LUNCH AT THE EC: CONCERN ABOUT POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000931 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018 TAGS: POGV PHUM PREL ASEC KDEM EUN FR AJ TU AM SUBJECT: LUNCH AT THE EC: CONCERN ABOUT POLITICAL SITUATION; QUESTIONS ABOUT SARKOZY ROLE ON N-K REF: YEREVAN 874 Classified By: Amabassador Marie Yovanovitch. Reason 1.4 (B/D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Over a welcome lunch for Ambassador with Ambassadors representing European Commission member countries in Yerevan, EC Ambassador Raul de Luzenberger provided a briefing on the November 5-6 visit of President Sargsian to the European Commission in Brussels. French Ambassador Serge Smessow also provided a small readout of Sargsian's Paris visit and suggested that it was "too early" to tell whether President Sarkozy would take a personal role in the Nagorno-Karabkah negotiations. END SUMMARY -------------- -------------- SARGSIAN "UNFORTHCOMING" ON DIALOGUE WITH OPPOSITION -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) De Luzenberger, chief of the European Commission Delegation in Yerevan, said President Sargsian's trip to the EC was excellent. There is a confluence of views on all areas, including Russia, Turkey, and Nagorno-Karabkah. The only issue where there is disagreement is on the March 1 events. He said that EC External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrera-Waldner suggested to Sargsian that de Luzenberger could mediate between the opposition and the government and help start a constructive dialogue. De Luzenberger, who said he opposed the EC taking such a role, "toned down the idea as being from Brussels." In any event, he said the President was "not forthcoming," and de Luzenberger does not believe the idea will take off. French Ambassador Smessow intervened that the Slovenians had recently suggested a formal dialogue on Human Rights, which "boils down to the same thing," but this idea is still being internally discussed by the EC. ¶3. (C) After some discussion of the March 1 detainees, Polish Ambassador Tomas Knothe emphasized that, "If the West fails on this (encouraging a political decision to release the detainees),we fail on everything." Separately, a number of European interlocutors have advised us that it is likely that PACE will suspend Armenian membership in January. (COMMENT: Ambassador Knothe, after nearly five years in country, is a seasoned and insightful local observer. He is expected to become dean of the diplomatic corps in January ¶2009. END COMMENT) -------------- SARKOZY ROLE ON N-K? -------------- ¶4. (C) Smessow also shared with the group that Sargsian's trip to France on November 4 was successful, "as all these trips are." He said Sargsian, fresh from the Moscow meeting of the Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia, was positive on the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations and the Moscow Declaration. Smessow said that President Sarkozy would soon make a trip to the region, as he is interested in the issues. Smessow said it was too soon to discuss whether Sarkozy would personally mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but that the President had shown "personal interest." COMMENT: Whether deliberately or not, Smessow's body language conveyed that Sarkozy's personal intervention is very much on the table. END COMMENT. YOVANOVITCH