matter back to the government, prompting the Radicals to threaten that they would call for a vote on the Speaker's dismissal. Each of the ruling parties have also suggested that Serbia may hold a referendum on EU integration. End Summary. Resolution On Agenda -------------- ¶2. (U) On March 5, A majority in parliament voted in favor of considering the controversial Kosovo resolution reported in reftel. 133 of 250 Members of Parliament (MP) supported considering the text as the first item of business. The 133 were made up of MPs from the Radical Party (SRS),Prime Minister Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and the Socialist Party (SPS). As the opposition SRS and SPS were joined by the government's DSS, this served to sharpen divisions in the ruling coalition. SRS and DSS officials reiterated support for the text, which they said was in accordance with state policy on Kosovo. DS-G17 React -------------- ¶3. (U) Following the vote, the Speaker of Parliament, Oliver Dulic (DS),adjourned the session and referred the resolution to the GOS, which has not determined a position on the text. The DS and G17 Plus, which are in government with the DSS, have both publicly opposed the resolution. President Tadic told FoNet news agency that the Radicals aimed to "impede further EU negotiations" through the text, rather than "defend Kosovo." G17 Parliamentary Whip Suzana Grubjesic told poloff on March 5 that the vote in parliament demonstrated "schizophrenic democracy" as there were conflicting majorities in parliament (DSS-SRS-SPS) and in government (DS-DSS-G17). Prime Minister Kostunica can now decide whether the GOS will convene on March 6, and whether to have a vote on the resolution. DS and G17 together outnumber the DSS in government. Grubjesic said that "either way" the text will come back to parliament for a vote, which could be as late as June or July. SRS Asks to Dismiss Dulic -------------- ¶4. (U) SRS leader Tomislav Nikolic said he would formally seek a vote to dismiss Dulic because he adjourned parliament before debate on the resolution could take place. "Do not call for break of the session," Nikolic said during the March 5 session, "otherwise we will file the motion for your dismissal." "I will have you fall today, or I shall not live," Nikolic said. Legally, the Speaker is obligated to schedule a session for his own dismissal within 24 hours following an official motion. This must be supported by at least 30 MPs and there are 81 SRS MPs in parliament. Nikolic is likely waiting to see if Kostunica will support this motion to dismiss the Speaker before making an official motion in parliament. Dulic Worried -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Dulic's adviser said the situation was "very bad." Lidija Vasiljevic told poloff on March 5 that "the ball is in Kostunica's court" since the SRS would need DSS votes to dismiss Dulic. A worried Vasiljevic said Dulic had consulted President Tadic about options, but if Kostunica supported the measure it was "very likely" Dulic could be dismissed "as early as tomorrow [March 6]." EU Referendum -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The ruling parties have also discussed the possibility of holding a referendum to gauge the public's support for EU integration. As reported in reftel, this was first raised by Tadic's domestic adviser. On March 5, DSS spokesperson Andreja Mladenovic told the press that his party would support a referendum on "whether Serbia should enter the EU with or without Kosovo," a leading question. Dulic told Serbian daily Danas on March 5 that the DS would support a referendum if it became clear that the GOS was unable to achieve its guiding principles, such as EU integration. Dulic said that President Tadic's reelection on February 3 had shown Serbian citizens "opted for the EU." Similarly, G17 vice president Tomica Milosavljevic told the press on March 4 that Serbians "already expressed their stand in the presidential elections when the convincing majority was won by a pro-European candidate." Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Kostunica has again outmaneuvered Tadic and is back in a position of strength. He can use the SRS resolution to raise the stakes, convening the GOS and seeing if the DS-G17 majority will outvote the DSS. Kostunica's option of supporting the SRS to dismiss Dulic could strengthen his position in GOS deliberations. Dulic has shown guts to stand up to Kostunica over the past few weeks and his dismissal would be a seismic political event. End Comment. MUNTER